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第43期 AI发展带来小型模块化反应堆新风口

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Nuclear energy seems to be back in favor this week. At the COP29 climate change conference, discussions are underway about how nuclear can help the world reduce carbon emissions.

本周,核能似乎又重新受到青睐。在COP29气候变化会议上,人们正在讨论核能如何帮助世界减少碳排放。

Also, the Biden administration announced a goal to triple nuclear energy production in the U.S. by 2050.

此外,拜登政府宣布了到2050年将美国核能产量提高两倍的目标。

The Inflation Reduction Act is helping with that with a ton of subsidies. And those subsidies are part of the reason that this year, Amazon, Microsoft and Google each signed massive deals to build nuclear projects.

《通胀削减法案》(IRA)通过大量补贴帮助实现这一目标。这些补贴是今年亚马逊、微软和谷歌各自签署巨额核电项目建设协议的部分原因。

The companies have a voracious appetite for electricity as artificial intelligence data centers chew up more and more energy.

随着人工智能数据中心消耗越来越多的能源,这些公司对电力的需求巨大。

The U.S. lost its appetite for building new nuclear power plants several decades ago for a few reasons. First, it's incredibly expensive to build.

几十年前,美国失去了建造新核电站的兴趣,原因有几个。首先,建造成本极高。

Also, meltdowns and environmental risks loom large in the public imagination. But a new form of nuclear power generation called small modular reactors, aims to change that.

此外,熔毁和环境风险在公众的想象中占据重要地位。但一种名为小型模块化反应堆的新型核能发电方式旨在改变这一现状。

This is THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY. I'm Darian Woods. And I'm Wailin Wong.

这里是THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY。我是Darian Woods。我是Wailin Wong。

Today on the show, could nuclear energy work differently this time? We probe the CEO of the company working with Google on its small modular reactor project, and we ask how it will deal with concerns about cost, safety and waste.

今天节目中,核能这次会不会有所不同?我们采访了与谷歌合作开展小型模块化反应堆项目的公司CEO,并询问该公司将如何处理成本、安全和浪费问题。

Google wants to power all its data centers without fossil fuels. But it's not just satisfied using solar, wind and batteries.

谷歌希望在不使用化石燃料的情况下为其所有数据中心供电。但它并不满足于使用太阳能、风能和电池。

With IRA subsidies and the prospect for always-on energy, nuclear power is a tempting possibility.

有了IRA补贴和永不间断的能源前景,核能是一个诱人的可能性。

In October, Google announced it would buy a ton of nuclear energy from a company called Kairos Power starting in 2030.

去年10月,谷歌宣布将从2030年开始从一家名为Kairos Power的公司购买大量核能。

If this plan succeeds, it would be the equivalent of enough power for more than 400,000 homes.

如果该计划成功,将相当于为40多万户家庭提供足够的电力。

Google's deal is for energy from what's called small modular reactors. They're small, as in potentially as little as a three-story building, modular, as in there'd be a lot of them made the same way.

谷歌的交易是来自所谓的小型模块化反应堆的能源。它们很小,可能只有三层楼那么大,模块化,可以以同样的方式制造很多。

Now, to be clear, there are no modern small modular reactors producing energy commercially in the U.S. right now.

现在,需要明确的是,目前美国还没有现代化的小型模块化反应堆用于商业发电。

But they are one proposed answer to a big issue with traditional nuclear power, which is that it's really expensive. Mike Laufer is the CEO of Kairos Power, the company that Google is working with.

但它们是解决传统核电过高成本的提议之一。Mike Laufer是谷歌正在合作的公司Kairos Power的首席执行官。

Nuclear plants today, in the conventional way, is really expensive, and it's not obviously going to be economically better than alternative sources.

如今,以传统方式建造的核电站成本非常高,而且显然不会比其他替代能源更具经济效益。

Throughout the 1950s and '60s, nuclear engineers initially tried to drive down costs by harnessing economies of scale.

在整个20世纪50年代和60年代,核工程师最初试图通过利用规模经济来降低成本。

So instead of building a few medium-sized reactors, you could build one really enormous one. And that did work in bringing down electricity costs in many cases.

因此,与其建造几个中型反应堆,不如建造一个非常巨大的反应堆。这在许多情况下确实有助于降低电力成本。

Nowadays, running an existing nuclear facility is cost-competitive with solar and wind and natural gas.

如今,运行现有的核设施与太阳能、风能和天然气相比具有成本竞争力。

But the costs of building, starting, and eventually decommissioning a nuclear power plant are enormous. It's far more expensive than methods like solar with battery storage.

但建造、启动和最终正式停止使用核电站的成本是巨大的。它比太阳能和电池存储等方法要昂贵得多。

Nuclear power plants are also susceptible to cost overruns. Among megaprojects, nuclear is among the worst offenders of cost blowouts. The average nuclear plant ends up at more than double the planned expense.

核电站也容易出现成本超支。在大型项目中,核电站是成本超支最严重的罪魁祸首之一。平均而言,核电站的成本是计划成本的两倍多。

There are two major reasons for these cost overruns. First, each plant is unique - different locations, different local safety considerations, different sizes.

成本超支的主要原因有两个。首先,每个核电站都是独一无二的——不同的位置、不同的当地安全考虑、不同的规模。

That makes it easier to mess something up when the new design doesn't account for all eventualities.

当新设计没有考虑到所有可能发生的情况时,就更容易搞砸事情。

When you have really long, capital-intensive projects or megaprojects, there's a lot of process that gets added in there,

当你有非常长的、资本密集型的项目或大型项目时,会有很多流程被加入其中,

and there's the sense that you don't get a lot of opportunities to build the big thing, and so people tend to put more into it because you kind of want to get as much out of that opportunity as you can.

而且你会觉得你没有很多机会去建造大型项目,所以人们倾向于投入更多,因为你想从这个机会中获得尽可能多的收益。

And that's tremendously expensive. The second reason is that because it takes so long to build a plant, experience is hard to find.

而这非常昂贵。第二个原因是,由于建造一座核电站需要很长时间,很难找到经验。

When those cycles are 20 to 30 years, as they are in nuclear, you need to just make sure that, like, you have processes that people remember what you did, you know, 20 years ago, which is not an easy thing.

当这些周期为20到30年时,就像核能一样,你只需要确保你拥有一些流程,让人们记住你20年前所做的事情,这并非易事。

Small nuclear modular reactors aim to address both those problems. By building small and modular, they'll hopefully be simplified and identical each time, and they'll allow more people to become experts at building them.

小型核模块化反应堆旨在解决这两个问题。通过建造小型模块化反应堆,它们有望每次都简化和相同,并让更多人成为建造它们的专家。

Actually building things and getting that experience and knowing where to invest time and energy is absolutely crucial.

实际上,建造东西、获得经验并知道在哪里投入时间和精力是绝对至关重要的。

And what's very elusive in nuclear technology is being able to follow that learning curve.

核技术中最难以捉摸的是能够遵循学习曲线。

A learning curve, meaning basically, each time something is built, developers get experience that leads to a more efficient process.

学习曲线,基本上意味着每次建造某样东西时,开发人员都会获得经验,从而实现更高效的流程。

And therefore, that thing gets cheaper to produce. Solar and wind are good examples with costs now a tiny fraction of what they were a couple of decades ago. But this has not happened with nuclear energy historically.

因此,生产成本会降低。太阳能和风能就是很好的例子,现在的成本只是几十年前的一小部分。但历史上核能从未发生过这种情况。

So that's the concept. I think that the reality of translating that idea into reality is it shouldn't be trivialized. What's gone wrong is absolutely essential for us to avoid kind of those pitfalls.

这是理论上的。我认为将这个想法转化为现实的想法是不应该被轻视。出了什么问题对于我们避免这些陷阱是绝对必要的。

But even if Mike's company Kairos does succeed in eventually building cheaper modular nuclear reactors, nuclear power still has its critics - like, is nuclear power safe?

但即使Mike的公司Kairos最终成功建造了更便宜的模块化核反应堆,核电仍然受到批评——比如,核电安全吗?

Evacuations after nuclear meltdowns like Fukushima and Chernobyl were hugely disruptive.

福岛和切尔诺贝利等核事故后的疏散造成了巨大的破坏。

On the other hand, the worst commercial nuclear power plant accident in American history, which is Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, exposed nearby residents to less radiation than a chest X-ray.

另一方面,美国历史上最严重的商业核电站事故,即宾夕法尼亚州的三里岛,附近居民受到的辐射量比胸部X光检查还小。

All told, the number of deaths caused each year by nuclear power are incredibly small. They are comparable to that of solar and wind.

总而言之,每年由核电造成的死亡人数非常少。它们与太阳能和风能相当。

On the other end of the spectrum, you've got millions of deaths caused by fossil fuels each year, mostly from air pollution.

另一方面,每年有数百万人死于化石燃料,主要是由于空气污染。

Mike says that Kairos is using one of the safer forms of fuels and coolants and that he expects the risk of meltdowns would actually be lower with small modular reactors because there's more standardization.

Mike说,Kairos使用的是更安全的燃料和冷却剂,他预计小型模块化反应堆的熔毁风险实际上会更低,因为标准化程度更高。

Plus, you know, he doesn't want a meltdown, either. We have to have a reliable plant in order to have an economically viable product.

另外,他也不希望发生熔毁。我们必须拥有可靠的工厂才能生产出经济上可行的产品。

And for us, the requirements of protecting the operators and protecting the investment actually fully, like, fully covers everything that's necessary to ensure health and safety of the public.

对我们来说,保护操作员和保护投资的要求实际上完全涵盖了确保公众健康和安全所需的一切。

On the nuclear waste question, that stays highly radioactive for hundreds of thousands of years. Kairos would send the waste to the Department of Energy.

关于核废料问题,核废料在数十万年内都具有高放射性。Kairos会将废料送往能源部。

According to the Department of Energy, it's safely storing nuclear waste at more than 70 sites across the U.S. using steel and concrete.

据能源部称,它在美国70多个地点使用钢铁和混凝土安全储存核废料。

But it's struggling to find places for long-term storage in the face of local opposition.

但面对当地的反对,它很难找到长期储存的地方。

Another criticism is that given the need to decarbonize quickly, we just don't have the time to wait for small modular reactors to get developed, to get approved by the authorities and start producing energy on a commercial basis.

另一个批评是,鉴于需要快速脱碳,我们根本没有时间等待小型模块化反应堆的开发、获得当局批准并开始商业化生产能源。

This could be a decades-long process. We brought this to Mike Laufer, whose deal with Google is that they'll start producing energy in 2030.

这可能是一个长达数十年的过程。我们把这个问题告诉了Mike Laufer,他与谷歌的协议是,他们将在2030年开始生产能源。

The 2030 deadline sounds soon to me, especially given small modular reactors aren't exactly a mainstream technology in the U.S. right now, not to mention that it needs to go through the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.

2030年的最后期限对我来说听起来很快,尤其是考虑到小型模块化反应堆目前在美国并不是主流技术,更不用说它需要经过核管理委员会的批准。

Why are you confident that 2030 is a doable timeline? So 2030 is certainly an aggressive timeline, and Kairos and Google both share a strong sense of urgency that we need demonstrations, and we need them quickly.

你为什么有信心2030年是一个可行的时间表?2030年肯定是一个激进的时间表,Kairos和谷歌都强烈地感到我们需要示范,而且需要迅速示范。

It's not other technologies which are the enemy or the competition. It's carbon. Carbon is the enemy.

敌人或竞争对手不是其他技术。而是碳。碳就是敌人。

So basically, any strategy or technology which allows us to really decarbonize, like, those are going to be highly valued. Those are going to be good things, in my view, for the system overall.

基本上,任何能让我们真正脱碳的策略或技术都将受到高度重视。在我看来,这对整个系统来说都是好事。

Now, the small modular reactor experiment is bolstered by subsidies, the Inflation Reduction Act in particular, and the fate of those subsidies remains to be seen under President-elect Trump and the new Congress.

现在,小型模块化反应堆实验得到了补贴的支持,特别是《通胀削减法案》,这些补贴的命运仍有待候任总统特朗普和新国会的观察。

For his part, Trump pointed to small modular reactors as a potential answer to long running cost concerns surrounding the energy source. So we might see more companies trying this nuclear option.

特朗普指出,小型模块化反应堆可能是解决围绕能源的长期运行成本问题的一个潜在答案。我们可能会看到更多公司尝试这种核选项。

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massive ['mæsiv]

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adj. 巨大的,大规模的,大量的,大范围的

 
opposition [.ɔpə'ziʃən]

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n. 反对,敌对,在野党

 
potentially [pə'tenʃəli]

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adv. 潜在地

 
intelligence [in'telidʒəns]

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n. 理解力,智力
n. 情报,情报工作,情报

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unique [ju:'ni:k]

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adj. 独一无二的,独特的,稀罕的

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avoid [ə'vɔid]

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storage ['stɔridʒ]

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loom [lu:m]

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