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In the 1992, movie Glengarry Glen Ross, the iconic always be closing scene has Alec Baldwin's character bragging to another salesman about driving an $80,000 BMW.
在1992年的电影《拜金一族》中，标志性的结尾场景是亚历克·鲍德温饰演的角色向另一位推销员吹嘘自己开着一辆价值80000美元的宝马。
Adjusted for $1 1992 according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, that would be the equivalent of just under $182,000 today. that is a very expensive automobile to be sure.
根据美国劳工统计局的数据，按1992年的1美元调整后，这相当于今天的182000美元。这无疑是一辆非常昂贵的汽车。
But these days if you drive around a major city, you're likely to see dozens of cars that cost that much or more and they probably wouldn't even stand out that much.
但如今，如果你在大城市里开车，你可能会看到几十辆价格如此之高甚至更高的汽车，而且它们可能甚至不会那么引人注目。
According to company sales data and historic records, Lamborghini has sold more cars in the last 10 years alone than it did in all the rest of the company's history combined.
根据公司的销售数据和历史记录，兰博基尼仅在过去10年里的销售量就比该公司历史上所有其他时期的总和还要多。
Because there is simply a bigger market for $300,000 cars than ever before.
因为30万美元汽车的市场比以往任何时候都要大。
The same general trend is true for other extreme luxury brands like Bentley, Ferrari, Patek Philippe, luxury groceries at Aaron.
同样的总体趋势也适用于其他超豪华品牌，如宾利、法拉利、百达翡丽、Aaron的豪华杂货店。
Gym memberships that cost more than rent. Hotels that make Hilton look like a Holiday Inn and to top it off. Private jets are all now way more popular than they ever have been.
健身房会员费比房租还贵。这些酒店让希尔顿看起来像假日酒店，较之更胜一筹。私人飞机现在比以往任何时候都更受欢迎。
One thing that often gets lost in discussions of wealth inequality is that yes billionaires are getting richer. But there are also far more rich people around than ever before.
在讨论财富不平等时，经常被忽略的一件事是，亿万富翁确实越来越富有。但富人的数量也比以往任何时候都多。
And it's because the value of an hour of human labor has stayed more or less stagnant, while the value of an asset and the availability of credit has skyrocketed.
这是因为一小时的人力劳动价值基本保持不变，而资产价值和信贷可用性却飙升。
People who held on to an even modest portfolio over the last 4 years now have enormous fortunes. Certain individuals got incredibly lucky with good investments.
过去4年里，那些持有哪怕是适度投资组合的人现在都拥有了巨额财富。某些人非常幸运，获得了良好的投资。
And other people accessed easy credit to get absolutely jacked to the tits on leverage and ride the longest asset Bull Run in history. Very few people have made modern fortunes through work alone.
而其他人则获得了轻松的信贷，完全依靠杠杆来赚钱，并经历了历史上最长的资产牛市。很少有人仅靠工作就获得了现代财富。
And you might have even noticed how investing went from something that you should do to secure your retirement to something you need to do to have any quality of life at all.
你可能甚至已经注意到，投资从为确保退休而应该做的事情变成了为获得任何质量的生活而需要做的事情。
If robots really do take over, then it will just continue to push the value of an hour of human work down because it could be done by a machine instead.
如果机器人真的接管了，那么它将继续压低一小时人类工作的价值，因为它可以由机器代替。
And it will rally the value of assets because business owners and investors will benefit from the free labor substitute.
它将提高资产价值，因为企业主和投资者将受益于免费的劳动力替代品。
This is where people point to policy fixes like a universal basic income. If you haven't heard about this idea by now, that's impressive.
这就是人们指出政策修正的地方，比如全民基本收入。如果你现在还没有听说过这个概念，那真是令人惊讶。
But it's basically a government payment made to everybody regardless of personal financial conditions that should be enough to cover basic living expenses.
但它基本上是政府向每个人支付的款项，无论个人财务状况如何，这笔钱应该足以支付基本生活费用。
It's been proposed as a solution to keep the whole system going if people can't earn an income for themselves because their labor has been outsourced or automated.
如果人们因为劳动力被外包或自动化而无法自己赚取收入，那么有人提议将其作为一种解决方案，以保持整个系统的运转。
But that is still not a desirable outcome for anybody. If comprehensive automation of human labor gets as far as needing this, then you will fall into one of two defined classes of people.
但这仍然不是任何人所希望的结果。如果人类劳动力的全面自动化发展到这种程度，那么您将落入两类人中的一类。
You will either be getting by based on a government lifeline or you will be in the class of people that own the businesses complaining about all the taxes they need to pay to fund that lifeline.
您要么依靠政府的生命线生存，要么成为拥有企业的那类人，抱怨需要支付所有税款来资助这条生命线。
I find it a little bit easier to sympathize with one of those groups. but there are still no winners.
我发现同情其中一个群体更容易一些。但仍然没有赢家。
Just last week the result of one of the most comprehensive universal basic income experiments was published.
就在上周，一项最全面的全民基本收入实验的结果公布了。
The research gave 1,000 people living in Texas and Illinois $1,000 a month with no conditions attached.
这项研究为居住在得克萨斯州和伊利诺伊州的1000人每月提供1000美元，没有任何附加条件。
To qualify for this study, their 2019 household income had to be less than 300% of the federal poverty line or $37,470 for an individual.
要符合这项研究的资格，他们的2019年家庭收入必须低于联邦贫困线的300%或个人收入为37,470美元。
There was also an unlucky control group of 2,000 people who were only given $50 a month.
还有一个不幸的对照组，由2000人组成，他们每月只得到50美元。
This is because when your personal finances are being studied, you are more likely to be careful about your spending decisions and the researchers wanted to control for these changes.
这是因为，在研究你的个人财务状况时，你更有可能谨慎地做出支出决定，而研究人员希望控制这些变化。
The study itself was funded by an organization called OpenResearch, which is not technically affiliated with OpenAI.
这项研究由一个名为OpenResearch的组织资助，该组织在技术上与OpenAI没有关联。
But they are both managed by Sam Altman, who has been very vocal about how this technology could displace billions of jobs.
但它们都由萨姆·奥尔特曼管理，他直言不讳地表示这项技术可能会取代数十亿个工作岗位。
Now if you ever find yourself running an AI startup that burns millions of dollars a day, then one of the best ways to ensure that you keep that investor money coming is to pretend to be really scared about how your technology is going to replace workers.
现在，如果你发现自己经营着一家每天烧掉数百万美元的AI初创公司，那么确保投资者资金不断流入的最佳方法就是假装真的害怕技术将如何取代工人。
Because well, replacing workers is really exciting to investors.
因为，取代工人对投资者来说真的很令人兴奋。
So realistically, this study was probably little more than marketing stun conducted by one of the best funded organizations in the space. But that doesn't mean that the results aren't still interesting.
所以现实地说，这项研究可能只不过是由该领域资金最充足的组织之一进行的营销噱头。但这并不意味着结果不再有趣。
The key results related to employment was that the group that received the $1,000 payment ended up earning significantly less for themselves than the control group.
与就业相关的关键结果是，获得1000美元补贴的群体最终收入明显低于对照组。
After the payment was accounted for, they still earned more. But $12000 alone is not enough to live anywhere in America without other forms of support.
在支付了款项之后，他们的收入仍然更多。但如果没有其他形式的支持，仅靠12000美元是不足以在美国任何地方生活的。
All households ended up earning more. But that was largely because this experiment started right at the beginning of COVID, when employment particularly in low-wage professions was hurt by lockdowns.
所有家庭的最终收入都增加了。但这主要是因为这项实验是在新冠开始时进行的，当时就业，特别是低薪职业的就业受到封城的影响。
The reason the researchers gave as to why households receiving the subsidy ended up earning less money for themselves was
研究人员指出，接受补贴的家庭最终收入之所以减少，
because many people took it as an opportunity to cut down on how much they were working and commit more time to leisure in looking after their family.
是因为许多人借此机会减少工作量，将更多时间用于休闲，照顾家人。
This fits the optimistic idea of an AI future where we can have machines do everything for us while we just relax and collect universal basic income.
这符合对人工智能未来的乐观想法，我们可以让机器为我们做所有事情，而我们只需放松并领取全民基本收入即可。
But the finding still told a story of people who were financially struggling. Mental health improved because people were less stressed. But those improvements faded by the end of the first year.
但这一发现仍然讲述了一个经济困难的人的故事。由于人们的压力减轻，心理健康得到了改善。但这些改善在第一年年底就消失了。
Food security also increased, but again only in the first year, as even people with additional income fell victim to rising living expenses.
粮食安全也有所提高，但同样只在第一年，因为即使是有额外收入的人也成为生活费用上涨的牺牲品。
And that was when they could work to earn additional money. When compared to being plunged into poverty, it's an okay compromise. But this isn't going to happen overnight.
而那时他们还可以工作来赚更多的钱。与陷入贫困相比，这是一个可以接受的妥协。但这不会在一夜之间发生。
Outsourcing turned entire cities in America into ghost towns but it happened so slowly that big changes like this never got addressed.
外包使美国的整个城市变成了鬼城，但这种变化发生得如此缓慢，以至于这样的大变化从未得到解决。
The end game for people investing in automation is to build that automated utopian future.
投资自动化的最终目标是建立自动化的乌托邦未来。
The end game for everyone else is to make sure that they aren't excluded from it.
其他所有人的最终目标是确保他们不会被排除在外。
