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Hey, Robert. Must be a hot day in New York. You are fanning yourself like a Regency-era heroine.
嘿，罗伯特。纽约的天气一定很热。你像摄政时代的女主角一样扇着扇子。
It has been pretty humid here this July, but I think I finally found something that might be able to cool me down.
今年7月这里一直很潮湿，但我想我终于找到了可以让我冷静下来的东西。
Wait, is that a copy of the latest Beige Book? Are you, in fact, fanning yourself with an obscure government document about the latest economic conditions of the United States?
等一下，是最新的《褐皮书》吗？事实上，你是在用一份关于美国最新经济状况的晦涩难懂的政府文件扇着扇子吗？
Let me explain. I was reading it, as we do here every time it's released, and it talks about how the labor market in some states is cooling and how inflation in many sectors is mild. And so I wanted some of that economic cooling on my face.
让我解释一下。我正在阅读它，就像我们每次发布它时一样，它谈到了一些州的劳动力市场正在降温，许多行业的通货膨胀率很低。所以我想让一些经济降温的感觉出现在我的脸上。
I think you are really stretching the metaphor this time, Robert, even for the Beigie Awards. Maybe you should just, like, do the thing.
我觉得你这次真的在夸大比喻，罗伯特，即使是Beigie Awards栏目也没有如此夸大。也许你应该这样做。
OK, OK. It's the Beigie Awards, our eight-times-a-year salute to the art and science of telling stories about the economy. I'm Robert Smith.
好的，好的。这是Beigie Awards，我们一年八次向讲述经济故事的艺术和科学致敬。我是罗伯特·史密斯。
And I'm Wailin Wong. It's a sleepy summer, and the Beige Book depicts a pretty dreamy economy. But the book does contain some nightmares for a few essential businesses.
我是Wailin Wong。这是一个沉闷的夏天，《褐皮书》描绘了一个相当梦幻的经济。但这本书确实包含了一些对一些重要企业的噩梦。
We will tell you those stories, give out the awards and make this joint even cooler after the break.
休息后，我们将向您讲述这些故事，颁发奖项，并使这个联合节目更加精彩。
I always like to remind people how this award show works. There are 12 regional banks in the Federal Reserve system.
我总是喜欢提醒人们这个颁奖典礼是如何运作的。联邦储备系统有12家地区银行。
Each one carefully studies their local economy and brings back these little stories of what they see, publishes them in a document known as the Beige Book.
每家银行都仔细研究了当地的经济，并带回了他们所看到的这些小故事，将它们发表在一份名为《褐皮书》的文件中。
We read it, so you don't have to, and we give awards to the best stories.
我们阅读它，这样您就不必阅读了，我们会为最佳故事颁发奖项。
We will give out three awards today, and they all have a common theme - insurance.
今天我们将颁发三个奖项，它们都有一个共同的主题——保险。
We've done a few INDICATOR episodes recently about how homeowners insurance and car insurance have been getting more expensive.
我们最近做了几期INDICATOR节目，讲述房主保险和汽车保险如何变得越来越贵。
It turns out that those are not the only kinds of insurance giving people trouble.
事实证明，这些并不是唯一给人们带来麻烦的保险。
For instance, our second runner-up award goes to the Atlanta Fed for this line in the Beige Book.
例如，我们的亚军奖颁给了亚特兰大联储，获奖原因为《褐皮书》中的这句话。
Quote, "insurance costs continue to rise, though at a slower pace with cyber risk insurance often mentioned as an outsized expense."
引文是：“保险成本继续上涨，但速度有所放缓，网络风险保险经常被提及为一项超额开支。”
Cyber risk insurance - I guess that makes sense. I mean, we've been hearing so much about companies, health care systems, even governments who have had cyberattacks.
我想网络风险保险是有道理的。我们听到了很多关于公司、医疗保健系统甚至政府遭受网络攻击的消息。
And the more something bad happens, the more you have to pay an insurance company to protect you. That is one of the basic principles of insurance.
而且，坏事发生得越多，你就必须向保险公司支付越多的费用来保护你。这是保险的基本原则之一。
That's right. OK, let's do our first runner-up for the Beigie. It goes to the Cleveland Fed.
没错。好吧，让我们来看看《褐皮书》的亚军。它颁给了克利夫兰联储。
And another insurance hike. I will read the quote. "Reports of increasing health insurance costs remained pronounced, and one banker said their premium level increased by 15% this year." Yowza, 15%. So inflation is not over yet when it comes to insurance.
还有另一项保险费上涨。我会读一下引文。“关于医疗保险成本上涨的报道仍然很明显，一位银行家表示，他们的保费水平今年上涨了15%。”哇，15%。所以说到保险，通货膨胀还没有结束。
I did a little bit of research on this, and there is another big principle of insurance.
我对此做了一些研究，保险还有另一个重要原则。
When costs in the regular economy go up, there's often a bit of a delay before you see those costs reflected in insurance.
当常规经济的成本上升时，通常要过一段时间才能看到这些成本反映在保险中。
So in this case, as hospitals and doctors started to see increased costs last year, they raised their health care prices, renegotiated with insurance companies.
因此在这种情况下，由于医院和医生去年开始看到成本增加，他们提高了医疗价格，并与保险公司重新谈判。
Then a year later, insurance companies respond with their own premium increases for the rest of us.
然后一年后，保险公司对我们其他人的保费上涨作出回应。
And we have one more concerning insurance story, the winning anecdote. Robert, the envelope, please. The Beigie Award goes to the Kansas City Fed.
我们还有一个关于保险的故事，获奖轶事。罗伯特，请把信封拿来。Beigie Award颁给堪萨斯城联邦储备银行。
Coming to the stage is Steven Howland, a senior researcher at the Kansas City Fed. We spoke to him on July 19. Steven, congratulations.
上台的是堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的高级研究员史蒂文·豪兰（Steven Howland）。我们在7月19日采访了他。史蒂文，恭喜你。
Yeah. Happy to share this story to the national stage. Steven, insurance seems to be going nuts around the country.
是的。很高兴在全国舞台上分享这个故事。史蒂文，全国的保险业似乎都疯了。
Yeah. So the insurance markets are certainly volatile right now. Like, everybody's feeling stress on the insurance from a number of different directions.
是的。所以现在的保险市场确实很不稳定。就像每个人都从不同的方向感受到保险的压力。
We found the Kansas City entry in the Beige Book to be particularly heartbreaking because it's about a massive insurance hike in a crucial industry - child care providers. Robert, would you please read the winning quote?
我们发现《褐皮书》中堪萨斯城的报道尤其令人心碎，因为它讲述了一个关键行业——儿童保育机构——的保险大幅上涨。罗伯特，你能读一下获奖引言吗？
"Child care contacts noted increasing liability insurance premiums are an emerging challenge for their business.
“儿童保育联系人指出，责任保险费的上涨是他们业务面临的新挑战。
One provider said their premiums increased 94% last year, and another suggested a growing informal child care network is operating without insurance due to the rising costs."
一家机构表示，去年他们的保费上涨了94%，另一家机构表示，由于成本上涨，越来越多的非正式儿童保育网络在没有保险的情况下运营。”
Yikes. The day care industry is just in shambles right now. There aren't enough seats to meet the demand, the prices are already high for parents, and the pandemic put some providers out of business. Now there's liability insurance.
日托行业现在一片混乱。没有足够的座位来满足需求，家长们的收费已经很高，疫情导致一些机构破产。现在还有责任保险。
What our contacts have typically said is that child care is in crisis. It's a broken system.
我们的联系人通常会说，儿童保育正处于危机之中。这是一个支离破碎的系统。
So they're facing challenges with keeping and attracting workforce when they don't have the workforce that affects the number of kids they can bring in.
因此，当他们没有足够的劳动力来影响他们可以招收的孩子数量时，他们面临着留住和吸引劳动力的挑战。
And then they have to charge more for each child. And that affects the ability for low- and moderate-income parents to go into the workforce and staff those jobs in the child care centers, even.
然后他们不得不为每个孩子收取更高的费用。这影响了低收入和中等收入父母进入劳动力市场并在托儿所工作的能力。
And now, a 94% increase in liability insurance. Steven told us that their contacts weren't told the reasons for the rate hike. So we called up someone who's been working with child care providers.
现在，责任保险增加了94%。史蒂文告诉我们，他们的联系人不知道费率上涨的原因。所以我们打电话给一位一直与儿童保育机构合作的人。
Caitlin Jensen is the executive director of Zero to Five Montana, a nonprofit trying to increase child care options in the Big Sky State. And frankly, increase options for herself.
凯特琳·詹森（Caitlin Jensen）是Zero to Five Montana的执行董事，这是一家非营利组织，旨在增加Big Sky State的儿童保育选择。坦率地说，增加她自己的选择。
Yeah. I have a 8-month-old and a 3-1/2-year-old. And so - yeah, so we're in it. Say no more, Caitlin.
是的。我有一个8个月大的孩子和一个3岁半的孩子。所以我们参与其中。凯特琳，别再说了。
Caitlin says that the child care providers she works with are already stressed by those forces that Steven had talked about - recruiting staff, finding safe locations, keeping costs down.
凯特琳说，与她合作的儿童保育机构已经因史蒂文谈到的那些因素而感到压力——招聘员工、寻找安全地点、降低成本。
And child care, rightly so, it's a highly regulated industry. Like, as a parent, you want your kids to be safe and in good conditions.
儿童保育理所当然是一个受到严格监管的行业。作为父母，你希望你的孩子安全且处于良好的环境中。
But with those regulations also means that as a child care provider, you're having to, you know, increase staffing. Your operating costs are high.
但这些规定也意味着，作为儿童保育机构，必须增加员工。运营成本很高。
And now they face these huge increases in the cost of liability insurance. Caitlin says she heard in a webinar about one insurance provider who said they were receiving more claims from child care centers, and that's why they had to increase insurance premiums.
现在，他们面临着责任保险成本的大幅上涨。凯特琳说，她在一次网络研讨会上听说，一家保险公司表示，他们收到了更多来自托儿中心的索赔，这就是他们不得不提高保险费的原因。
Caitlin's organization also sent out a survey to child care providers asking them, what reasons did the insurance company give to cancel or increase the price of your insurance?
凯特琳的组织还向托儿中心的提供者发送了一份调查问卷，询问他们，保险公司取消或提高保险价格的理由是什么？
I just have to pull out my little paper, too. People talked about they're - if they're operating out of a mobile home, if there's presence of dogs in the location, if they're providing transportation or have, like, enrichment activities like swimming or gymnastics -
我也不得不拿出我的小纸条。人们谈到，如果他们在移动房屋里经营，如果该地点有狗，如果他们提供交通工具，或者有游泳或体操等丰富多彩的活动——
like, that was a reason why they were getting dropped or why insurance was going up - if they're providing care to children with special needs, and then if they're located on a busy road.
这就是他们被解雇或保险费上涨的原因——如果他们为有特殊需要的儿童提供护理，如果他们位于繁忙的道路上。
It's like the saddest Dr. Seuss rhyme. You can't get insurance in a house or with a mouse or near a dog or next to a bog, although, actually, I don't think you should have a child care next to a bog. That's fair. That's fair. Too risky. Too risky.
这就像苏斯博士最悲伤的童谣。你不能在有老鼠的房子里、狗附近或沼泽旁边买保险，尽管实际上，我认为你不应该在沼泽旁边设立托儿所。这很公平。这很公平。太冒险了。太冒险了。
This whole thing has been a catch-22. States like Montana have been trying to increase the options for child care and reduce some of their strict regulations.
整个事情都陷入了两难境地。蒙大拿州等州一直在努力增加托儿服务的选择，并减少一些严格的规定。
But more people offering child care means that insurance companies can find more reasons for something to go wrong and then increase premiums. And then some providers are forced out of business.
但提供托儿服务的人越多，保险公司就能找到更多出错的理由，然后提高保费。然后一些提供商就会被迫停业。
That's now X number of parents who are out of child care and are either trying to scramble to get on a waitlist or are having to maybe potentially even leave the workforce. So there's this, like, this big ripple effect.
现在有X数量的父母没有托儿服务，他们要么试图争先恐后地进入候补名单，要么甚至可能不得不离开劳动力市场。所以，这就像是一个巨大的连锁反应。
One thing they have started to talk about in Montana is the state creating some sort of reinsurance pool.
他们在蒙大拿州开始谈论的一件事是该州建立某种再保险池。
That could help share the risk of insurance companies and encourage them to lower their prices, but they haven't managed to get it through the state legislature.
这可能有助于分担保险公司的风险，并鼓励他们降低价格，但他们还没有设法通过州立法机构。
I do feel, Wailin, like we're going to hear a lot more about this issue across the country as these child care providers either try to pass on the increased costs that they're seeing to parents, or it becomes even harder for parents to find child care in the first place.
我确实觉得，Wailin，我们将在全国范围内听到更多关于这个问题的消息，因为这些儿童保育提供者要么试图将他们看到的增加的成本转嫁给父母，要么父母一开始就更难找到儿童保育服务。
Steven Howland from the Kansas City Fed, thank you for alerting us to this issue. And congratulations on winning the Beigie Award this time.
堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的史蒂文·豪兰，感谢您提醒我们注意这个问题。祝贺您这次获得Beigie Award。
Well, thank you very much, Robert. I'm glad we could highlight this issue for families that are affected by these rises.
好吧，非常感谢，罗伯特。我很高兴我们能够为受这些上涨影响的家庭强调这个问题。
