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The Hong Kong dollar had its worst one-day fall in more than a decade yesterday as investors speculated that it might have to adjust its long-running peg to the US dollar.
港元在本周四创下逾10年来最大单日跌幅，原因是投资者纷纷猜测当局将不得不调整长期实施的盯住美元的联系汇率制度。
It slipped 0.25 per cent against its US counterpart to HK$7.7886, a rate last reached in 2011 but still within its permitted range of HK$7.75 to HK$7.85. It was the currency’s biggest one-day slide since October 2003.
港元兑美元跌幅达0.25%，至1美元兑7.7886港元，这是自2011年以来未见的低位，但仍处在7.75-7.85的限定范围。这是港元自2003年10月以来的最大单日跌幅。
The fall was another sign of the renminbi’s volatility spilling over into other markets. Last week bets that the Chinese currency would weaken more sharply than expected pushed the offshore rate to its weakest against the dollar in more than five years.
此番下跌是人民币汇率波动蔓延至其他市场的又一标志。上周，对人民币贬值将超出预期的押注使得离岸人民币汇率跌至逾5年来的低点。
Buying by the People’s Bank of China this week strengthened the currency, sending offshore renminbi-denominated borrowing rates rocketing.
中国央行本周的购入加强了人民币，使离岸人民币计价的借贷利率出现飙升。
Strategists said the Hong Kong dollar’s weakness was a result of investors betting that China’s slowdown, and its softer currency, could lead the city to reconsider its regime.
策略师们表示，港元走软是投资者押注中国经济放缓以及人民币贬值可能使香港当局重新考虑其汇率制度的结果。
Zhou Hao, strategist at Commerzbank, said: “While we don’t doubt the credibility of the peg regime in the foreseeable future, the abnormal movements of Hong Kong dollar reinforce the risk-averse sentiment triggered by the recent China market turmoil.”
德国商业银行(Commerzbank)策略师周浩说：“虽然我们不怀疑联系汇率制度在可预见未来的可信度，但港元的异常变动加剧了中国市场近期动荡所引发的避险情绪。”
The double blow of rising US interest rates and China’s economic slowdown is expected to weigh heavily on Hong Kong’s economy this year. Analysts at HSBC recently cut their growth forecasts for the city from 2.2 per cent to 2 per cent.
美国加息及中国经济放缓的双重打击预计将在今年严重拖累香港经济。汇丰(HSBC)分析师最近将香港经济增速预测从2.2%下调至2%。
When the Hong Kong dollar last slipped significantly, in August after China’s unexpected 2 per cent devaluation, speculation that the city might change its peg was swept aside as investors, worried about mainland weakness, swapped renminbi deposits for Hong Kong dollars, strengthening the latter.
去年8月，港元在人民币突然贬值2%后显著下跌，当时有关港元可能会脱钩美元的猜测没有被理会，担忧内地经济疲软的投资者纷纷将人民币存款兑换为港元。
Since then the Hong Kong Monetary Authority has bought US dollars on numerous occasions to keep the Hong Kong currency within its band.
自那时起，香港金融管理局(Hong Kong Monetary Authority)多次干预汇市以保持港元处于限定区间。
Few expect the peg, in place since 1983, to come under serious threat this time, having survived the handover of the city from the UK, the Asian financial crisis, Sars, the global financial crisis and China’s economic rise.
很少有人认为，自1983年实施至今的联系汇率制度这一次会受到严重威胁，它经历了香港回归、亚洲金融危机、非典、全球金融危机以及中国经济的崛起而岿然不动。
“Of all the pegs in the world, the Hong Kong dollar is not the one that I think is going to go,” said Kit Juckes, macro strategist at Société Générale.
法国兴业银行(Société Générale)宏观策略师基特ㄠ克斯(Kit Juckes)表示：“在全世界所有与美元挂钩的货币中，我不认为港元会成为脱钩的一个。”
