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No signs of deflation seen amid recovery
中国经济不存在所谓通缩
China's economy is positioned for continued recovery given the ongoing policy support and an uptick in economic indicators, keeping any potential risk of deflation at bay, officials and international experts said on Wednesday.
9月20日，国家发展改革委官员和国际专家表示， 随着政策组合拳效应逐步显现，多数指标边际改善，经济运行持续恢复，中国经济不存在所谓的通缩。
"Since the beginning of the year, prices have been at a low level, which we need to pay attention to," said Cong Liang, deputy head of the National Development and Reform Commission.
国家发展和改革委员会副主任丛亮表示：“今年以来物价仍然是在低位运行，需要引起重视。”
"However, taking into account the price level, demand recovery, economic growth and money supply factors, it can be concluded that there is no so-called deflation in the Chinese economy, and deflation will not occur later on," Cong said at a news conference on Wednesday.
“但是综合来看物价水平、需求恢复、经济增长、货币供应量等这些因素一块判断，中国经济不存在所谓的通缩，后期也不会出现通缩。”
China's consumer price index, a major gauge of inflation, showed a positive growth of 0.1 percent year-on-year in August amid recovering domestic demand characterized by accelerated retail sales, a pickup in lending activity and signs of a property market uptick in some regions, official data showed.
官方数据显示，作为衡量通胀的主要指标，中国8月消费者价格指数同比正增长0.1%，国内需求复苏的特点是零售销售加速、贷款活动回升，以及一些地区房地产市场出现升温迹象。
Price levels are likely to continue to improve and reach close to the annual average as market demand recovers while the unfavorable base effect fades, Cong said.
丛亮表示，随着需求稳步恢复，低基数效应逐步减弱，我国物价总水平有望继续回升并逐步回升到年均值水平附近。
He added that policymakers will amplify macroeconomic adjustments while focusing on expanding domestic demand, boosting confidence and preventing risks. "The economy will pick up with a positive long-term outlook as positive factors add up while the policy effect accumulates."
他补充说，政策制定者将加大宏观经济调整力度，同时专注于扩大内需、提振信心和防范风险。“随着政策效应不断累积，积极因素不断增多，我们完全有理由相信，我国经济将回升向好、长期向好。”
Hoe Ee Khor, chief economist of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office, said he does not see China anywhere near deflation. "China's economy is nowhere near a state where the economy is seeing very sluggish demand and low credit or money supply growth – conditions usually associated with deflation."
东盟与中日韩宏观经济研究办公室首席经济学家Hoe Ee Khor表示，他认为中国不会出现通缩。“中国经济远未达到需求非常低迷、信贷或货币供应增长率低的状态——这种情况通常与通缩有关。”
Thanks to well-calibrated and targeted policies and a gradual recovery in external demand, China's economy should continue to regain its vitality through 2023 and pick up moderately in 2024, which does not indicate deflationary outcomes, Khor said.
Khor说，得益于精心制定和有针对性的政策以及外部需求的逐步复苏，中国经济将在2023年持续恢复活力，并在2024年适度回升，这意味着不会出现通缩。
"We think that low inflation is going to be temporary while deflation is unlikely," said Yothin Jinjarak, senior economist at the Asian Development Bank's resident mission in China. In the latest edition of the Asian Development Outlook, issued on Wednesday, the ADB forecast that China's CPI growth will reach 0.7 percent this year and 2 percent in 2024, compared with a 0.7 percent growth in the first half of this year and a 0.3 percent drop in July.
亚洲开发银行驻中国代表处高级经济学家尤林·金加拉克表示：“我们认为低通胀将是暂时的，而通缩不太可能出现。”在20日发布的最新一期《亚洲发展展望》中，亚洲开发银行预测，中国今年的CPI增长率将达到0.7%，2024年将达到2%，而今年上半年CPI增长率为0.7%，7月份下降了0.3%。
Zou Lan, head of the monetary policy department of the People's Bank of China, said the central bank will strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments as there remains ample policy space to deal with any greater-than-expected challenges.
中国人民银行货币政策司司长邹澜表示，货币政策应对超预期挑战和变化仍然有充足的政策空间，将加强逆周期调节。
Zou said the central bank will keep liquidity conditions ample, lower financing costs of the real economy and encourage financial institutions to reprice outstanding mortgages and support the resolution of local government debt risks.
邹澜表示，央行将保持流动性合理充裕，引导实体经济融资成本稳中有降，推动银行积极调整存量房贷利率，指导金融机构积极稳妥支持地方债务风险化解。
"Various tools in reserve will be used to improve the supply-demand relationship in the foreign exchange market to resolutely fend off the risk of exchange rate overshooting," Zou said, adding that the Chinese renminbi has strengthened against non-dollar currencies since mid-July despite weakening against the greenback.
邹澜说：“将用好各项调控储备工具调节外汇市场供求，坚决防范汇率超调风险。”他补充说，尽管人民币兑美元走弱，但自7月中旬以来，人民币兑非美元货币持续走强。
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