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油价下跌对世界经济不利
Oil recently dropped below 70 dollars a barrel for the first time since 2010 and many Americans are rejoicing. Having cheaper gas is a good thing, right?
最近，油价自2010年以来首次下跌至每桶70美元以下。许多美国人弹冠相庆。油价便宜了是好事，对吗？
Well, maybe not. A lot of countries and micro economies may stop functioning if oil prices dip too low. One of the biggest examples is Russia. Since the most recent drop in oil prices, Russia’s currency, the ruble, saw the biggest one-day decline since 1998. This is because oil and natural gas make up about 70% of the country’s exports, the second highest in the world, and Russia gets more than half of its budget from oil revenues. This drop ensures more financial hardships and less economic growth in a country already dealing with numerous international sanctions.
或许并非如此。如果油价下跌至过低的水平，许多国家和微观经济体或许会停止运作。其中一个最典型的例子就是俄罗斯。自最近的油价下跌以来，俄罗斯货币卢布见证了自1998年以来单日最大贬值幅度。这是由于石油和天然气占据俄罗斯出口总额的大约70%，排在世界第二位。俄罗斯超过一半的预算来自石油收益。油价下跌导致这个原本已经面临诸多国际制裁的国家遭遇更多的财政困境，经济发展进一步受限。
Some argue that the combination of the economic loss plus the estimated 40 billion Russia is losing from sanctions might put enough pressure on Vladimir Putin to end his conflict with Ukraine. But it’s not likely. Putin has been quoted being optimistic about his country's oil problems, citing the upcoming winter which will bring cold weather and with it, a higher demand for oil. But this is strictly speculation and history may have a way of repeating itself.
一些人辩称，油价造成的经济损失和俄罗斯在制裁中损失的大约400亿美元或许会给普京施加足够的压力，让他结束与乌克兰的冲突。但是这不太可能。媒体报道引用普京的话说，他对国家的石油问题非常乐观，称即将到来的寒冬天气会带来石油需求的增加。但这只是猜测，历史或许会重演。
Many blame the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1980’s partly on a decline in oil prices.
许多人认为上世纪80年代苏联的解体是由于油价的下跌。
Other major oil producing nations, like Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela have their own struggles.
其他主要的石油生产国，比如伊朗，尼日利亚和委内瑞拉都面临着自己的困难。
In fact, Venezuela’s economic woes have already led to countrywide violent rioting.
实际上，委内瑞拉的经济灾难已经导致全国范围的暴力动乱。
The country is suffering from high levels of inflation,which has led to a scarcity of simple products like toilet paper and toothpaste. One analyst was quoted saying that for Venezuela to be able to balance its budget, oil prices would need to hit $200 a barrel. The money lost from the new drops in oil prices has forced the government to make major
cuts and increase taxes, something that will not help ease the unrest.
委内瑞拉遭遇高水平的通货膨胀，导致厕纸和牙膏等简单商品稀缺。一位分析人士说，委内瑞拉要平衡预算，油价需要上升到200美元一桶。石油价格新一轮下跌迫使政府进一步削减预算，增加税收，这只会让动荡进一步加剧。
So, lower oil prices could cause entire countries to fail, but they aren’t the only people affected. Lower oil prices could also hurt the fracking industry and put thousands of Americans out of work.
所以，石油价格下跌会给整个国家带来困难，但是受到影响的不仅仅是人民。石油价格下跌还会危害水力压裂行业，让数十万美国人失业。
Fracking is an expensive process and in order for those companies to make a profit, they have to sell their oil at a high price. If the price dips low enough, they’ll have to stop drilling. This would be a major blow to states like North Dakota, Oklahoma and Texas where fracking has been likened to the dot com bubble.
水力压裂是一个昂贵的过程，为了让这些公司盈利，他们不得不以高价出售石油。如果油价下跌到足够低的水平，他们将停止猜猜石油。这对北达科他，俄克拉荷马州和达克萨斯州将造成重大打击。
