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This is THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY. I'm Darian Woods. And I'm Adrian Ma.
这里是THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY。我是Darian Woods。我是Adrian Ma。
Pop quiz, Darian. According to a recent survey by Pew Research, 61% of voters say what issue is very important to them. Can you guess what I'm thinking?
来个突击测验，Darian。根据皮尤研究中心最近的一项调查，61%的选民表示什么问题对他们来说非常重要。你能猜出我在想什么吗？
Well, I know number one is the economy, but we're here today to talk about immigration. So is that what it is?
我知道排名第一的是经济，但我们今天在这里讨论的是移民问题。那么，这就是问题所在吗？
Yes. I guess pop quizzes are hard to do when you work on the same show together.
是的。我想，当你们一起制作同一个节目时，突击测验很难做。
Today's topic is immigration. One person who's really noticed how much of an issue this is in the news is Zeke Hernandez.
今天的话题是移民。一个真正注意到这个问题在新闻中有多大影响的人是Zeke Hernandez。
He's a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton Business School. And he says amid all of the coverage and the political speeches, he's really noticed two narratives about immigrants taking hold.
他是宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院的教授。他说，在所有的报道和政治演讲中，他注意到了两种关于移民的叙述正在流行。
Immigrants are villains who are here to steal your job and undermine your safety and destroy American culture and our heritage.
移民是恶棍，他们来这里是为了抢走你的工作，破坏你的安全，摧毁美国文化和我们的传统。
The other narrative is immigrants are the poor, huddled masses who need our compassion, and we must help them even if it costs us. It's either kind of fear or pity.
另一种说法是，移民是贫穷的、拥挤的群众，他们需要我们的同情，我们必须帮助他们，即使要付出代价。这要么是一种恐惧，要么是一种怜悯。
I'm definitely one of the villain immigrants. I was not going to say anything, but since you said it.
我绝对是恶棍移民之一。我本来不想说什么，但既然你说了。
It's out there in the open now. But, you know, Zeke says this dichotomy between fear and pity, it distracts us from the larger truth about immigrants. Today on the show, we break out of that binary.
现在它已经公开了。但是，Zeke说，恐惧和怜悯之间的这种二分法分散了我们对移民更大真相的注意力。今天在节目中，我们打破了这种二元性。
Yeah. We hear about the less-talked-about ways all immigrants - documented and undocumented - shape our economy.
我们听到了所有移民（有证和无证）塑造我们经济的较少被谈论的方式。
Zeke Hernandez has moved around a lot during his lifetime. He was born in Uruguay, and his family moved from there to various parts of Central America and eventually to Argentina.
Zeke Hernandez一生中搬了很多次家。他出生在乌拉圭，他的家人从那里搬到了中美洲各地，最终搬到了阿根廷。
And there he says he noticed just how different economically countries could be.
他说他注意到了不同国家在经济上的巨大差异。
I was in the poorest slums of the city of Buenos Aires. And so, you know, when you see old men crying because they can't find work or women that are, you know, totally anxious because they can't feed their kids, that really moves you.
我当时在布宜诺斯艾利斯最贫穷的贫民窟。当你看到老人因为找不到工作而哭泣，或者妇女因为无法养活孩子而焦虑不安时，你会深受触动。
When Zeke came to the U.S. for college, he became fascinated with the question of why some countries prosper economically and others falter again and again. The answer seemed to come down to people.
当Zeke来到美国上大学时，他开始着迷于为什么有些国家经济繁荣，而另一些国家却一再衰退。答案似乎归结于人。
I realized that if you want to explain the movement of investment, ideas, innovation, customers and just the evolution of economies and markets, you can't separate that from the movement of people.
我意识到，如果你想解释投资、创意、创新、客户的流动，以及经济和市场的演变，你就不能将其与人的流动分开。
And since then, Zeke has been researching how immigrants shape economies around the world.
从那时起，Zeke一直在研究移民如何塑造世界各地的经济。
He recently wrote a book laying out what he's learned called "The Truth About Immigration: Why Successful Societies Welcome Newcomers."
他最近写了一本书，阐述了他所学到的东西，名为The Truth About Immigration: Why Successful Societies Welcome Newcomers。
So the argument I'm making is based on 20 years of research is that immigrants don't need your fear, they don't need your pity, they are good for you, good for you and your children. And that's both economically and socially.
我基于20年的研究得出的结论是，移民不需要你的恐惧，他们不需要你的怜悯，他们对你有好处，对你和你的孩子都有好处。这既是经济上的，也是社会上的。
Zeke says the reasons for this can be broken down into five things - five things any group of people contributes to economic growth.
Zeke说，造成这种情况的原因可以分为五件事——任何群体都会为经济增长做出贡献的五件事。
And 'cause immigrants are people, they also contribute these things. They are - talent, consumption, taxes, investment and innovation.
因为移民是人，他们也贡献了这些东西。这五件事是人才、消费、税收、投资和创新。
Let's unpack those. So we'll start with talent. Immigrants bring skills and the ability to work.
让我们来分析一下。我们先从人才开始。移民带来了技能和工作能力。
They often fill jobs where there aren't enough native-born workers willing or able to do them, which could be anything from picking fruit to practicing medicine.
他们经常填补没有足够的本土工人愿意做或能够做的工作，这些工作可能是采摘水果、行医。
But Zeke says it would be a mistake to think that an immigrant's labor is the only thing they contribute to an economy.
但Zeke说，认为移民的劳动是他们对经济的唯一贡献是错误的。
Yeah. I mean, after they work, they have paychecks to spend, right? So the second thing they bring is consumption. In economic terms, when immigrants enter an economy, they increase aggregate demand for goods and services.
他们工作后，还有薪水可以花，所以他们带来的第二件事是消费。从经济角度来看，当移民进入一个经济体时，他们会增加对商品和服务的总需求。
But that's really just the beginning of it. The more interesting part is what happens next.
但这其实只是开始。更有趣的是接下来会发生什么。
One is what I call a novelty effect, which is immigrants just because they have different tastes and preferences - right? -
一个是我所说的新奇效应，移民只是因为他们有不同的品味和偏好——
they grew up liking, I don't know, different foods or different kinds of music, or they use technology a little bit differently or something like that.
他们从小就喜欢不同的食物或不同类型的音乐，或者他们使用技术的方式有点不同，诸如此类。
They are introducing new categories of products and services or brands that they liked where they came from.
他们正在推出他们在家乡喜欢的新类别的产品和服务或品牌。
Yeah. So, for example, in D.C., where I live, there's a large Ethiopian community. And you're more likely to see in this area a demand for Ethiopian food in restaurants.
是的。例如，在我居住的华盛顿特区，有一个庞大的埃塞俄比亚社区。你更有可能在这个地区看到餐馆对埃塞俄比亚食物的需求。
Or in a place with lots of Korean immigrants, retailers may be more likely to import Korean beauty products. So this is the novelty effect of immigrant consumer demand.
或者在韩国移民很多的地方，零售商可能更有可能进口韩国美容产品。这就是移民消费需求的新奇效应。
Right. Like, I come from New Zealand, and there is a fruit I cannot find in New York. It's called a feijoa, and I order them mail order from California.
对。比如，我来自新西兰，有一种水果我在纽约找不到。它叫费约果，我从加利福尼亚邮购。
What does it taste like? It's a really tangy, sweet ball of perfume and delight. It's hard to explain. Please send them to me. I'm not sure they'll still be good by then.
它的味道怎么样？它呈球状，香气非常浓郁甜美，令人感到愉悦。很难描述。请把它们寄给我。我不确定到那时它们是否还很好。
Now, the third thing immigrants contribute is taxes. They pay sales taxes, payroll taxes that fund Social Security, and that's even true for many undocumented immigrants.
移民贡献的第三件事是税收。他们缴纳销售税、工资税，这些税款为社会保障提供资金，甚至许多无证移民也是如此。
Now, in the short run, there is a cost to integrating newer immigrants, which is disproportionately borne by local governments. You know, the cost of public education and social services like food assistance.
从短期来看，融入新移民是有成本的，而这些成本大部分由地方政府承担，比如公共教育和食品援助等社会服务的成本。
But in the long term, Zeke says that these costs are outweighed by the taxes immigrants pay.
但从长远来看，Zeke说，移民缴纳的税款可以抵消这些成本。
Zeke says that the average immigrant makes a net positive contribution of just over a quarter million dollars.
Zeke说，平均每个移民的净贡献略高于25万美元。
The fourth thing that immigrants contribute to the economy, which Zeke says is often overlooked, is investment. And this can happen a couple of ways. For one thing, you can have foreign companies investing in the U.S.
移民对经济的第四项贡献是投资，Zeke说这经常被忽视。这可以通过几种方式实现。首先，你可以让外国公司在美国投资。
The research I've done in the U.S., for example, shows that when immigrants increase by 1% as a share of a state's population, that state becomes 50% more likely to get investment from the immigrants' home country than it otherwise would have been.
例如，我在美国所做的研究表明，当移民占一个州人口的比例增加1%时，该州从移民祖国获得投资的可能性就会比以前高出50%。
If you want to see, like, a contemporary story on this, look no further than Pollo Campero, which is one of the fastest-growing restaurant chains in the United States. And of all places, it's from Guatemala.
如果你想看一个关于这方面的当代故事，那就看看咔贝乐（Pollo Campero）吧，它是美国发展最快的连锁餐厅之一。而它来自危地马拉。
So you have this Guatemalan company over the past couple of decades opening U.S. locations.
这家危地马拉公司在过去几十年里在美国开设了分店。
At this point, they have over a hundred of them. And they open them in places where there tend to be a lot of immigrants from Central America.
目前，他们有一百多家分店。他们把这些分店开在中美洲移民较多的地方。
That's what I call the immigration investment jobs triangle. That is, immigrants settle. Investment follows. Those investments create jobs and not jobs just for immigrants.
这就是我所说的移民投资就业三角。也就是说，移民定居。投资随之而来。这些投资创造了就业机会，而不仅仅是为移民创造就业机会。
And then another way investment can happen is an immigrant to the U.S. starts a business.
然后，投资发生的另一种方式是美国移民创办企业。
Immigrants are also 80% more likely than native-born people to start a business and that means that they're putting their own capital, their own investment in a new business.
移民创办企业的可能性也比本土人高出80%，这意味着他们将自己的资本、自己的投资投入到新企业中。
OK? Now, that 80% is at the average for every business, from a mom-and-pop restaurant to Google or Zoom or Duolingo, which are immigrant-founded firms.
80%是每家企业的平均水平，从夫妻店到谷歌、Zoom或多邻国，这些都是移民创办的公司。
The fifth and final thing immigrants contribute to economic growth, according to Zeke, is innovation. They bring ideas. Just check out some of these stats.
Zeke认为，移民对经济增长的第五项也是最后一项贡献是创新。他们带来了想法。看看这些统计数据就知道了。
One study estimates that in recent decades, immigrant inventors were responsible for 1 in 3 U.S. patents. In addition, nearly half of Fortune 500 firms were founded by an immigrant or a child of immigrants.
一项研究估计，近几十年来，移民发明家占美国专利总数的三分之一。此外，近一半的财富500强企业是由移民或移民子女创立的。
So that rounds out the five things immigrants contribute to the economy, which, again, any group of people has these five qualities.
以上就是移民对经济的五项贡献，同样，任何群体都具备这五种特质。
It's just that immigrants bring a different set of skills and different tastes and ideas, which help grow the economy in a way that it couldn't otherwise.
只是移民带来了不同的技能、品味和想法，这有助于经济增长，而这是其他方式无法做到的。
Zeke says this is just as true for people who immigrate to the U.S. illegally as those who come here legally.
Zeke说，对于非法移民到美国的人和合法移民来说，情况都是一样的。
I think the difference is that illegal or undocumented immigrants often have a ceiling on how much of those five things they can contribute because of their legal status. I'll tell you a short story on this.
我认为不同之处在于，非法或无证移民由于其合法身份，往往对这五件事的贡献有一个上限。我给你讲个小故事。
My barber is really good, and we've become good friends over time. He confessed to me after years of getting to know each other that he's an undocumented immigrant - he's not in the country legally.
我的理发师真的很厉害，随着时间的推移我们成了好朋友。经过多年的了解，他向我坦白，他是一名无证移民——他不是合法居住在美国的。
And he also told me that his lifelong dream has been to start his own barbershop, and he has $200,000 saved in cash ready to start this business, which almost knocked me off my chair. I was like, you have how much money?
他还告诉我，他一生的梦想就是开一家自己的理发店，他已经攒了20万美元现金，准备开始这项业务，这几乎让我大吃一惊。我当时想，你有多少钱？
And I was like, wow, OK. And I said, well, why don't you do this? And he said, I can't because of my legal status.
我说，哇，好吧。我说，那你为什么不这样做呢？他说，我不能这样做，因为我的合法身份。
So the real tragedy of illegal immigration, when it comes to the economy, is that we don't get as many of the five things that immigrants bring as we could if they were here legally.
因此，就经济而言，非法移民的真正悲剧在于，我们无法获得移民带来的五种东西，而他们如果合法移民，我们本可以得到这么多东西。
Now, Zeke wants to be clear. He's not advocating for illegal immigration, but he is in favor of more legal pathways.
Zeke想澄清一下。他并不提倡非法移民，但他支持更多的合法途径。
To put it another way, there hasn't been a major update to U.S. immigration policy in over three decades. And 'cause of that, Zeke argues that the U.S. economy is missing out.
换句话说，美国移民政策在过去三十多年里没有进行过重大更新。正因为如此，Zeke认为美国经济正在错失良机。
