之前出的一篇推文 日本人口太少，或将不复存在 中，提到日本总人口连续第11年减少，创了历史最大降幅。

文中谈到的婴儿出生率骤降的现象就跟今天的buzzword Baby Bust 有关。

要说 Baby Bust, 我们首先来看看它的反义词, 也就是更常见的Baby Boom, "婴儿潮"。

A Baby Boom is a period marked by a significant increase of birth rate.

顾名思义, "婴儿潮"指的就是在一定时期内出生率大幅上涨。

Take the US for instance, right after the World War II, there was an obvious Baby Boom. And people who were born within that 20-year period are called Baby Boomers.

比如美国在二战后就经历过这样的一个婴儿潮, 而那一段时期出生的人也被叫做the baby boomers, 婴儿潮一代。

On the contrary to a Baby Boom, a Baby Bust is a period marked by an obvious decrease of birth rate.

而和婴儿潮正好相反的就是Baby Bust. 它是指的在一个时期内生育率出现大幅的下降, 被翻译成"婴儿荒"。

Baby Bust

A Baby Boom is a period marked by a significant increase of birth rate. On the contrary, a Baby Bust is a period marked by an obvious decrease of birth rate.

Now when the COVID pandemic led to widespread economic shutdowns and stay-at-home orders in the spring of 2020, many media outlets and pundits speculated this might lead to a baby boom.

2020年疫情刚开始的时候, 很多媒体和专家都认为, 由于各国严格的疫情管控, 大家长期居家可能会导致一个新的baby boom, 婴儿潮的出现。

But it appears the opposite has happened: birth rates declined in many high-income countries amid the crisis.

但数据显示不仅没有婴儿潮, 反而在很多发达国家都出现了婴儿荒。

What has led to a

Baby Bust

”

According to experts, the uncertainty associated with a global pandemic and its impacts on families’economic circumstances are the most likely reasons for the trends.

Especially in the beginning of the pandemic, people didn't really understand what the disease is.

And many people were uncertain about their job prospects and their income.

造成疫情期的这种婴儿荒的原因, 主要就是因为巨大的不确定性uncertainty.

很多人对于自己的job prospects, 工作前景感觉到担忧。

This trend is not surprising to many demographers who have noted similar declines after catastrophic events, such as the 2008 financial crisis and 1918 influenza pandemic.

对于人口统计学家来讲, 这样因为灾难性事件引发的婴儿荒, 其实并不算是意料之外的事儿。

在08年的金融危机以及1918年流感大流行之后都出现过。

Fertility declines during and immediately after these crises are caused by couples postponing childbearing due to rising unemployment, increasing job insecurity and reduced household income.

身处这些大危机中, 或者在这些大危机之后的一段时间, 生育率一般都会出现降低, 因为失业率的激增, 工作稳定性降低, 家庭收入也随之降低, 导致很多人都会推迟要孩子。

The monetary stimulus from governments in some countries helped to prevent sharp fertility drops early in the pandemic.

不过一些国家的政府在疫情早期也出台了一些monetary stimulus, 货币刺激政策, 一定程度上控制了生育率下降的幅度。

Within a major trend of declining fertility rate, there are some more detailed findings during this baby bust in the US, for example:

Places with larger increases in unemployment experienced larger birthrate reductions.

比如失业率越高, 生育率下降的越多。

Places with larger increases in COVID-19 cases per capita experienced larger birth rate reductions.

新冠感染率越高, 生育率下降越快。

Highly educated women, older women, and those who already had children were most likely to postpone or avert births.

学历更高, 年龄更大, 或者已育的女性更倾向于晚生或不生。

What are the long term

effects of Baby Bust?

”

The long term effects of people having fewer babies during the pandemic are a matter of speculation.

刚才说到的都是现象, 至于疫情所带来的婴儿荒, 究竟会对以后有什么样的长期影响？专家有三个不同的推测：

The first one is the phenomenon could possibly lead to an economic boom like the roaring 20s after the 1918 influenza pandemic.

一种是说跟1918年流感大流行之后一样, 可能会带来一个经济繁荣期, 就好像美国的咆哮的20年代一样；

Or No.2, it could lead to a two-tiered recovery in which some families who were hit hard by the COVID pandemic and its economic impacts might be less likely to have children, whereas others who were less affected or even benefited might be more likely to do so.

第二种就是说生育率会出现一个两极化的发展, 那些受疫情影响很严重的家庭, 可能就倾向于少要孩子或者不要孩子, 而反之没有怎么受到疫情影响, 甚至因为疫情而获利的家庭则会有更强的生育意愿。

And speculation No.3 is that this short-term baby bust is not going to be significant enough to have any long-term effects.

还有人则认为这个因为疫情而导致的短暂婴儿荒, 在长远来看并不是大的问题, 也不会造成什么深远的影响。

Now if you look at the numbers now, you do see a rebound or recovery.

随着很多国家疫情政策的改变, 数据上确实能看到生育率的回升。

But researchers in the US also mentioned that pandemic baby bust and rebound or minor events in the context of a larger downward arc in birth.

不过美国的人口统计学家也提醒说, 其实不管是疫情期间短暂的婴儿荒, 还是说目前能看到的数据回升, 其实都并没有改变一个更长期的生育率下滑这样的现状。

They commented that this bust and rebound during the pandemic is really a blip on this much longer sustained decline in birth rate.

So I guess we'll just have to wait and see the long term effects of this baby bust.

例句示范

Example 1：

-With a potential baby bust on the horizon, the government is busy adopting proactive measures to boost fertility rate.