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In the second quarter of this year, real domestic demand in the eurozone was 5 per cent lower than in the first quarter of 2008. The eurozone’s unemployment rate has risen by just under 5 percentage points since 2008. In the year to July 2014, consumer price inflation in the eurozone was 0.4 per cent. From these telling facts one can conclude three simple things: the eurozone is in a depression; lack of demand has played a crucial role; and the European Central Bank has failed to deliver on its own price-stability target. This is not just sad. It is dangerous. It is folly to assume continued stability if economic performance does not improve.
与2008年一季度相比，今年第二季度欧元区实际内需下降了5%。自2008年以来，欧元区失业率上升了近5个百分点。在截止2014年7月的一年里，欧元区消费者价格指数上涨0.4%。人们可以从这些明显的事实推断出3个简单的结论：欧元区经济不景气；需求不足是关键因素；欧洲央行(ECB)未能完成其稳定价格的目标。这不仅令人遗憾，而且还很危险。如果经济表现没有改善的话，认为物价能够保持稳定是愚蠢的。
A necessary, though not sufficient, condition for grappling with these challenges is understanding them. In this regard, Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, and the one senior eurozone policy maker who shows grasp of the issues, made a vital contribution at this year’s Jackson Hole symposium. Two points, in particular, need stressing. First, he stated that “we need action on both sides of the economy: aggregate demand policies have to be accompanied by national structural policies”. Second, he made a new promise: he remarked, off text, that the ECB “will use all the available instruments needed to ensure price stability in the medium term.”
解决这些挑战的一个必要（尽管并非充分）条件是要理解它们。就这一点而言，一位对这些问题表现出深刻理解的欧元区资深政策制定者——欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)在今年的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)研讨会上发表了重要的言论。他所提到的两点尤其值得强调。第一，德拉吉表示，“我们需要从经济的两方面采取行动：总需求政策必须伴随着各国的结构性政策”。第二，他做出了一项新承诺：他在脱稿演讲中说道，欧洲央行“将动用一切可用工具以确保中期物价稳定”。
Choirs of angels must have sung over the statement that the eurozone has a problem with demand. Hitherto, eurozone orthodoxy has treated this truth as unmentionable. No less important might be the promise of action. It reminds us of the celebrated “Whatever it takes”, delivered by Mr Draghi in London in July 2012. This led to the announcement of the ECB’s outright monetary transactions programme, which defeated pervasive panic without firing a shot. Astonishingly, yields on Italian and Spanish 10-year debt have fallen from 6.3 per cent and 7.0 per cent, respectively, at the beginning of August 2012, to a mere 2.3 and 2.1 per cent early this month. That is below the yield on UK gilts.
“天使合唱团”必定对欧元区存在需求问题的说法议论纷纷。迄今为止，欧元区的正统观点是不能提及这样的事实。同样重要的或许是关于采取行动的承诺。它让我们想起2012年7月德拉吉在伦敦说的那句著名的“不惜任何代价”。在那之后，欧洲央行宣布了“直接货币交易”(OMT)计划，从而在不费一枪一弹的情况下消除了无处不在的恐慌。令人惊奇的是，意大利和西班牙的十年期国债收益率分别从2012年8月初的6.3%和7.0%，下降至本月初的2.3%和2.1%，比英国国债的收益率还要低。
At Jackson Hole Mr Draghi stated he is “confident” that the package of measures announced in June and now being implemented will deliver the “intended boost to demand”. It is reasonable to be sceptical. In the six years to the second quarter of 2014, nominal demand rose a mere 2 per cent. Credit channels remain impaired. Fiscal policy also continues to tighten, even though interest rates are at the zero bound: the OECD has forecast that the cyclically adjusted fiscal deficit of the eurozone would shrink from a mere 1.4 per cent in 2013 to an even more austere 0.9 per cent in 2014. Huge divergences in competitiveness remain. These are more difficult to rectify when inflation is so low. This is forcing vulnerable countries into deflation, which raises the real level of their debt. Meanwhile, creditworthy core countries are black holes for demand: this year Germany’s current account surplus might be as big as 8 per cent of gross domestic product.
德拉吉在杰克逊霍尔研讨会上指出，他“确信”，今年6月宣布、目前已在实施的一揽子措施将会对“需求产生预期中的提振”。人们有理由对此感到怀疑。在截至2014年第二季度的6年里，名义需求仅增长2%。信贷渠道仍未恢复健康。财政政策也继续收紧，即便利率接近于零：经济合作组织(OECD)预测，2014年，经周期性调整后，欧元区财政赤字与GDP的比率将从2013年的1.4%进一步收缩至0.9%。欧元区各国竞争力依然存在显著差异。在通胀水平如此低的时期，这些问题更加难以解决。它正使那些容易遭受冲击的欧元区国家陷入通缩，提高了它们的实际负债水平。与此同时，信用程度高的欧元区核心国家成为需求“黑洞”：今年德国经常账户盈余可能高达GDP的8%。
Last week the ECB promised to purchase a broad portfolio of “simple and transparent asset-backed securities”. This, it hopes, will improve credit intermediation inside the eurozone. It also hopes that, through this and other programmes it has announced, it will be able to expand its balance sheet back to where it was two years ago. This makes sense. It was an error to let it shrink by about 10 per cent of eurozone GDP when other central banks, with considerably smaller problems than the eurozone’s to deal with, were avoiding premature withdrawal of such support (see chart). Moreover, the range of measures taken reinforce the ECB’s forward guidance. It has locked itself into ultra-accommodative monetary policies for years, as it should.
欧洲央行近期承诺购买“简单透明的资产支持证券(ABS)”的宽泛组合。它希望，这将改善欧元区内部的信用媒介。它还希望，通过该购债项目和其他已经宣布的项目，欧洲央行将能够将资产负债表的规模扩大至两年前的水平。这很明智。之前，在其他央行（它们的问题远小于欧元区要处理的问题）正避免过早退出此类支持之际（见图表），让欧洲央行资产负债表规模收缩相当于欧元区GDP的10%则是错误的。此外，欧洲央行出台的一系列措施强化了其前瞻性指引的效力。欧洲央行多年来坚持极度宽松的货币政策，它理应如此。
Yet, despite all these actions, the interlocking problems of the eurozone are unlikely to be resolved soon. Indeed even the ECB forecasts no more than feeble growth ahead. So, should the ECB do more? And what, above all, do other policy makers need to do in support?
然而，尽管采取了所有这些行动，欧元区错综复杂的问题也不太可能在短期内得到解决。实际上，即便是欧洲央行也预计未来最多只会温和增长。那么，欧洲央行应该出台更多举措吗？最重要的是，其他政策制定者需要提供什么样的支持？
The immediate question is whether the ECB should begin a programme of outright quantitative easing by buying government bonds, presumably in proportion to shares of member countries in eurozone GDP. In a blog post in July, senior officials of the International Monetary Fund argued that such QE would be effective. It would, they argued, reinforce the credibility of the ECB target and have important effects on the prices of financial assets, including bonds and equities, and probably on exchange rates, too.
一个迫在眉睫的问题是，欧洲央行是否应该购买政府债券——假设按照成员国占欧元区GDP的比重来购买——从而启动直接量化宽松政策？国际货币基金组织(IMF)的高官们在今年7月的一篇博文中指出，此类QE将是有效的。他们说，这将让欧洲央行的目标更加可信，并对包括债券和股票（很可能还有汇率）在内的金融资产价格产生重要影响。
I agree that it should be tried. The current situation is too dire for policy makers to eschew such a valuable instrument. But declines in bond yields have already been so dramatic that QE’s effects would no longer be as startling as they would have been two years ago. Furthermore, it is clear that the ECB would be taking on credit risk. It would be charged with monetary financing of governments. I believe it should go ahead. But the row between northern and southern Europe would surely be deafening.
我赞同欧洲央行应该尝试量化宽松。对政策制定者来说，当前局势极为严峻，因此不可避免地要动用这项非常有用的工具。但债券收益率已经大幅下降，QE将不再有两年前那么令人惊艳的效果。此外，欧洲央行显然将会承担信用风险。它将因为对政府进行货币融资而受到指责。我认为欧洲央行应该推出QE。但欧洲南北之间的争吵肯定会白热化。
What else is left? One possibility, suggested in Mr Draghi’s speech, is active use of fiscal policy. Ideally, there should be a mixture of higher public investments and lower taxes, particularly in countries with room for fiscal manoeuvre. The overall fiscal stance is too tight, with a deficit forecast by the OECD at just 2.5 per cent of GDP in a deep slump. In return, as Mr Draghi demands, countries need to embrace serious reforms, to raise supply potential – and, by stimulating investment, demand as well. A determination to use all instruments possible to raise demand, enhance supply potential and improve competitiveness, where necessary, is clearly where the eurozone must try to go. The new European Commission needs to take a stand for common sense and growth, instead of insisting on misery yet again.
此外还可以采取什么举措？从德拉吉的演讲中可以看出，一个可能是积极运用财政政策。理想的做法应该是增加公共投资和减税并行，尤其是在仍有财政调整空间的国家。财政立场总体而言过于紧缩——经合组织预计，在发生深度衰退的情况下，财政赤字与GDP的比率也将仅为2.5%。正如德拉吉所要求的那样，欧元区各国需要大力改革，以提高供给潜力，以及通过刺激投资来促进需求。德拉吉决心在必要时动用一切可用工具来扩大需求、增强供给潜力和提高竞争力，这显然正是欧元区必须努力做到的事情。新一届欧盟委员会(European Commission)需要维护常识和增长，而不是再次坚持吃苦政策。
This is not just a matter of economics. The capacity of the peoples of member states to tolerate high unemployment and deep slumps has been impressive. But it cannot be unlimited. If that is what the powers that be continue to advocate, the result will probably be a populist reaction. This, sadly, is what we are seeing in Scotland. It is what we are soon likely to see elsewhere. Who is sure Marine Le Pen, leader of the far right National Front party, will not be the next president of France? Who would follow Matteo Renzi, Italy’s prime minister, if he failed? Yes, these member states need to act. But they surely need support. Mr Draghi has shown the way. The eurozone must follow.
这不仅仅是经济层面的问题。欧元区成员国的民众对高失业率和深度衰退的忍受力令人印象深刻，但这种忍受力不可能是无止境的。如果大国持续倡导民众忍受，很可能就会引发民粹主义的反应。遗憾的是，这正是我们在苏格兰看到的结果。我们可能很快在其他地方也能看到这种结果。谁能保证极右翼政党国民阵线(National Front)党魁马琳•勒庞(Marine Le Pen)不会成为法国下一任总统？一旦意大利总理马泰奥•伦齐(Matteo Renzi)下台，谁会接替他？没错，这些欧元区成员国需要采取行动。但它们肯定需要支持。德拉吉已经指明了道路。欧元区应当遵循这一路线。
