Some people become value investors. Some might be born that way.
有些人会在后天成为价值投资者,而有些人也许天生就是。
Consider Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett's mentor and the author of 'Security Analysis' and 'The Intelligent Investor.'
就以本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)为例吧。他是巴菲特的导师,代表作有《证券分析》(Security Analysis)和《聪明的投资者》(The Intelligent Investor)。
Graham's widowed mother was a small-time speculator; she was wiped out during the Panic of 1907, when he was 13 years old.
格雷厄姆寡居的母亲是个小投机者,在“1907年大恐慌”(Panic of 1907)中赔得一干二 。当时格雷厄姆年仅13岁。
Graham never forgot the 'humiliating' moment in his childhood when his mother sent him to cash a check and the bank teller asked the manager if Mrs. Graham was 'good for five dollars.'
格雷厄姆永远也忘不了童年那个“耻辱”时刻:母亲让他到银行去兑现支票,而银行柜员问经理,格雷厄姆夫人是否“值五美元”?
Graham grew up to favor companies so universally despised by investors that the stocks were, as he liked to say, 'worth more dead than alive.' He resoundingly beat the market over his multidecade investing career.
成年后,格雷厄姆青睐遭到投资者普遍唾弃的公司。用他喜欢的话说,这些公司的股票“死掉比活着更有价值”。在几十年的投资生涯中,格雷厄姆的收益遥遥领先于大盘。
Or take the late Sir John Templeton, who grew up the son of a country lawyer in Winchester, Tenn. Templeton's father also was a speculator, trading cotton futures. He arrived home one day and told his young sons, 'Boys, we've lost it all; we're ruined.' Templeton worked odd jobs to scrounge his way through college and graduate school.
再来看看已故投资大师约翰·邓普顿爵士(Sir John Templeton)。邓普顿的父亲是田纳西州温切斯特(Winchester)的乡村律师,也是一名投机者,做棉花期货交易。有一天,他回家告诉年幼的儿子们:“孩子们,我们赔光了;我们破产了。”邓普顿靠打零工挣钱,艰难读完大学和研究生。
In 1939, at age 27, Templeton told his broker to buy him $100 worth of every listed U.S. stock trading for $1 a share or less; he quadrupled his money in four years.
1939年,27岁的邓普顿拿出100美元,让经纪人给他买进所有股价不超过1美元的美国上市公司股票;在四年时间里,他的投资翻了两番。
'People are always asking me where the [investing] outlook is good, but that's the wrong question, ' Templeton once said . 'The right question is: Where is the outlook most miserable?'
邓普顿曾说:“人们总问我哪儿的(投资)前景好,其实这是个错误的问题。正确的问法是,哪儿前景最悲惨?”
Their experiences might have shaped Graham and Templeton to favor cheap 'value' stocks over fast-moving 'growth' stocks. But that preference might also have been encoded in their genes.
格雷厄姆和邓普顿青睐便宜的“价值”股,而不是波动迅猛的“成长”股,这也许是由他们的经历所决定的。但这种偏好也有可能源自他们的基因。
In a speech at Babson College in 2010, the renowned value investor Seth Klarman remarked that research on fruit flies showed that most of them will swarm toward a light--but that a small minority appear to be genetically programmed to stay away from it.
2010年,著名价值投资者塞思·克拉曼(Seth Klarman)在美国巴布森学院(Babson College)发表演讲时说,对果蝇的研究显示,多数果蝇会涌向有光的地方──但有极少数果蝇似乎在基因的驱使下喜欢避光。
Mr. Klarman, president of the Boston-based Baupost Group, which manages $26 billion in hedge-fund assets, jokingly called these flies 'tiny contrarians, ' the insect equivalents of 'deep value investors.'
克拉曼调侃地称这些果蝇为“微型的逆向投资者”,它们是昆虫界的“深度价值投资者”。克拉曼是总部位于波士顿的对冲基金Baupost Group总裁,管理着260亿美元资产。
He went on to speculate that most people might possess 'a dominant gene' for chasing hot performance and overhyped assets, while only a minority have 'the recessive value gene' that confers a patient preference for whatever is battered and unpopular.
他接着说,他推测多数人也许拥有一种“显性基因”,喜欢追逐走势火爆、炒得过热的资产,只有少数人拥有“隐性价值基因”,这种基因决定了他们能耐下心来,优先选择一切遭到重创、无人问津的资产。
Mr. Klarman told me this past week that he still holds the same view.
克拉曼前不久告诉我,现在他仍持同样的看法。
A new study finds that many investors may in fact have a genetic predisposition to hunt for bargains in the stock market--although the environment you grew up in also powerfully shapes the kind of investor you become.
一项新的研究发现,许多投资者事实上可能具有一种在股市逢低买进的遗传倾向──尽管成长环境也会强有力地塑造你的投资风格。
In the study, three economists--Henrik Cronqvist and Frank Yu of China Europe International Business School in Shanghai and Stephan Siegel of the University of Washington--examined the genetic makeup and investment portfolios of 35, 000 twins in Sweden.
在研究中,上海中欧国际工商学院(China Europe International Business School)的亨里克·克龙奎斯特(Henrik Cronqvist)和余方以及华盛顿大学(University of Washington)的斯蒂芬·西格尔(Stephan Siegel)三位经济学家,考察了瑞典35,000名双胞胎的基因构成和他们的投资组合。
Identical twins share 100% of their DNA, while fraternal twins share about the same amount as brothers and sisters. The researchers compared the similarity of the portfolios held by identical twins and by fraternal twins. That enabled the economists to estimate the extent to which the same combinations of genes were associated with similar portfolios.
同卵双胞胎的DNA 100%相同,而异卵双胞胎共同基因的数量则与普通兄弟姐妹差不多。研究人员对同卵双胞胎和异卵双胞胎所持投资组合的相似性进行了对比。这使经济学家能够估测出相同基因组合与相似投资组合之间的相关性。
The analysis shows that the average stock held by these investors traded at a price/earnings ratio of 23 times. Only a 10th of the investors--call them 'deep-value hunters'--held stocks with an average P/E of 11.6 or lower.
分析显示,这些投资者所持股票的平均市盈率为23倍。仅有十分之一的投资者(可以把他们称为“深度价值投资者”)所持股票的平均市盈率在11.6倍或以下。
One quarter of all the investors--hard-core growth seekers--held stocks trading at an average of 28.6 times earnings or higher.
在全部投资者中,有四分之一的人(坚定的成长型投资者)所持股票的平均市盈率在28.6倍或以上。
The study's findings are relatively precise because its sample of investors is large and because Swedish tax law required complete disclosure of individual investors' holdings until recently.
这项研究的结果相对精确,因为其投资者样本很大,而且瑞典税法直到最近一直要求散户投资者完全披露资产持有状况。
According to the study, up to 24% of the differences in the degree to which investors favor value or growth stocks can be explained by variations in their genetic code .
研究显示,投资者对价值股或成长股有着程度不同的偏好,而在这些差异中,可用遗传密码差异来解释的部分高达24%。
It appears that favoring cheap value stocks or fast-moving growth stocks isn't just a preference; 'it is at least partly an innate tendency, ' says Prof. Siegel.
喜欢便宜的价值股还是波动迅猛的成长股,这似乎不仅仅是个人偏好的问题。西格尔教授说:“这至少在一定程度上是一种内在倾向。”
Environmental influences also help explain the 'tilt' toward value or growth investing, the researchers found. For example, if the economy was in a severe recession when an investor was between the ages of 18 and 25, or the investor's parents were relatively poor, he is more likely to prefer investing in cheap stocks.
研究人员发现,环境的影响也有助于解释投资者对价值或成长型投资的“倾向”。比方说,如果投资者在18─25岁时遭遇严重的经济衰退,或者投资者的父母比较贫困,那么投资者偏爱便宜股票的可能性会较大。
Genoeconomists, who study such stuff, haven't yet identified the specific variations that might work as 'value genes.'
研究这类问题的经济学家称为基因经济学家。他们迄今尚未确定,到底是哪种特定的基因变异可能扮演了“价值基因”的角色。
But the new findings suggest that you should ask financial advisers and investment managers: What adversity have you had to overcome in your life? And what does being poor mean to you?
但新的发现暗示,你应该问问你的理财顾问和投资经理:你在生活中遭受并克服过哪些挫折?贫困对你而言意味着什么?
After all, a financial adviser or investment manager who has never overcome a serious obstacle might not have what it takes to hold on to cheap stocks when they get a lot cheaper in a hurry. A value investor who can't withstand pain isn't a value investor at all.
毕竟,从未克服过严重困难的理财顾问或投资经理,也许并不具备相应的心理素质,在本已便宜的股票突然大幅下跌时仍坚持持有。不能承受痛苦的价值投资者根本就不是真正的价值投资者。