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Imagine you're a soccer goalie.
想象你是一位足球守门员。
Your opponent gets ready to take a penalty kick.
你的对手已经准备好踢点球。
You're crouched in front of the net.
你已经在门前严阵以待。
The past three kickers have aimed to your left.
刚才的3名主罚者都是瞄准你的左边。
So which way do you dive?
所以你准备扑哪边?
If you said “right,” you'd be in good company.
如果你说“右边”,你还算不错的门将。
Because when penalty shots repeatedly head in one direction, world-class goalkeepers are more likely to lunge the other way.
因为当点球都是反复瞄准同一方向,世界级的守门员更容易朝另一边扑救。
That's according to a study in the journal Current Biology.
这是根据《当代生物学》杂志上一项研究得出的结论。
This form of misconception—that a string of rights is bound to be broken by a left—is also common in casinos, so much so that it's called the “gambler's fallacy.”
这种一连串的右边势必会被一个左边打破形式的错觉,在赌场也是屡见不鲜,以至于它被称为 “赌徒谬论”。
At the roulette wheel, for example, bettors tend to back black after seeing a run of reds.
例如在轮盘赌中,赌徒们看到一连串的红色后往往支持黑色。
“We're due for a black,” the thinking goes.
“接下来就该是黑色了。”人们总是这样考虑。
But in reality, the roulette ball is still equally likely to land on either color.
但在现实中,轮盘赌球仍然可能在红黑中二择其一。
And despite what netminders might think, the same is true for penalty kicks.
然而守门员们可能认为这种观点同样适用于罚点球。
In fact, researchers studying 36 years' worth of World Cup and Euro Cup finals found that the direction of penalty shots is basically a coin-flip.
事实上,通过研究36年来的世界杯和欧洲杯决赛研究人员发现罚球的方向基本上跟抛硬币的概率一样。
Ah, but if kickers in the next World Cup were to take advantage of the goalie falling for the gambler's fallacy, they could really get a leg up.
啊,但如果在下一届世界杯上罚球者利用守门员赌徒谬论的观点,他们或许会全罚全中。
