Hello, hello. Let's do numbers. Numbers, numbers, numbers. Yes, we have great numbers. Today on the show, we'll take the temperature on global wealth.
大家好,我们来谈谈数字。是的,我们有很多数字。今天在节目中,我们将讨论全球财富的状况。
We'll talk trade loopholes for Chinese steel and a country bucking the trend towards a shorter workweek. We'll have those indicators after the break.
我们将讨论中国钢铁贸易漏洞以及一个逆势而行增加工作周的国家。休息后我们将讨论这些指标。
Indicators of the Week. Adrian Ma, you are first.
本周指标。从Adrian Ma开始。
My indicator comes from a company called UBS, a giant global financial services firm based in Switzerland, that every year puts out this annual report on global wealth.
我的指标来自一家名为瑞银集团(UBS)的公司,这是一家总部位于瑞士的全球大型金融服务公司,该公司每年都会发布一份全球财富年度报告。
And wealth is basically defined as everything from stocks and bonds to tangible stuff, like a house or a car.
财富定义基本上包括股票、债券以及房子或汽车等有形的东西。
And this year's report estimates that 43% of the world's population have somewhere between 10 and $100,000 in wealth.
今年的报告估计,43%的世界人口拥有10到10万美元之间的财富。
And what's interesting about this stat is that it's more than double what it was in the year 2000.
这个统计数据的有趣之处在于,它是2000年的两倍多。
So some of that is because people have gotten richer. Some of that is obviously because of inflation.
所以部分原因是人们变得更富有了。其中一些显然是由于通货膨胀。
But the numbers here are definitely higher than they used to be. OK. So what is driving this increase in wealth beyond just, like, inflation?
但这里的数字肯定比以前高。那么除了通货膨胀之外,是什么推动了财富的增长?
Well, they give a number of reasons. It depends on the country, but they cite globalization. They talk about the growth in emerging markets.
他们给出了一些原因。这取决于国家,但他们提到了全球化。他们谈到了新兴市场的增长。
They also cite rising real estate prices and the tech industry boom. And what about people on the higher and lower ends of the spectrum?
他们还提到了房地产价格上涨和科技行业的繁荣。那么处于高端和低端的人呢?
Similar story. So over the same period, from the year 2000 to about 2023, they say that the share of adults with less than 10,000 bucks in wealth has actually fallen by half, and the share of millionaires around the world has tripled.
类似的故事。在同一时期,从2000年到2023年左右,他们说财富不到10000美元的成年人比例实际上下降了一半,而全球百万富翁的比例增加了两倍。
Because some of that is driven by inflation, I guess. A millionaire ain't what it used to be. Darian, it's still a million. It's still a million dollars.
因为我想其中一些是由通货膨胀推动的。百万富翁已经不像以前那样了。Darian,它仍然是一百万。它仍然是一百万美元。
It's still a million, yes, but it may buy you less than it used to. What's also interesting from this report is what it says about wealth inequality around the world.
是的,它仍然是一百万,但它可能买不到以前一百万能买到的东西了。这份报告中关于全球财富不平等的报道也很有趣。
It found that wealth inequality over the past decade and a half has really increased a lot in places like Brazil, South Africa, Spain and Finland. Interestingly, though, wealth inequality in the U.S. has actually decreased during that time.
报告发现,过去十五年,巴西、南非、西班牙和芬兰等地的财富不平等确实大幅增加。但有趣的是,美国的财富不平等实际上在此期间有所减少。
All right. So from global inequality to globalization. Darian, what have you got for us? So speaking of globalization. Well, the opposite of that is tariffs, these trade barriers.
从全球不平等到全球化。Darian,你有什么要说的吗?说到全球化,与之相反的是关税,这些贸易壁垒。
My indicator is about tightening tariffs for foreign steel. Right now, the tariff on steel is 25%, and that's been in place for a while since President Trump.
我的指标是收紧外国钢铁的关税。目前,钢铁关税为25%,自特朗普上任以来已经实施了一段时间。
The target was realistically China here, but you've got Canada and Mexico with this exception. So, in other words, a loophole.
这里的目标是中国,但加拿大和墨西哥除外。换句话说,这是一个漏洞。
Yes, indeed. So let's say you bring steel from China to Mexico. You could then send it up to the U.S. tariff-free. That definitely sounds like a loophole.
是的,确实如此。假设你把钢铁从中国运到墨西哥,然后你可以免关税运到美国。这听起来绝对是一个漏洞。
In case you were a budding steel trader, that's my advice. Although that advice is out of date because this Wednesday, the Biden administration and Mexico's president made a joint announcement on steel and aluminium - or aluminum to you guys.
如果你是一位崭露头角的钢铁贸易商,这就是我的建议。虽然这个建议已经过时了,因为本周三,拜登政府和墨西哥总统就钢铁和铝发表了联合声明。
They made this new rule that the metals needed to be poured and actually cast in Mexico, the U.S. or Canada to avoid being subject to tariffs. Yeah. That makes sense.
他们制定了一项新规定,即金属需要在墨西哥、美国或加拿大浇注和铸造,以避免受到关税的影响。是的。这很有道理。
Yeah. I mean, if you're going to make a law, you should probably look out for the obvious ways around it, like sending stuff through Mexico.
我的意思是,如果你要制定法律,你应该留意明显的规避方法,比如通过墨西哥运送货物。
But that said, a lot of trade economists question whether these Trump-era tariffs should even be there in the first place.
但话虽如此,许多贸易经济学家质疑特朗普时代的这些关税是否应该存在。
These tariffs are a really expensive way to protect jobs - $650,000 per job, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. And it makes business more costly for downstream companies that use steel.
根据彼得森国际经济研究所的数据,这些关税是一种非常昂贵的保护就业的方式——每个工作岗位65万美元。而且它提高了使用钢铁的下游公司的业务成本。
So my understanding is that, sure, a lot of this is about politics, and, you know, politicians always want to look like they're supporting steelworkers.
所以我的理解是,当然,这很大程度上与政治有关,政客们总是想表现出支持钢铁工人的样子。
But there's maybe also, like, a national security component to this. Like, if we had a big war, the argument is it would be helpful to have a domestic steel industry that would make, like, ships and planes and arms and stuff like that.
但也许还有国家安全因素。比如,如果我们发生一场大战,那么争论的焦点是,拥有一个国内钢铁行业将大有裨益,因为可以制造船舶、飞机、武器等。
Yeah. You know what? I searched for the term national security in the press release this week, and it came up 19 times. So national security is the justification.
是的。我在本周的新闻稿中搜索了“国家安全”一词,它出现了19次。所以国家安全就是理由。
Yeah. Whether or not you buy that, it is another question. You know, that is the way that they're justifying it. So from China to Mexico and Canada. Now we're on to Greece, right, Erika?
是的。无论你是否相信,这都是另一个问题。这就是他们为其辩护的方式。从中国到墨西哥和加拿大。现在我们谈到希腊,对吧,Erika?
Right. So we're going to Greece. Now, we have been hearing for a little while about how all these different countries and different companies have been trying out the four-day workweek and saying, hey, this is great.
对。所以我们要聊聊希腊。现在,我们已经听说了一段时间,所有这些不同的国家和不同的公司都在尝试四天工作制,并表示支持。
You know, it's working for us. But Greece has decided to not just buck this trend, but the country is leaning in in the other direction.
这对我们很有利。但希腊决定不仅要逆势而行,而且要向另一个方向倾斜。
And may I introduce to all of you the six-day workweek? Yes. Just saying those words make me tired. It sounds attractive. Yeah.
我可以向大家介绍六天工作制吗?光是说这些话就让我感到疲倦。听起来很有吸引力。是的。
To who? So Greece set up this new law that allows private companies that operate 24/7 to decide whether workers should either work, like, two extra hours a day or work a whole other day, a sixth day.
对谁来说有吸引力?希腊制定了这项新法律,允许全天候运营的私营公司决定工人是每天多工作两个小时还是再工作一整天,即第六天。
Essentially, extending the whole 40-hour workweek to 48 hours. The Greek government says this new policy is an exceptional measure that's only to be used in special circumstances.
本质上是将40小时工作周延长到48小时。希腊政府表示,这项新政策是一项特殊措施,仅在特殊情况下使用。
What's the reason behind this kind of out-of-fashion step? Well, the prime minister of Greece says this is necessary because, like in a lot of places, the population has been shrinking.
这种过时措施背后的原因是什么?希腊总理说这是必要的,因为像很多地方一样,希腊人口一直在减少。
In Greece's case, young educated workers left the country in the aftermath of its economic crisis 15 years ago. Now, Greece, of course, you know, has turned that crisis around.
就希腊而言,15年前经济危机过后,受过教育的年轻员工离开了该国。现在,希腊当然已经扭转了危机。
Right. It's seeing some of the healthiest growth in Europe right now. But it still does not have enough skilled workers.
是的。它目前正经历欧洲最健康的增长。但它仍然没有足够的有技术的员工。
And the government has also said that having this kind of regulation is actually going to benefit workers.
政府还表示,制定这种规定实际上将使员工受益。
Some of them may already be working all those extra hours, but now they'll actually be on the books, so they will get paid for them, and they will get paid for them at an overtime rate as well.
他们中的一些人可能已经在加班了,但现在他们实际上已经加班了,所以会得到报酬,而且也会得到加班费。
So people are actually on board with this? Of course not. I mean, who wants to be told they have to work more? When this was first announced, there were all these protests.
那么人们真的同意六天工作制吗?当然不是。我的意思是,谁愿意被告知他们必须工作更长时间?当这个消息首次宣布时,人们都抗议了。
And there's already data that shows that, on average, workers in Greece are actually already working longer hours than workers in the EU and the U.S. And this is just going to add to that.
已经有数据显示,平均而言,希腊员工的工作时间实际上已经比欧盟和美国员工更长。
Welcome to long workweeks, Greeks. Let us know how it goes. It makes one almost thankful for the five-day workweek.
欢迎来到长工作周,希腊人。让我们知道进展如何。这让人几乎对五天工作周感恩戴德。