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Finance & economics
财经版块
Brazil's currency woes
巴西货币困境
The market revolts
市场反抗
After a clumsy tax cut the already beleaguered real takes a battering.
实行不恰当的减税政策后，早已深陷困境的雷亚尔又遭重击。
The Brazilian real holds an ignominious title this year: it is the worst-performing major currency, down by more than 20% to a record low of almost 6.3 to the dollar.
今年巴西货币雷亚尔获得了一个不光彩的称号：它是表现最差的主要货币，下跌了20%以上，创下了1美元兑近6.3雷亚尔的历史新低。
The situation has grown even uglier over the past week, with the sell-off accelerating despite several interventions by the central bank.
过去一周，情况变得更加糟糕，尽管巴西央行进行了几次干预，但雷亚尔抛售仍在加速。
The slump is fuelled by panic about fiscal plans.
巴西货币贬值是由对财政计划的恐慌推动的。
In November the government of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the left-wing president, announced a long-awaited programme to curb spending, including earnings caps for public-sector workers.
11月，巴西左翼总统路易斯·伊纳西奥·卢拉·达席尔瓦政府宣布了一项期待已久的计划：遏制开支，包括对公共部门工作者施行收入上限。
At the same time, though, the finance minister, Fernando Haddad, promised extensive tax cuts for low- and middle-income workers.
但与此同时，财政部长费尔南多·哈达德承诺为中低收入工人大幅减税。
Investors took the announcement as proof of insufficient commitment to fiscal discipline.
投资者将公布的这一消息视为巴西未遵守财政纪律的证据。
Given Brazil’s budget deficit of almost 10% of GDP and gross debt of nearly 90% of GDP, jitters are understandable.
鉴于巴西的预算赤字几乎占GDP的10%，总债务接近GDP的90%，这种不安是可以理解的。
On December 17th the central bank sold over $3bn in currency reserves in a failed attempt to prop up the real.
12月17日，巴西央行出售了超过30亿美元的外汇储备，但未能成功支撑雷亚尔。
It has already raised interest rates three times since September, including a surprise increase of a full percentage point on December 11th.
自9月以来，巴西央行已经三次提高利率，包括在12月11日出人意料地提高了整整一个百分点。
Even as many emerging-market central banks have begun to cut rates, taking their cue from the Federal Reserve, investors expect more monetary tightening in Brazil over the coming year.
即使许多新兴市场央行已效仿美联储，开始降息，但投资者预计巴西在未来一年将继续收紧货币。
The country’s two-year government bonds now yield more than 15%, up from just under 10% at the end of 2023.
巴西两年期政府债券的收益率目前超过15%，而在2023年底时仅略低于10%。
But monetary hawkishness is not cutting the mustard.
但货币鹰派政策并未达到预期效果。
Financial markets are clamouring for a fiscal u-turn, which the government is reluctant to offer.
金融市场强烈要求政府在财政政策上180度大转弯，但政府并不愿意这样做。
“We know exactly how we got here, so we know how to get out of here. We need to walk backwards,” says Alberto Ramos, head of economic research for Latin America at Goldman Sachs, a bank.
“我们很清楚我们是如何走到这一步的，所以我们也很清楚要如何走出去。我们需要倒退着走，”高盛银行拉丁美洲经济研究部主管阿尔贝托·拉莫斯表示，
“The more you wait, the higher the risk that things will be done the hard way, and the market will force the correction.
“等的时间越长，事情变得棘手的风险就越高，那时市场将倒逼我们调整政策。
The symptoms of a crisis are there.”
现在存在着发生危机的症状。”
