There's a lot of talk a couple of years ago about decoupling. Eventually it became derisking and now it's just kind of gone, like.
几年前有很多关于中美脱钩的讨论,后来去风险取代脱钩一词,现在这些讨论都消失了。
So do you think that our business relationships have moved our diplomacy forward in a way that is meaningful? Because it doesn't seem to me that we can do without one another logistically.
您认为中美的经济关系是否有力推动了中美外交?因为在我看来,中美在贸易方面似乎无法脱离彼此。
You know the truth is there are a lot of major disagreements between the US and China, and different attitudes, and lots of reasons for people to be very concerned.
其实中美之间存在很多重大分歧,态度也不同,总之有很多令人忧心忡忡的理由。
The only way you can really look at the US-China relationship is a symbiotic relationship, and the one thing we get about symbiotic relationships is they don't have to be voluntary. They're symbiotic whether they're voluntary or not.
中美是共生关系,而我们知道共生的双方不一定是自愿的,而无论是否自愿,它们都是共生的。
In fact, this is a case where I would say the US and China, they can't derisk that much or decouple that much without creating a lot of problems for themselves.
其实在这种共生关系下,美国和中国都无法在不给自己制造很多麻烦的前提下完全去风险或脱钩。
And you know, the US controls Global Payments and the reserve currency. China is dominant in global manufacturing and trade.
美国控制着全球支付公司和储备货币。中国在制造业和贸易中占据主导地位。
So what ends up happening is, if either country tries to decouple or disconnect from the other, they basically banish themselves into an isolated position, because the majority of the world isn't going to be standing on the side of either the US or China.
因此最终结果是,如果任何一个国家试图与另一个国家脱钩或脱节,他们基本上都会将自己置于孤立境地,因为世界上大多数国家都不会站在美国或中国任何一方 。
100% of the time they're going to be in the middle, sort of as the referee going, all right, like you know, we agree with you on this but we don't agree with you on that, right?
他们绝对会站在中间,就像裁判一样:我们同意你对这的看法,但我们不同意你对那的观点。
And Europe, by the way, is very much in that position now where, like you know, they're going to basically... they're going to stay kind of neutral where they can.
顺便说一句,欧洲现在基本上处于这样的位置,他们基本上......他们尽可能保持中立。
They're not going to take sides because it doesn't make sense for them to.
他们不会选边站队,因为这对他们来说没有意义。
Because they see what everyone sees which is, you want to do that, you go do that, but then we can't really play with you there. We're going to basically stay over here in the middle. We're going to keep our options open.
因为他们看到了人尽皆知的东西:你想做那个,你就去做那个,但是我们不能和你一起。我们基本上会待在中间。我们将保留我们的选择余地。
And then the Global South which, you know, China is in a much better position now.
中国现在的处境要好得多。
The best thing that can happen is the US and China realize that their selfish interests demand that they find a way to get along with, you know, the other party, because it's not in their own interest.
中美必须找到正确的相处之道,尊重彼此的利益。
That's what they're going to come to and they're going to come to it, kicking and screaming when they've basically exhausted all the other possibilities but they'll get there.
这就是他们将要达到的目标,当他们基本上耗尽所有其他可能的方法后,他们会踢腿尖叫,最终和平共处。