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At his press conference last week, former President Donald Trump talked about his dream relationship with the U.S. central bank, the Federal Reserve.
在上周的新闻发布会上，前总统唐纳德·特朗普谈到了他与美国中央银行美联储的理想关系。
I feel the president should have at least say in there, yeah. I feel that strongly. I think that in my case, I made a lot of money. I was very successful.
我觉得总统至少应该有发言权。我强烈地有这种感觉。我认为就我而言，我赚了很多钱。我非常成功。
And I think I have a better instinct than, in many cases, people that would be on the Federal Reserve or the chairman.
而且我认为许多情况下我的直觉比美联储或主席的人更好。
Presidential candidate for the Democratic Party Kamala Harris, though, had a rather different taste.
然而，民主党总统候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯的品味却截然不同。
The Fed is an independent entity. And as president, I would never interfere in the decisions that the Fed makes.
美联储是一个独立实体。作为总统，我永远不会干涉美联储做出的决定。
All right. A fight over economics - this sounds like a case for THE INDICATOR.
好吧。一场关于经济的斗争——这听起来像是THE INDICATOR的案例。
This is THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY. I'm Darian Woods.
这里是THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY。我是Darian Woods。
And I'm gumshoe Wailin Wong. Today on the show, an age-old tension - the Federal Reserve versus the president. We explain how central banks around the world became independent and why most economists want it to stay that way.
我是侦探Wailin Wong。今天的节目是关于一个古老的紧张局势——美联储与总统。我们解释了世界各地的中央银行是如何变得独立的，以及为什么大多数经济学家希望它保持这种状态。
The Federal Reserve, the U.S. central bank, has two big goals - keeping prices stable and jobs plentiful. And its decisions are independent from politicians when it takes actions on things like changing interest rates to lower inflation, which we're laser-focused on today.
美联储，即美国中央银行，有两个大目标——保持物价稳定和就业充足。当它采取行动，比如改变利率以降低通胀时，它的决定不受政客的影响，而我们今天正重点关注这一点。
Right. We learned that the consumer price index rose 2.9% year on year in July. That's a huge improvement from mid-2022, when inflation was over 9%.
我们了解到，7月份消费者价格指数同比上涨2.9%。与2022年中期通胀率超过9%相比，这是一个巨大的进步。
University of Texas at Austin economist Carola Binder reckons that decrease was accelerated by the Fed's independence from political meddling.
德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校经济学家卡罗拉·宾德（Carola Binder）认为，美联储不受政治干预的独立性加速了这一下降。
The Fed's job was made easier by its independence. And inflation could have been even worse had the Fed not been independent.
美联储的独立性使其工作变得更容易。如果美联储不独立，通胀可能会更糟。
Raising interest rates is a challenging lever to pull. This brings down prices by slowing the economy down. It makes new mortgages more expensive. It puts people temporarily out of work. So it's not a popular line of action for any politician.
加息是一个具有挑战性的杠杆。这会通过减缓经济来降低价格。它使新的抵押贷款更加昂贵。它让人们暂时失业。所以这对任何政客来说都不是一个受欢迎的行动路线。
If their goal is to get elected in a few months or even in a few years, they're not going to worry about the long-run consequences of their policy actions. So lower interest rates - maybe they boost the economy right now but in the longer run maybe lead to inflation.
如果他们的目标是在几个月甚至几年内当选，他们就不会担心其政策行动的长期后果。因此，降低利率也许会立即提振经济，但从长远来看可能会导致通货膨胀。
The Fed has more credibility. Investors and the public generally believe it'll try to do what it takes. And that's important in getting the job done.
美联储的可信度更高。投资者和公众普遍认为，美联储会尽其所能。这对于完成工作至关重要。
And when we say the Fed is independent, we don't mean it's completely separated from democracy. While the president can't, say, lower interest rates when they feel like they're getting too high, the Fed is accountable to the public in other ways.
当我们说美联储是独立的，并不意味着它完全脱离民主。虽然总统不能在感觉利率过高时降低利率，但美联储以其他方式对公众负责。
Right. The president appoints the members of the Federal Reserve Board. The Federal Reserve's goals - low inflation and high jobs - are set by Congress, and the agency is accountable to Congress.
总统任命美联储委员会成员。美联储的目标——低通胀和高就业——由国会制定，该机构对国会负责。
Just last month, Republican Senator John Kennedy grilled Fed chair Jerome Powell.
就在上个月，共和党参议员约翰·肯尼迪质问美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔。
I got two seconds. So when are you going to lower interest rates? I'm today not going to be sending any signals about the timing of any future actions.
我还有两秒钟。那么你什么时候降息？我今天不会发出任何有关未来行动时机的信号。
As much as politicians might want to control interest rates, they can't. And that's thanks to an accord between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve in 1951.
尽管政客们可能想控制利率，但他们做不到。这要归功于1951年美国财政部和美联储达成的一项协议。
In the U.S., inflation was running high after World War II and during the Korean War. But the Fed had a problem.
在美国，二战后和朝鲜战争期间，通货膨胀率居高不下。但美联储遇到了问题。
It was effectively controlled by the Treasury Department, which was led by the president's Treasury secretary.
它实际上由财政部控制，财政部由总统的财政部长领导。
And that got in the way of the Fed doing its main job - influencing the money supply, keeping inflation down - aka monetary policy.
这妨碍了美联储履行其主要职责——影响货币供应量，抑制通货膨胀——也就是货币政策。
So what's called the Treasury-Fed Accord of 1951 is when the Fed finally was kind of granted independence to be able to conduct monetary policy the way we would think of it today.
因此，1951年财政部-美联储协议之后，美联储终于被授予独立性，能够以我们今天所认为的方式实施货币政策。
That didn't mean that presidents didn't try to influence the Fed. Like, think of Arthur Burns, Fed chair in the 1970s.
这并不意味着总统没有试图影响美联储。比如，想想20世纪70年代的美联储主席阿瑟·伯恩斯。
Most famous would be Richard Nixon when he was pressuring Arthur Burns for looser monetary policy to try to help his reelection chances.
最著名的例子是理查德·尼克松，他向阿瑟·伯恩斯施压，要求他实施更宽松的货币政策，以增加他连任的机会。
Lyndon Johnson also twisted the screws on his Fed chair at the time. And through the 1970s and '80s, a consensus started to emerge among economists.
林登·约翰逊当时也对美联储主席施加压力。在20世纪70年代和80年代，经济学家开始达成共识。
The job of central banks to bring down inflation was a lot easier without politicians getting in the way, trying to pressure the lever down.
在没有政客插手、试图压低杠杆的情况下，央行降低通胀的工作要容易得多。
And in return for more autonomy, central banks could be more transparent about their decision-making.
作为获得更多自主权的回报，央行可以更加透明地进行决策。
As economists came to recognize the benefits of transparency and of independence, it kind of became more accepted and more part of the culture at the Fed and even the culture at central banks around the world.
随着经济学家逐渐认识到透明度和独立性的好处，透明度和独立性越来越被接受，并成为美联储乃至世界各地央行文化的一部分。
The Bank of Japan, the Bank of Mexico and the Bank of England became independent in the 1990s. The European Central Bank was built as independent from day one. And the evidence suggests that independence works to control inflation.
日本银行、墨西哥银行和英格兰银行在20世纪90年代独立。欧洲央行从第一天起就独立运作。有证据表明，独立性有助于控制通胀。
Carolina Garriga is a political science professor at the University of Essex in the U.K. Carolina and her co-authors' research finds that countries with more independent central banks have lower levels of inflation.
Carolina Garriga是英国埃塞克斯大学的政治学教授。Carolina及其合著者的研究发现，中央银行更独立的国家通胀水平较低。
But like all good social scientists, she's quick to note that correlation doesn't always equal causation.
但像所有优秀的社会科学家一样，她很快指出，相关性并不总等于因果关系。
It's not causation, but it's a pretty strong correlation that holds across time from the '70s to two years ago and across different kinds of governments. A very strong correlation...
这不是因果关系，但它是一种相当强的相关性，从上世纪70年代到两年前，在不同类型的政府中都存在。非常强的相关性……
That is definitely pointing at a direction and winking. Exactly. Carolina also talks about countries that have eroded their central bank independence.
这绝对是指明了方向，并暗示了这一点。没错。Carolina还谈到了那些中央银行独立性被削弱的国家。
You can see central bankers being fired and then inflation spiking. I mean, I'm from Argentina, and I can give you many examples. Sure.
你可以看到央行行长被解雇，然后通胀飙升。我是阿根廷人，我可以给你举很多例子。当然。
And this has happened not only in Argentina - has happened in Turkey, has happened in Hungary. When an attack to central bank independence becomes public, you can see these spikes and inflation going up.
这不仅发生在阿根廷——也发生在土耳其，也发生在匈牙利。当对中央银行独立性的攻击公开时，你可以看到这些飙升和通胀上升。
Carola Binder at UT Austin says in the U.S., the consensus grew that central bank independence was a good thing, and this led to a norm.
德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校的卡罗拉·宾德表示，在美国，人们越来越一致地认为央行独立是一件好事，这导致了一种常态。
Presidents were letting the central banks do their thing until the 2016 election, when Trump started publicly and loudly criticizing the Federal Reserve.
历届总统都让央行自行其是，直到2016年大选，当时特朗普开始公开大声批评美联储。
That continued into his presidency. He appointed Fed chair Jerome Powell but started making these public swipes against him from 2018. This was a major shift in the president's relationship with the Fed.
这种情况一直持续到他担任总统期间。他任命了美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，但从2018年开始公开批评他。这是总统与美联储关系的重大转变。
There had been a norm for many years that the president wouldn't - well, I don't know which presidents had Twitter - but they wouldn't go on Twitter...Or something like that, ranting about the Federal Reserve.
多年来一直存在一种常态，即总统不会——我不知道哪些总统有推特——但他们不会在推特上……或者类似的社媒上，对美联储大发牢骚。
So that was a shift in kind of what was seen as acceptable for a president to do.
所以这是一种转变，人们认为总统这种行为可以接受。
And with Donald Trump's comments now, it seems that he's saying that if he's elected, there might be more structural change, giving the president more input. Donald Trump's vice presidential candidate, JD Vance, supported this over the weekend.
而从唐纳德·特朗普现在的言论来看，他似乎是在说，如果他当选，可能会有更多的结构性变化，让总统有更多的发言权。唐纳德·特朗普的副总统候选人JD万斯上周末对此表示支持。
If the American people don't like our interest rate policy, they should elect somebody different to change that policy. Nothing should be above democratic debate in this country when it comes to the big questions confronting the United States.
如果美国人民不喜欢我们的利率政策，他们应该选出其他人来改变这一政策。当涉及到美国面临的重大问题时，这个国家的民主辩论不应受到任何影响。
Both Carolina and Carola think that it's a bad idea. Carola says these comments are revealing.
Carolina和Carola都认为这是一个坏主意。Carola说这些评论很有启发性。
You frequently have presidents who disagree with what the Federal Reserve does. They almost always disagree on the side of, we should have looser policy.
经常有总统不同意美联储的做法。他们几乎总是反对我们应该采取更宽松的政策。
We should have lower interest rates. So it shows you, well, if we had left monetary policy in the hands of the president, we would have had more inflation.
我们应该降低利率。这表明，如果我们把货币政策交给总统，我们的通胀就会更高。
That said, Carola says the public does want accountability. Like, how did we even get such high inflation? What went wrong? How can we avoid that happening again?
话虽如此，Carola说公众确实希望问责。比如，我们怎么会有这么高的通胀？哪里出了问题？我们如何避免这种情况再次发生？
The Fed should give them that kind of accountability - should be transparent about the mistakes they made and what they've learned and what they might change.
美联储应该让他们承担这种责任——应该对他们所犯的错误、他们学到了什么以及他们可能会做出什么改变保持透明。
Carola does think there is a grain of truth there in the frustrations that might lead someone wanting a politician to strong-arm the economists.
Carola确实认为，人们的挫败感可能会导致一些人希望政客强迫经济学家采取行动，这其中确实有一定道理。
Think about what we've been through - the high inflation, the pandemic and then the global financial crisis before that.
想想我们经历过的一切——高通胀、疫情，以及之前的全球金融危机。
The Fed was scrambling to help, of course, and that meant expanding its role and taking on unconventional new action, like buying up tons of mortgage securities and bonds.
当然，美联储正在努力提供帮助，这意味着扩大其作用并采取非常规的新行动，比如购买大量抵押贷款证券和债券。
You can see why there is kind of more calls for more oversight of the Fed or calls to kind of constrain it if it's seen as maybe going beyond what its original intentions were.
你可以明白为什么人们越来越多地呼吁对美联储进行更多监督，或者呼吁在美联储可能超出其初衷的情况下对其进行某种限制。
Are we just asking too much of the Fed? Do we want the Fed to solve all of our problems?
我们对美联储的要求是不是太高了？我们想让美联储解决我们所有的问题吗？
We do. We ask too much of the Fed and not enough of what we can do ourselves. OK, John F. Kennedy. Wow, what a pep talk. I love it.
我们确实想。我们对美联储的要求太高，而我们自己能做的事情却不够。好吧，约翰·肯尼迪。哇，真是鼓舞人心的讲话。我喜欢它。
