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The United Nations is predicting the world’s population will reach 10.3 billion in the 2080s. The prediction appears in a new U. N. report.
联合国一份新的报告中预测，到 2080 年代，世界人口将达到 103 亿。
The report also suggests that the population will then slightly decrease to about 10.2 billion by the end of the century.
该报告还表明，到本世纪末，人口将略有下降，降至约102亿。
John Wilmoth is head of the U. N. Population Division, which prepared the report.
约翰·威尔莫斯是联合国人口司司长，该司编写了这份报告。
He told The Associated Press (AP) that there is a high probability that the world’s population will reach its height, or peak, within the current century.
他告诉美联社（AP），世界人口很有可能在本世纪内达到其高峰或峰值。
He said the probability of that happening is about 80 percent.
他表示，发生这种情况的概率约为80%。
Wilmoth described that estimate as “a major change” compared to predictions from 10 years ago.
威尔莫思称，与10年前的预测相比，这一预测是“一个重大变化”。
At that time, the estimated probability was about 30 percent.
当时，估计的概率约为30%。
U. N.Assistant Secretary-General for Economic Development Navid Hanif recently spoke about the report at a briefing.
U. 联合国主管经济发展助理秘书长纳维德-哈尼夫最近在一次简报会上谈到了这份报告。
He said the expectation that the world’s population in 2100 will be lower than previously thought has “important policy implications for the sustainability of our planet.”
他说，世界人口在2100年将低于此前预期的这一预测，对地球的可持续性具有“重要的政策影响”。
The world’s population has continued to grow during the past 75 years, from an estimated 2.6 billion in 1950 to 8 billion in November 2022.
在过去的75年里，世界人口持续增长，从1950年的估计26亿增长到2022年11月的80亿。
Since then, it has increased about 2.5 percent to 8.2 billion.
自那时起，世界人口增长了约2.5%，达到82亿。
The report notes the population has already peaked in 63 countries and territories. These include China, Germany, Japan and Russia.
该报告指出，全球已有63个国家和地区的人口达到峰值。其中包括中国、德国、日本和俄罗斯。
Within this grouping, the total population is estimated to drop 14 percent over the next 30 years.
在这个分组中，预计总人口在未来30年内将下降14%。
In another 48 countries and territories, the population is predicted to peak between 2025 and 2054.
在另外48个国家和地区，人口预计将在2025年至2054年之间达到峰值。
Those countries include Brazil, Iran, Turkey and Vietnam.
这些国家包括巴西、伊朗、土耳其和越南。
For the remaining 126 countries and territories, the population is expected to increase through 2054.
对于其余的126个国家和地区，预计人口将在2054年之前增加。
The countries in this grouping include the United States, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan.
这个分组中的国家包括美国、印度、印度尼西亚、尼日利亚和巴基斯坦。
The report said these areas would see their populations peak in the second half of the century or later.
该报告称，这些地区的人口将在本世纪下半叶或更晚达到峰值。
For nine of these nations, the U. N. Estimates the populations will double between 2024 and 2054.
对于其中九个国家，联合国预计人口将在2024年至2054年间翻倍。
Wilmoth said these differences are notable.
威尔莫斯表示这些差异是很显著的。
But he said, “it’s important to understand that all populations are following a similar path. ”
但是他谈到，“重要的是要明白，所有人口都遵循着类似的路径。”
The U. N. Report suggests the earlier population peak is predicted for several reasons.
联合国报告指出，出于一些原因，预计人口高峰会提前到来。
These include lower fertility levels in some of the world’s largest countries, especially China.
其中包括世界上一些最大的国家，特别是中国，生育率较低。
Estimates for China suggest the country’s population will drop sharply, from 1.4 billion in 2024 to 633 million in 2100.
据估计，中国的人口将急剧下降，从2024年的14亿下降到2100年的6.33亿。
The report noted that worldwide, women are having an average of one less child than they did in 1990.
该报告指出，在全球范围内，女性平均生育的孩子数量比1990年减少了一个。
In addition, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1 in over half of all countries and territories.
此外，一半以上的国家和地区每名妇女的平均活产数低于 2.1。
This is a level experts have identified as being necessary for a country’s population to keep its size without migration.
这是专家确定的一个国家人口在没有移民的情况下保持其规模所需的水平。
Wilmoth said the report shows that nearly 20 percent of the world has “ultra-low” fertility, with women having fewer than 1.5 live births.
威尔莫斯称，报告显示，世界上有近 20% 的地区属于 “超低 ”生育率地区，妇女的活产次数少于 1.5 次。
In China, the current number is about one birth per woman.
在中国，目前的生育率约为每个妇女生育一个孩子。
I’m Bryan Lynn.
我是布莱恩·林恩。
