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This is THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY. I'm Darian Woods. And I'm producer Cooper Katz McKim, here to talk one of my favorite topics - power.
这里是THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY。我是 Darian Woods。我是制片人Cooper Katz McKim，今天谈论我最喜欢的话题之一——电力。
Yes. You are a resident energy expert. We're talking about electricity here, not about political power, although there will be a little bit of that.
是的。您是常驻能源专家。我们在这里谈论的是电力，而不是政治权力，尽管会涉及一点政治权力。
You know, there is a desperate need for new electricity transmission in the U.S. to meet rising demand for power and to decarbonize the economy.
美国迫切需要新的电力输送，以满足不断增长的电力需求并实现经济脱碳。
We are generating a lot of power. There just isn't enough transmission infrastructure to get it where it needs to go, especially when it comes to renewables.
我们生产了大量电力。只是没有足够的输电基础设施将其送到需要的地方，尤其是在可再生能源方面。
To become a net zero emissions economy by 2050, as the Biden administration wants to do, the U.S. will need to roughly triple its existing transmission capacity. But right now, we're nowhere near close to meeting that goal.
要像拜登政府希望的那样，到2050年成为净零排放经济体，美国需要将其现有输电能力提高大约三倍。但目前，我们离实现这一目标还差得很远。
There are a lot of questions that need answered before transmission can get built. What will permitting look like? How will the costs be allocated? Another one - who will build it?
在建设输电设施之前，有很多问题需要回答。许可证会是什么样子？成本将如何分配？另一个问题——谁来建造它？
That last question - who? - is surprisingly divisive. And there's basically two options here.
令人惊讶的是，最后一个问题存在分歧。这里基本上有两个选择。
You've got one where the utilities who are already there getting the new projects by default, or you could allow an outside developer in who can win the bid.
一个是默认让现有的公用事业公司获得新项目，另一个是允许能够赢得竞标的外部开发商进入。
And these represent two distinct perspectives, whether we should use a monopoly or a competitive model to develop new transmission. The Spy Vs Spy of our era.
这代表了两种截然不同的观点，即我们应该使用垄断模式还是竞争模式来开发新的输电系统。我们这个时代的间谍大战。
Right. Which method you choose may affect your electricity bill. Today on the show, we look at why competition is so controversial in this one sector and why each side thinks they should be the ones to build the next generation of transmission.
对。选择哪种方法可能会影响电费。今天在节目中，我们来看看为什么竞争在这个领域如此有争议，以及为什么双方都认为他们应该建造下一代输电系统。
In 2006, Jon Wellinghoff became commissioner of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
2006年，乔恩·韦林霍夫(Jon Wellinghoff)成为联邦能源管理委员会委员。
That's the federal regulator for interstate electricity transmission. Jon noticed firsthand how inefficient the grid was across the U.S.
这是州际电力传输的联邦监管机构。乔恩亲眼目睹了美国各地电网的低效。
Regional areas where there were multiple utilities. Each utility was doing their individual planning.
有多家公用事业公司的地区，每家公用事业公司都在进行各自的规划。
And by 2009, he was in a position to take matters into his own hands. He became chairman at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission or FERC. He would captain the ship for a new massive piece of rule-making - Order 1000.
到2009年，他已经有能力亲自处理此事。他成为联邦能源管理委员会(FERC)主席。他将领导制定一项新的规则-1000号指令。
It's a pretty catchy name, Order 1000. I like that. A little sci-fi, but here's hoping it's powerful. Just rolls off the tongue.
1000号指令这个名字很吸引人。我喜欢它。有点科幻，但希望它很有影响力。朗朗上口。
Among its goals, requiring utilities to plan on a regional basis and to create competition in the buildout of federal transmission infrastructure.
其目标之一是要求公用事业公司在区域基础上进行规划，并在联邦输电基础设施的建设中创造竞争。
We said in Order 1000 you cannot have an incumbent have the right to build a line, but instead, that there should be competition for those lines.
我们在1000号指令中说过，你不能让现任者有权建设一条线路，而是应该让这些线路相互竞争。
Competition is this abstract idea. So let's walk through when it might actually apply in the context of building out transmission.
竞争是一个抽象的概念。让我们来看看它在建设输电方面的实际应用情况。
Here's a hypothetical. It's Massachusetts 2002, Tom Brady fresh off his first Super Bowl win.
这是一个假设。那是2002年马萨诸塞州，汤姆·布雷迪刚刚赢得他的第一个超级碗橄榄球赛冠军。
There's also a regional organization overseeing transmission in the Northeast, and they've noticed, hey, energy prices are kind of high in Boston.
还有一个区域组织负责监督东北部的输电，他们注意到，波士顿的能源价格有点高。
So they decide we need more transmission to make the power flow more efficiently.
所以他们断定需要更多的输电线路，以使电力更有效地流动。
Now, the question is, who builds it? In 2002, there would be no question - whichever utility was already there. In short, they're a monopoly.
现在，问题是，谁来建造它？2002年，毫无疑问是公用事业公司。简而言之，他们是垄断者。
So back to the hypothetical. If new lines needed built in Boston, you could just look at whatever utility was there. They would be the ones to build it by default.
回到假设。如果波士顿需要建造新线路，你可以看看那里的任何公用事业公司。他们默认是会建造它的人。
What Jon Wellinghoff wanted to do was to take that assumption away to allow other developers to say, hey, we can build those lines too and maybe do it better.
Jon Wellinghoff想要做的是消除这种假设，让其他开发商说，嘿，我们也可以建造这些线路，也许做得更好。
We would have multiple competitive parties out there trying to put in more lines in the country, and more lines would ultimately get built because of that competition.
我们将有多个竞争对手试图在全国铺设更多线路，最终会因为这种竞争而建造更多线路。
My belief is that competition provides for faster, better, cheaper. That's all going to help consumers.
我认为竞争会带来更快、更好、更便宜的线路。这一切都会帮助消费者。
All right. So it's now summer of 2011. FERC issues Order 1000. Competition is finally here.
现在是2011年夏天。联邦能源管理委员会发布了第1000号指令。竞争终于来了。
There are multiple projects all over the country - in California, in the Northeast, in parts of the Midwest - going through competitive bidding.
加利福尼亚州、东北部、中西部部分地区等地有多个项目正在进行竞争性招标。
If transmission needs arises, it doesn't just go to the utility that already exists. There is now a request for proposal.
如果有输电需求，它不会只交给现有的公用事业公司。现在有一个提案请求。
All sorts of developers could now step in and offer their own solutions. But... It didn't turn out the way that we had expected.
各种开发商现在可以介入并提供自己的解决方案。但是......结果并不像我们预期的那样。
Incumbent utilities were not happy. They pushed back against competition hard, finding exception after exception.
现任公用事业公司并不高兴。他们强烈抵制竞争，发现一个又一个例外。
To avoid it, they successfully preserved their monopoly through state legislative action.
为了避免竞争，他们通过州立法成功维持了垄断地位。
One study found only three to 8% of all transmission projects were competitively bid in the years after Order 1000 went into effect.
一项研究发现，在第1000号指令生效后的几年里，只有3%到8%的输电项目是通过竞争性招标的。
Ari Peskoe is the director of the Electricity Law Initiative at Harvard Law School. Ari understands why utilities pushed back like this.
Ari Peskoe是哈佛法学院电力法倡议的主任。Ari理解公用事业公司为什么会这样抵制。
Their business model is to be a monopolist. And transmission competition is sort of an existential threat to that.
他们的商业模式是成为垄断者。而输电竞争则威胁到了他们的地位。
So here we are in 2024, and the debate over who should build transmission rages on. But the stakes feel higher now.
现在是2024年，关于谁应该建设输电线路的争论仍在继续。但现在风险似乎更高了。
One estimate suggests it could cost more than $2 trillion to scale up transmission infrastructure.
一项估计表明，扩大输电基础设施的成本可能超过2万亿美元。
Those in favor of competition argue that non-utility developers have access to lower-cost financing, that they face fewer cost overruns and that they can find cheaper suppliers.
支持竞争的人认为，非公用事业开发商可以获得低成本融资，面临的成本超支更少，而且可以找到更便宜的供应商。
One study commissioned by a competitive developer estimates cost savings between 20 and 30%, consistent with similar developments in Canada and the U.K. If true, that would show up in your electricity bill.
一家竞争性开发商委托进行的一项研究估计，成本节省在20%到30%之间，与加拿大和英国的类似发展一致。如果属实，这将表现在电费单上。
There's just a general belief that competition lowers costs. It's not clear why that would not apply to transmission development.
人们普遍认为竞争可以降低成本。目前尚不清楚为什么这不适用于输电发展。
We took this argument to the utilities. Larry Gasteiger is the executive director of an organization called Wires who represents the utilities we're talking about.
我们把这个论点带到了公用事业公司。Larry Gasteiger是我们正在谈论的公用事业公司Wires的执行董事。
Anybody who, at least from a pretty superficial level, thinks about the issue, would assume competition is the way to go.
任何人从相当肤浅的层面思考这个问题，都会认为竞争是出路。
That's the way we work. While that may generally be the rule, there are going to be some exceptions. For instance, when an industry has the conditions of a natural monopoly.
这就是我们的工作方式。虽然这通常是规则，但也有一些例外。例如，当一个行业具有自然垄断的条件时。
When you think of monopoly - if you're not thinking about a board game with a thimble and a dog and a guy with a top hat - you might be thinking of AT&T or Standard Oil, acquiring all sorts of smaller companies.
当你想到垄断时——如果你没有想到一个有顶针、狗和戴大礼帽的人的棋盘游戏——你可能会想到美国电话电报公司或标准石油收购各种小公司。
Well, monopoly is not such a dirty word when it comes to things like water or gas or electricity.
当涉及到水、天然气或电力等事物时，垄断并不是一个肮脏的词。
There are factors associated with transmission that aren't normally factors in most other markets or other competitive situations.
与传输相关的因素通常不是大多数其他市场或其他竞争情况下的因素。
Like super high start-up costs. With water services, it wouldn't make much sense for a bunch of different water firms to compete each needing their own pipelines and infrastructure underground.
比如超高的启动成本。对于供水服务，一群不同的供水公司相互竞争是没有意义的，每个公司都需要自己的管道和地下基础设施。
The list of arguments against competition is long. Pro-utility advocate Larry Gasteiger points to opposing studies showing cost increases from competition, less reliability, delays to developments.
反对竞争的论点有很多。支持公用事业的倡导者Larry Gasteiger指出，反对的研究表明竞争导致成本增加、可靠性降低、开发延迟。
Timing is a concern with just 26 years to build an insane amount of transmission.
时间是一个问题，因为只有26年的时间来建造大量传输。
We should stick with what's tried and true and get transmission built the way we'd always done it in the past and meet the needs that we have today rather than try to experiment with new processes that don't seem to be working.
我们应该坚持经过实践检验的方法，按照我们过去一贯的做法建设输电线路，满足我们今天的需求，而不是尝试似乎行不通的新流程。
The U.S. grid isn't close to being ready for a net zero emissions economy. You've got new investment and high-voltage lines near zero while demand for electricity is only going up.
美国电网还远未为实现净零排放经济做好准备。新投资和高压线路几乎为零，而电力需求却在不断上升。
And there's no sign that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission or FERC will take a firm stance on how to build out transmission.
而且没有迹象表明联邦能源管理委员会将对如何建设输电线路采取坚定立场。
The regulator did revisit the issue in May and pulled back slightly from competition. But it didn't take a hard line.
监管机构确实在5月份重新审视了这个问题，并略微退出了竞争。但它并没有采取强硬路线。
So odds are states and regions will decide themselves whether to select new developments with a competitive or a monopoly approach.
因此，各州和地区很可能会自行决定是选择采用竞争方式还是垄断方式的新开发项目。
So we're just kind of muddling through. We asked the former FERC chairman Jon Wellinghoff this.
所以我们只是在摸索。我们向联邦能源管理委员会前主席乔恩·韦林霍夫询问了这个问题。
Whether you're on the competitive side or the incumbent side, it looks like a mess.
无论你是站在竞争一方还是在任一方，看起来都是一团糟。
I mean, state legislatures are making decisions. FERC didn't say anything strongly one way or the other. Am I missing something?
州立法机构正在做出裁定。联邦能源管理委员会并没有以任何方式强烈表达任何意见。我是不是漏掉了什么？
No, you're not missing anything. It is a mess, that's correct. All we can hope for is that those entities who do believe that we do need to decarbonize our electric system can help negotiate all of the foibles and barriers and issues that still confront us.
不，你没有漏掉任何东西。这真是一团糟，没错。我们唯一能希望的是，那些确实相信我们确实需要脱碳电力系统的实体企业能够帮助我们解决仍然面临的所有缺陷、障碍和问题。
Whether or not they decide to go with monopoly or competition, I mean, it just seems like new transmission is the goal here. Right, Cooper?
无论他们决定采用垄断还是竞争，似乎新的传输方式才是目标。对吧，Cooper？
Yeah, absolutely. And there is action towards that. A high-voltage electricity line will be just as sweet by any other name.
是的，绝对如此。而且正在采取行动。高压输电线换个名字也一样好。
Isn't there utilities on the Monopoly board? Yeah. The board game was ahead of us already.
大富翁棋盘上不是有公用事业吗？是的。棋盘游戏已经摆在我们面前了。
