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This is THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY. I'm Darian Woods. I'm Wailin Wong, and you are listening to Indicators of the Week.
这里是THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY。我是Darian Woods。我是Wailin Wong，您正在收听的是Indicators of the Week。
And today, we're going to be joined by our wonderful colleague from Planet Money - Nick Fountain.
今天，我们将邀请来自Planet Money的优秀同事Nick Fountain加入我们。
Hi, everybody. It's been too long. I'm so excited to indicate. Too long. But good to have you back.
大家好。好久不见。我很高兴能告诉大家。好久不见。但很高兴您回来。
We are so pumped to have you on the show. Today, we are highlighting some of the week's top indicators in the news, from Google's big antitrust defeat to the currency trade in Japan that jilted global markets to the best way to create the Olympic medal tally.
我们很高兴您能来参加节目。今天，我们将重点介绍本周新闻中的一些顶级指标，从谷歌的反垄断大败到日本抛弃全球市场的货币交易，再到创造奥运奖牌榜的最佳方式。
That's all after this break. Indicators of the Week. Darian, you are leading us off today.
休息后收听Indicators of the Week。Darian，今天从你开始。
My indicator is 90%. Google was found guilty this week of being a monopolist. You may have heard about this.
我的指标是90%。谷歌本周被判犯有垄断罪。您可能已经听说过这件事。
Yeah. This is a huge deal. We should mention that Google is a sponsor of NPR. Yes. Thank you, Nick. And I am excited to hear about it. What's going on there?
这是一件大事。我们应该提到谷歌是NPR的赞助商。是的。谢谢你，尼克。我很高兴听到这个消息。发生了什么事？
Yeah. It's this massive ruling that said, among other things, 90% of internet searches go through Google these days. Oh, Ask Jeeves is crying.
这是一项重大裁决，其中规定，除其他事项外，目前90%的互联网搜索都通过谷歌进行。哦，Ask Jeeves哭了。
I know. Ask Jeeves, is he, like, retired by now, or is he, you know, still making a wage? He's still butlering. Once a butler, always a butler.
我知道。Ask Jeeves现在是不是已经退休了，还是还在挣工资？他还在当管家。一日为管家，终身为管家。
Yeah. So Google broke the law when they paid other companies, like Apple, billions of dollars to have Google as the default search engine.
因此，谷歌向苹果等其他公司支付数十亿美元，让谷歌成为默认搜索引擎，这违反了法律。
Google is appealing the decision, and it could be a while before the exact remedy is dolled out, like, the consequence. But I want to talk through what those remedies could be. Is this a future where we're all forced to Bing?
谷歌正在对这一裁决提出上诉，确切的补救措施可能还需要一段时间才能出台，比如后果。但我想谈谈这些补救措施可能是什么。未来我们都被迫使用必应吗？
Not quite. There is a past antitrust case that we can look to for clues. After a lawsuit in the 1990s, Microsoft made a settlement with the Department of Justice in 2001.
不完全是。有一个过去的反垄断案件，我们可以从中寻找线索。在20世纪90年代的一场诉讼之后，微软于2001年与司法部达成和解。
And as part of that, it banned the deals that it was making with computer suppliers. So it's pretty safe to say that those payments to other companies for having Google as the default are out.
作为和解的一部分，微软禁止与计算机供应商达成交易。因此，可以肯定地说，那些将谷歌作为默认搜索引擎而向其他公司支付的费用已经不复存在。
And depending on what operating system or browser you're using - Firefox, Safari, or whoever - they might decide on a different default. That is the first potential remedy here.
根据您使用的操作系统或浏览器（比如Firefox、Safari），他们可能会决定使用不同的默认搜索引擎。这是第一个可能的补救措施。
You know, this is dating me, but I'm old enough to remember the Microsoft case from the '90s.
这有点过时了，但我已经足够老了，还记得90年代的微软案。
Yeah. And relatedly, the U.S. could follow the EU's lead. You know, for the last few years in Europe, you've got this screen that asks you which search engines you want to use.
与此相关的是，美国可以效仿欧盟的做法。过去几年在欧洲，你会看到这个屏幕询问你想使用哪个搜索引擎。
All right, so all in all, just, like, more choice for consumers, less defaulting to Google.
好吧，总而言之，消费者有了更多的选择，更少地默认谷歌。
Yes, 'cause Google knows that we're all very lazy, and we'll just keep... Oh, yeah. With whatever we already have, which is... Absolutely.
是的，因为谷歌知道我们都很懒，我们只会继续……哦，是的。不管我们已经拥有什么，那就是……绝对的。
What's helped make them a lot of billions of dollars. Another thing is that Google may have to share some of its user data or its algorithm. All right. And what about just a big old fine?
是什么帮他们赚了数十亿美元。另一件事是谷歌可能不得不分享一些用户数据或算法。好吧。那么只是一笔巨额罚款呢？
Yeah. That could be on the table as well. And another thing - and this wasn't part of the eventual Microsoft settlement - is that Google may be forced to break up. Maybe Google Chrome or Android become separate companies.
这也可能会被考虑。还有一件事——这不是微软最终和解的一部分——谷歌可能被迫分拆。也许Google Chrome或Android会成为独立的公司。
I wonder if this is going to be the end of those deals where Coca-Cola is the exclusive drink choice in a stadium or whatever.
我想知道这是否会终结可口可乐成为体育场或其他地方的独家饮料的交易。
Yeah. So I'm no lawyer, and each case is different, but I think companies that may be accused of being monopolists may be reevaluating any exclusive supply agreements they might have.
我不是律师，每个案例都不同，但我认为可能被指控为垄断者的公司可能会重新评估他们可能拥有的任何独家供应协议。
All right. Looking forward to a lot of antitrust stuff in the next coming years. Wailin, what do you got?
好吧。期待未来几年有很多反垄断的事情。Wailin，你有什么收获？
Well, my indicator is 75%. This refers to something that's been happening in financial markets over the last week and also into this week. You may have heard it called the Great Unwind.
我的指标是75%。这指的是过去一周以及本周金融市场发生的事情。你可能听说过“大平仓”。
That sounds chill, sitting on the beach unwinding. Yeah. Take that and then pretend like it's opposite day 'cause the Great Unwind... In financial markets is actually very stressful. Burn.
听起来很轻松，坐在沙滩上放松。接受这个，然后假装是相反的日子，因为“大平仓”……金融市场实际上非常紧张。烧钱。
Basically, for years, investors used a strategy called the yen carry trade. These investors had hundreds of billions of dollars tied up in this trade.
基本上，多年来，投资者使用了一种称为日元套利交易的策略。这些投资者在这项交易中投入了数千亿美元。
And this week, there was a big sell-off. That's the Great Unwinding. JP Morgan estimates that 75% of the carry trade has been unwound. So that is my indicator, 75%.
本周，出现了大规模抛售。这就是“大平仓”。摩根大通估计，75%的套利交易已经平仓。这就是我的指标，75%。
OK. So the glory days of the yen carry trade seem to be over for now. Can you give us a crash course on what exactly it is?
好的。日元套利交易的辉煌时期似乎已经结束了。你能给我们速成一下它到底是什么吗？
Yeah. So a carry trade is where someone borrows money in a place that has low interest rates and uses that money to invest in a place with high interest rates.
套利交易是指某人在低利率的地方借钱，然后用这笔钱在高利率的地方投资。
You can think of it as a kind of arbitrage. And for years, investors were doing a carry trade with the Japanese yen.
你可以把它看作是一种套利。多年来，投资者一直在用日元进行套利交易。
Yeah. 'Cause Japan had super low interest rates, like, at or near zero, for as long as I can remember.
因为日本的利率非常低，在我的记忆中，利率一直处于零或接近零的水平。
That's right. Unlike much of the rest of the world that's been dealing with high inflation these last few years, Japan's had a different problem - a sluggish economy.
没错。与过去几年一直面临高通胀的其他国家不同，日本面临的问题不同——经济低迷。
So Japanese rates have been super low. And, of course, here in the U.S., we've seen the Fed's benchmark interest rate go up to, like, 5%.
日本的利率一直非常低。当然，在美国，我们已经看到美联储的基准利率上升到5%左右。
So if you're a yen carry trader, you are borrowing yen at close to 0% interest, and then you're using that yen to buy, say, U.S. tech stocks.
如果你是日元套利交易者，你就会以接近0%的利率借入日元，然后用这些日元购买美国科技股。
So investors had borrowed a lot of yen in these last few years. Yeah, like, hundreds of billions of dollars' worth. And then last week, the Japanese central bank raised interest rates to bolster the value of the yen, and the carry trade isn't looking so great anymore.
因此，投资者在过去几年中借入了大量日元。价值数千亿美元。然后，上周，日本央行提高了利率以支撑日元的价值，套利交易看起来不再那么好了。
So all those investors who had bought, you know, U.S. tech stocks with Japanese yen, they were under pressure to sell those stocks and whatever else they had bought with that borrowed yen. So that is the Great Unwind.
因此，所有那些用日元购买美国科技股的投资者都面临着出售这些股票以及用借来的日元购买的其他东西的压力。这就是大平仓。
And that's one of the things that led to all that market tumult this week, right?
这是导致本周市场动荡的原因之一，对吧？
That's right. And so it's been a very wild ride this week, and also, speaking of wild rides, we've got the highs and lows of the Olympics, which I can't look away from. And, Nick, that brings us to your indicator.
没错。本周的旅程非常疯狂，而且说到疯狂，我们经历了奥运会的高潮和低谷，我无法将目光移开。尼克，这让我们想到了你的指标。
I am here with the current results of one of the most important races in the Olympics. Can you guess? Is it the rowing? Steeplechase?
我在这里带来的是奥运会中最重要的比赛之一的当前结果。你能猜到吗？是赛艇吗？障碍赛？
No, I'm not talking about those. I am talking about the medals-per-country count, but a very particular variant of the medals count per country.
不，我说的不是这些。我说的是每个国家的奖牌数，每个国家奖牌数的一个非常特殊的变量。
Because, you know, is it really surprising that the countries that have the biggest populations or are the richest get the majority of the medals?
因为人口最多或最富有的国家获得大多数奖牌真的令人惊讶吗？
No, it is not. What we love at THE INDICATOR is an underdog story. What we love is a story of someone punching above their weight, a story of a country punching above their gross domestic product.
不，这并不令人惊讶。我们在THE INDICATOR中喜欢的是弱者的故事。我们喜欢的是某人超越自己能力的故事，一个国家超越其国内生产总值的故事。
Oh, yes. You are speaking our language. And maybe we should just quickly define GDP, speaking of language. It is the sum total of all the goods and services produced in a country in a year.
哦，是的。你说的是我们的语言。也许我们应该快速定义一下GDP。它是一国一年内生产的所有商品和服务的总和。
Yeah. This ranking, I'm guessing, is seeing which countries over-index as far as medals compared to their GDP.
是的。我猜这个排名是要看看哪些国家的奖牌数量超过其GDP。
That's right. Yes. And atop the list this year, according to the website medalspercapita.com, which does a little complicated math to come up with this weighted medal count -
没错。是的。根据网站Medalspercapita.com的数据，今年的榜首是经过一些复杂的计算得出的加权奖牌数——
so golds count more than silvers, count more than bronzes - so the leaders are the tiny island nations of Dominica, Saint Lucia, Grenada and Jamaica. Those are the top four.
金牌比银牌多，比铜牌多——领先者是多米尼加、圣卢西亚、格林纳达和牙买加这几个小岛国。这些是前四名。
Congratulations. It seems like there's a huge advantage to being a small Caribbean, it seems, nation.
恭喜。看来，作为一个加勒比海小国，似乎有巨大的优势。
I do wonder, though. Sorry to rain on the parade. Do you think there might be something here about what's known as the law of small numbers? Interesting you would say that. Go on.
不过，我确实想知道。很抱歉扫兴。你认为这里可能存在所谓的小数定律吗？你这么说很有趣。继续。
Yeah, so this idea that, you know, when you have small samples, you can get quite extreme results, perhaps by charts.
是的，所以这个想法是，当你有小样本时，你可以得到非常极端的结果，也许通过图表。
I think you are not wrong. These tiny island nations have only a few, sometimes only one, medal.
我认为你说得没错。这些小岛国只有几枚奖牌，有时只有一枚。
But I will say I think I know where you're going with this, Darian, because if you only count countries that have, like, say, 10 medals, your home country of New Zealand does very, very well. So if that's what you were fishing for, congratulations.
但我想说，我知道你的意思，Darian，因为如果你只计算拥有10枚奖牌的国家，你的祖国新西兰表现非常非常好。如果这就是你想要的，恭喜你。
I was no help. I was no help in the New Zealand effort. Oh, Darian.
我没有帮助。我没有帮助新西兰的努力。哦，Darian。
Wow. Way to play the long game. This whole episode just culminating in - what? - us congratulating you because New Zealand is so good at medals per GDP.
玩长线游戏的方式。整个事件最终以......什么？我们祝贺你，因为新西兰的奖牌与GDP之比非常好。
We love our medals-per-capita count, as a smallish island nation. Yes. Yes. We love the Olympics on that measure.
作为一个较小的岛国，我们喜欢我们的人均奖牌数。是的。是的。我们喜欢这个衡量标准的奥运会。
