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So, Emily, I want to start with a pretty basic question -- what can a poll tell you?
艾米丽，我想从一个非常基本的问题开始--民意调查能告诉你什么？
A poll can give you an idea of what Americans or whatever population we've looked at thinks.
民意调查可以让你了解美国人或我们所调查的任何人群的想法。
So if we are looking at a poll of folks in Nevada or folks in North Carolina, what that population thinks about something, and there's no way to do that better than a poll, because we can systematically reach a random sample of the population that we're looking at and ask them questions that represent the larger population.
如果我们在内华达州或北卡罗来纳州的民众中进行民意调查，询问他们对某事的看法，没有哪种方式比民意调查更好的了，因为我们可以系统地接触到正在研究的人口中的随机样本，并向他们提出能够代表更大人口的问题。
Some people often say like, "Well, I didn't get called for this poll, so how can it be representative?"
有些人常说，“没人给我打电话参加这次民调，它怎么能有代表性呢？”
Well, if we were asking everyone every time, that would take us like years and be very expensive.
如果我们每次都打电话去问每个人，那将花费几年时间，而且耗资巨大。
So we make sure that we get a randomized group of folks that we can reach out to that represent others.
因此，我们要确保的是接触到一个随机的群体，这些人可以代表其他人。
So even if you haven't been reached out to a poll, someone who probably thinks and feels similarly to you has been.
所以，即便你没有接到民调电话，但与你想法和感受相似的人已经参加了民调了。
So, then, on the flip side, what does a poll not tell you?
所以，另一方面，我们无法通过民调知道的是什么呢？
A poll can't tell you what's going to happen in the future. They are snapshots in time.
民调不能告诉你未来会发生什么。它们是时间的快照。
So we're looking to -- when we -- when we word those questions, we say, "If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?"
因此，我们希望--我们在提出这些问题时，往往会说，“如果今天举行选举，你会投票给谁？”
So people are answering for that time period.
人们回答的是关于当前这段时间的问题。
We also can't really dig down too deep on people's thoughts and feelings, because we try to keep questions pretty close-ended so that we can translate those into percentages.
我们也不能太深入地挖掘人们的想法和感受，因为我们想要保持问题的封闭性，这样才可以把回答转化为百分比。
We do ask open-ended questions sometimes that give people the ability to expound further, but polls are good at measuring closed-ended opinions -- that's easier for respondents to respond to and give us a snapshot of what they think at that time.
有时候我们也会问开放性问题，让人们可以进一步阐述，但民意调查擅长衡量封闭式观点--这更容易让受访者做出回应，并让我们了解他们当时的想法。
That snapshot idea feels really important because I think, when you see a poll of whether people like one candidate more than another, it feels immediately like, "Oh, that's going to tell me what's going to happen in November and what the results of the election are going to be."
这一瞬间的想法和感觉非常重要，因为我认为，当你看到与一个候选人相比，人们更喜欢另一个候选人的民意调查时，你会立即感觉到，“哦，这会告诉我11月会发生什么，选举结果会是什么。”
But it's -- it's not quite -- like, there's a real distinction there.
但这--这并不完全--这里面是有区别的。
This isn't supposed to tell you who's going to win in November.
你不应该通过民调去预知谁会在11月获胜。
This is telling you how people feel right now.
民调只能告诉你人们现在的感受。
Yes, it's October. They might change their opinions.
是的，现在是十月。他们的观点可能会改变。
I know that can be hard for people to believe, but there are undecided voters out there.
我知道人们很难相信这一点，但目前仍有犹豫不决的选民。
Things happen in their lives and things happen in the world that can change people's opinions.
生活中发生的事情和世界上发生的事情都会改变人们的看法。
So when we ask questions about the economy, if they lose their job between now and then -- God forbid -- they could say that their personal finances are not as good as they were before, and vice versa -- if they get employment or they get a raise or get a promotion, they can say that they are more financially stable than they did previously, and that can impact their opinions in other ways.
所以，在我们问到经济相关的问题时，如果他们从现在到那时失去了工作--上帝保佑--他们可能会说自己的个人财务状况不如以前了，反之亦然--如果他们找到了工作，或者加薪升职了，他们可能说自己的财务状况比以前更稳定了，这些都可能会在其他方面影响他们的观点。
So, let me ask this -- I think a lot of people, when they turn on TV, when they open the newspaper, they'll see some headline about a poll, like, "Newest Poll Says that Kamala Harris is Up," or "Kamala Harris is Down," or whatever.
所以，我来问一下--我想很多人，当他们打开电视，打开报纸，会看到一些关于民调的标题，比如，“最新民调显示卡玛拉·哈里斯支持率上升了，”或者“卡马拉·哈里斯支持率下降了”之类的。
But take me back to -- like, where does that poll come from?
但让我们回到--比如，民意调查是从哪里来的这个问题上？
Like, what is the -- the origin of that poll and what is the path that that poll had to take to end up with this headline that makes some broad pronouncement about how Americans' view on something has shifted?
比如，这项民意调查的起源是什么，这个民意调查是怎么得出这个标题的，竟然能够广泛地宣布美国人对某事的看法发生了怎样的变化？
