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This is THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY. I'm Darian Woods. And I'm Wailin Wong. And, loyal listeners, it is that time once more. It is Indicators of the Week.
这里是THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY。我是Darian Woods。我是Wailin Wong。忠实的听众们，又到了这个时间。这里是Indicators of the Week。
And to help us cover some of our favorite numbers in the financial news is our colleague from Planet Money, Keith Romer.
来自Planet Money的同事Keith Romer会帮助我们报道金融新闻中的一些我们最喜欢的数字。
Longtime listener, first time Indicator of the Week-er. Keith, you picked quite the Friday to join us for your first Indicators of the Week.
我是该播客的长期听众，第一次参加Indicators of the Week。Keith，你选了个不错的星期五来参加你的第一次Indicators of the Week。
Listeners might have noticed that a bad software update by a cybersecurity company brought down computer systems and millions of Microsoft Windows devices around the world.
听众可能已经注意到，一家网络安全公司的一次错误软件更新导致全球计算机系统和数百万台Microsoft Windows设备瘫痪。
Even the London Stock Exchange was affected. But Indicators of the Week is unscathed.
甚至伦敦证券交易所也受到了影响。但Indicators of the Week毫发无损。
Today on the show, we've got bankruptcy, we've got basketball, and we've got bringing the dollar down.
在本节目中，我们谈到了破产、篮球和美元贬值。
We will have all of those indicators for you right after the break. All right. Indicators of the Week. Wailin, you're up first.
休息后我们将为您带来所有这些指标。好的。Indicators of the Week。Wailin，你先来。
All right. My indicator is 346. That is the number of companies in the U.S. that filed for bankruptcy in the first half of 2024. This comes from financial data provider S&P Global.
好的。我要分享的指标是346。这是2024年上半年美国申请破产的公司数量。这来自金融数据提供商S&P Global。
And S&P says it has not seen this level of corporate bankruptcies at the half-year mark since 2010. That's when the economy was still dealing with the Great Recession.
标普表示，自2010年以来，半年内企业破产率从未达到如此高水平。2010年还处于经济大衰退时期。
I feel like that's not a time we want to return to. So is this higher interest rates finally making their way through the economy?
我觉得我们不想回到那个时候。那么，更高的利率最终会席卷经济吗？
If you've got a higher cost of borrowing and that's staying up, companies might be running into trouble keeping up on their debt payments.
如果借贷成本较高，并且持续上涨，公司可能会难以偿还债务。
Definitely looks that way. S&P attributed this elevated number of corporate bankruptcies to high interest rates and a slowdown in consumer spending, among other factors.
看起来肯定是这样。标普将企业破产数量增加归因于高利率和消费者支出放缓等因素。
But there is some nuance to explore here because, as you might know, there are different kinds of bankruptcies. So do you guys know the difference between Chapter 7 and Chapter 11?
但有一些细微差别需要探讨，因为破产有多种类型。那么你们知道破产法第7章和第11章的区别吗？
I do. Chapter 7 is the bad one, right? That is the one you have to liquidate your assets to pay your debts. Chapter 11 is the phoenix rising from the ashes potentially.
我知道。第7章是糟糕透顶，对吧？你必须清算资产来偿还债务。第11章可能是凤凰涅槃。
The company gets to keep itself going while it figures out new ways to pay things off in court.
公司可以继续经营，同时想出新的办法在法庭上偿还债务。
There are even some famous examples. I can think of General Motors, United Airlines.
甚至还有一些著名的例子，比如通用汽车、联合航空。
Yeah, and they're still going, right? Cars are still on the road, planes still in the sky.
是的，他们还在继续经营，对吧？汽车还在路上，飞机还在天上。
So of those 346 companies that filed for bankruptcy through June of this year, S&P says 64% of them opted for Chapter 11, the nicer one. It's a higher percentage than in 2010.
截至今年6月，在申请破产的346家公司中，标普表示，其中64%选择了第11章，即更好的一种。这一比例高于2010年。
So they are not necessarily liquidating, going out of business. They've still got a shot.
因此，他们不一定非要清算或破产。他们还有机会。
Exactly. And S&P says companies might be going the reorganization route via Chapter 11 because it buys them time to improve their financial situation while they wait for interest rates to come down, you know, whenever that is. Your guess is as good as mine.
没错。标普表示，公司可能会通过第11章进行重组，因为这可以为它们争取时间来改善财务状况，同时等待利率下降。你的猜测和我一样好。
Speaking of plunging financial indicators. My indicator is the U.S. dollar index, which is currently at 104.
说到暴跌的金融指标。我的指标是美元指数，目前为104。
It's a measure of how strong the U.S. dollar is against a bunch of other currencies like the euro and the Japanese yen. So 104 is about average over the last 50 years.
美元指数是衡量美元对欧元和日元等一揽子货币的汇率变化程度。104是过去50年的平均水平。
It's maybe a little stronger than normal. And I bring this up because of Senator JD Vance.
它可能比正常水平强一点。我之所以提起这件事，是因为参议员JD Vance。
JD Vance was announced this week, as you may know, as former President Donald Trump's running mate for vice president. And JD Vance has indicated he supports devaluing the dollar.
JD Vance本周宣布成为前总统唐纳德·特朗普的副总统竞选搭档。JD Vance表示他支持美元贬值。
Darian, how would that even work? Well, if this did happen, dollar devaluation, that would mean an agency, likely the Federal Reserve, would sell billions, maybe even trillions of U.S. dollars to buy foreign currencies on the exchange market.
Darian，这怎么可能行得通？如果美元真的贬值，那就意味着一个机构，可能是美联储，将出售数十亿美元，甚至数万亿美元的美元，在外汇市场上购买外币。
This would weaken the dollar because there'd be so many of them out there. It would make imports more expensive for Americans, but it would also be good for exporters.
这将削弱美元，因为市场上有太多的美元。这将使进口商品对美国人来说更加昂贵，但这对出口商来说也是好事。
Americans' TV screens and foreign cars would likely get more expensive.
美国人的电视屏幕和外国汽车可能会变得更贵。
But American corn farmers and factories would have more demand for their products because with a weaker dollar, foreign buyers can more easily afford their stuff.
但美国玉米种植者和工厂的产品需求会更大，因为美元贬值，外国买家更容易买得起他们的东西。
So this is an export boosting move. This is like his idea of economic policy is giving exporters a boost?
所以这是一项促进出口的举措。他的经济政策理念就像是在给出口商提振信心？
Yeah. And it would be a very unconventional policy for the modern-day United States. Of course, China controls its exchange rate, and that's great for its exporters.
是的。这对当今的美国来说将是一项非常不寻常的政策。当然，中国控制着汇率，这对出口商来说是件好事。
But most other major economies let their exchange rates float freely, more or less. This means that the currency is kind of agnostic about who in the country benefits from world trade.
但大多数其他主要经济体或多或少都让汇率自由浮动。这意味着货币对国内谁从世界贸易中受益有点不可知。
It's not tilting the game in favor of either consumers or exporters. Flooding the market with new dollars would also risk inflation becoming a problem again.
这不会让游戏偏向消费者或出口商。向市场注入新美元也会使通货膨胀再次成为问题。
OK. But, Darian, real talk, if Trump gets elected, do you think we'll actually see this happen?
好的。但是，Darian，说真的，如果特朗普当选，你认为我们真的会看到这种情况发生吗？
I think it will depend who the Treasury secretary is. You've also got Trump, who is often a critic of the strong dollar. But, you know, sometimes he has actually said the opposite.
我认为这取决于谁是财政部长。特朗普经常批评强势美元，但有时他其实说的是反话。
I think it would be a radical change, so it would require a radical coalition of people in power to push that through.
我认为这将是一次彻底的变革，因此需要一群掌权者组成一个激进的联盟来推动这一变革。
I may have missed the memo. I might be doing Indicators of the Week a little too frivolously after your two kind of quite serious indicators. Mine's about basketball.
我可能错过了备忘录。在你们的两种相当严肃的指标之后，我可能有点轻率地制定了Indicators of the Week。我的指标是关于篮球的。
Oh, no, no. This is like the perfect balance. That is a tried-and-true chaser formula.
哦，不，不。这就像完美的平衡。这是一个久经考验的追逐者公式。
We're going to do it. My indicator, like I said, basketball, lot of professional sports leagues, they have a salary cap, you know, sort of a limit on how much a team can pay for all of their players combined.
我们会这样做的。我的指标，就像我说的，篮球，很多职业体育联盟，他们有工资帽，这限制了一个球队能为所有球员支付多少钱。
OK. So the idea is this is the way teams that make less money because 'cause they're in smaller markets can still compete with teams from New York or LA or wherever.
好的。由于市场较小，赚得更少的球队仍然可以与来自纽约、洛杉矶或其他地方的球队竞争。
Or a team that just happens to have a gazillionaire as an owner, right?
或者恰好有亿万富翁老板的球队，对吧？
Exactly. So the NBA has had a salary cap for years but one with a lot of loopholes.
没错。所以NBA多年来一直实行工资帽，但漏洞百出。
And now they have this new extra, extra serious salary cap of $190 million, called the, quote, "second apron." And that is my indicator, 190 million.
现在他们有了新的额外的、非常严格的1.9亿美元工资帽，被称为“第二条土豪线”。这就是我的指标，1.9亿美元。
The second apron is so whimsical sounding. It's like a theater reference. I think it's like the apron on a stage. So before... Nothing to do with baking.
第二条土豪线听起来太异想天开了。这就像一个戏剧参考。我认为它就像舞台上的台口。所以之前……与烘焙无关。
I don't - I think stage, but again, just a guess. So before, under the old system, if you went too far over the salary cap, you eventually had to pay something called the luxury tax.
我认为是舞台，但同样，只是猜测。所以之前，在旧系统下，如果你超出工资帽太多，你最终必须支付所谓的奢侈税。
Basically, if you signed too many expensive players, you had to pay this escalating fine for each dollar you went over the line.
基本上，如果你签了太多昂贵的球员，你必须为超出的每一美元支付不断增加的罚款。
When the Golden State Warriors won the NBA title in 2022, they paid $170 million just in luxury tax.
当金州勇士队在2022年赢得NBA总冠军时，他们仅支付了1.7亿美元的奢侈税。
But then they won, right? So it's like that's just the cost of doing business and winning.
但后来他们赢了，对吧？所以这就像做生意和获胜的成本。
Right. It turns out some owners were just willing to pay whatever it took to win, which kind of defeated the purpose of the salary cap in the first place, which was to make that level playing field.
对。事实证明，一些老板愿意不惜一切代价赢得比赛，这在某种程度上违背了工资帽的初衷，即创造公平的竞争环境。
So the NBA has now changed the rules. They've added a new threshold called, in NBA lingo, the second apron, with a tougher set of penalties.
所以NBA现在改变了规则。他们增加了一个新的门槛，用NBA的术语来说，就是第二条土豪线，并设置了更严厉的惩罚措施。
So if you spend more than $190 million you will get punished in ways that will make it harder to win, right? So it's not just money anymore.
所以如果你花费超过1.9亿美元，你就会受到惩罚，这会让你更难获胜，对吧？所以这不再只是钱的问题了。
For one, you'll be really limited in how you are allowed to trade players. And you can have future draft picks move to the end of the line.
首先，你在交易球员的方式上会受到很大限制。你可以将未来的选拔权移到队伍的末尾。
So if you were going to have the 16th pick in the next draft, now you would have the 30th.
所以如果你在下一届选拔中拥有第16顺位，那么现在你将拥有第30顺位。
This is really interesting. So the money equation is actually affecting the rules of how things work behind the scenes.
这真的很有趣。所以货币方程式实际上影响了幕后运作的规则。
Yeah. I mean, time will tell about whether it actually works - right? - whether it really gives more teams a chance to win the title.
是的。时间会告诉我们它是否真的有效，是否真的给了更多球队夺冠的机会。
But the offseason free agent signings, that's all winding down right now. And you did see teams really reacting to these new rules.
但休赛期自由球员签约，现在都快结束了。你确实看到球队对这些新规则做出了反应。
They were letting really good players walk out the door because resigning them would have meant crossing that second apron line.
他们让真正优秀的球员走出大门，因为续约意味着要越过第二条土豪线。
It's such an interesting, like, real-time observation of how these incentives are playing out, right? Yeah. Incentives matter, it turns out - economics.
这是一个非常有趣的实时观察，看看这些激励措施是如何发挥作用的，对吧？是的。事实证明，激励措施很重要，即经济。
When you said that, with the new rules, it makes it harder to win, I was picturing them being like, OK, you have to, like, tie your shoe laces together.
你说有了新规则，获胜变得更加困难时，我想象他们会说，好吧，你必须把鞋带系在一起。
Just, like, total slapstick. Teams that pay too much have to play as a three-legged race. That's right.
完全像是闹剧。支付过多的球队必须像三足比赛一样比赛。没错。
What about a money adjusted number of players? So, like, you get a really expensive single player defending against, you know, other people.
经过货币调整的球员人数怎么样？你会得到一个非常昂贵的单个球员来防守其他人。
Lebron James plays the entire New York Knicks. They should make us the new NBA commissioners 'cause these ideas are amazing.
勒布朗·詹姆斯代表整个纽约尼克斯队。他们应该让我们成为新的NBA总裁，因为这些想法太棒了。
Or it should be like a cooking show, where you've got a limited budget, and you can either spend it on 20 mediocre people or one really good person.
或者它应该像烹饪节目一样，你的预算有限，你可以把钱花在20个平庸的人身上，也可以花在一个真正优秀的人身上。
You think that NBA should just be about cooking now? This is what I'm hearing. "Iron Chef." Yeah. It would be for the second apron.
你认为NBA现在应该只是烹饪吗？这就是我听到的《铁人料理》。是的。这将是第二条土豪线。
