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黑暗情况
Why Black Friday sales grow more annoying every year.
为什么黑色星期五促销变得一年比一年讨厌。
When is Black Friday? The obvious answer is a literal one.
黑色星期五是什么时候？显而易见的答案是字面上的那个黑色星期五。
It is the day after Thanksgiving, an American holiday when families gather to gorge on turkey and pumpkin pie, which this year falls on November 29th.
也就是感恩节后的一天，感恩节是家人团聚、大吃火鸡和南瓜派的美国节日，今年的感恩节是11月29日。（注：感恩节的每年11月的第四个星期四。）
Yet Black Friday is not simply a date, it is also an idea.
但黑色星期五不仅仅是一个日期，也是一个概念。
The day traditionally marked the beginning of the festive shopping season, when people would start to stock up on Christmas presents.
在过去，这一天标志着节日购物季的开始，人们会开始储备圣诞礼物。
Today, it is the time of year during which everything goes on sale.
在如今，这一天是一年中所有东西都在打折促销的日子。
And pinpointing when this begins is a much more difficult endeavour.
要准确指出这一天始于何时是一项困难得多的任务。
In a bid to find an answer your columnist searched her inbox for the earliest Black Friday discount offered by a retailer.
为了找到答案，笔者在她的收件箱中搜索了零售商提供的最早的黑色星期五折扣邮件。
The missive came in early October.
这封邮件在10月初就发来了。
To understand this baffling development, consider the underlying economics.
要理解黑色星期五的这种令人困惑的发展，需要考虑底层经济逻辑。
American retail is a fiercely competitive market—but that is different from being a “perfectly” competitive market.
美国零售业是一个竞争激烈的市场，但与“完全”竞争的市场不同。
Léon Walras, a brilliant 19th-century French economist, defined such a market as existing when large numbers of buyers and sellers meet, with perfect information, in order to exchange homogeneous products.
莱昂·瓦尔拉斯是一位杰出的19世纪法国经济学家，他将完全竞争市场定义为大量的买家和卖家在信息充分的情况下会面，以交换同质产品。
In a perfect market no single seller has the power to set prices across the board, and there are no barriers to entry for new arrivals.
在完全竞争市场中，没有哪一个卖家有能力给所有商品定价，而且新来者也没有进入市场的壁垒。
Although real life is almost never like this, it comes close in markets for standardised commodities, such as a bushel of a certain grade of wheat.
虽然现实生活几乎从来不是这样，但标准化商品市场却很接近完全竞争市场，比如一蒲式耳某种等级的小麦就是标准化商品。
At the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, there is pretty perfect information about what is being bought and sold.
在芝加哥商业交易所，对于正在买卖的东西有相当充分的信息。
There are lots of buyers and sellers, who all gather in the same place at the same time.
那里有很多买家和卖家，他们都在同一时间聚集在同一个地方。
There are lots of transactions.
那里有很多交易。
And sellers compete exclusively on price, which should equate to the marginal cost of producing an extra bushel.
而且卖家之间仅仅基于价格进行竞争，价格应该等同于再多生产一蒲式耳小麦的边际成本。（注：边际成本表示每增加一单位产量所带来的新增成本，边际成本等于商品单价时，说明市场供需达到均衡。）
Needless to say, none of them offer Black Friday deals.
不用说，这些卖家都没有提供黑色星期五的优惠。
The markets for toaster ovens or slippers do not quite operate in the same manner.
但烤面包机或拖鞋的市场运作方式与这种市场不完全相同。
For a start, goods are differentiated by design and quality.
首先，商品是通过设计和质量来区分的。
Information is far from perfect, hence the popularity of recommendation services such as The Strategist and Wirecutter, which test and rank products.
信息也远非充分，因此像“策略家”和“铁丝剪”这样的商品推荐服务就很受欢迎，这两个网站会测评产品并进行排名。
Retailers compete on price, of course, but, critically, they also compete on timing.
零售商当然会在价格上竞争，但关键是他们也会在时间上竞争。
Imagine a customer who is looking to purchase a blender.
想象一下，有一位顾客正在计划购买一台搅拌机。
Bob is torn between the “top pick” on Wirecutter—the Vitamix 5200, a pricey $450 model—and a cheaper runner-up option, the Cleanblend Blender, which is sold for around $170.
鲍勃在纠结是买铁丝剪网站推荐的“首选”（售价450美元的高端机型维他密斯5200），还是买更便宜的亚军选项：售价约170美元的Cleanblend搅拌机。
He prefers the Vitamix, and is willing to pay perhaps $200 more for it.
他更喜欢维他密斯，并且愿意为它多付大约200美元。
Then, in late October, he receives an email from a small retailer offering the Cleanblend for just $120.
然后在10月下旬，他收到了一封来自一家小型零售商的电子邮件，Cleanblend售价仅为120美元。
He knows the Vitamix will go on sale soon, but does not know how big the discount will be, and perhaps the other retailer will have sold out of Cleanblends by then.
他知道维他密斯搅拌机很快就会打折，但不知道折扣会有多大，而且也许到那时另一家零售商的Cleanblend就已经卖完了。
He decides to make a purchase.
他决定购买Cleanblend。
Two weeks later, while whizzing up a morning smoothie in his Cleanblend, he sees the Vitamix has been discounted to just $300, and feels a pang of regret.
两周后，当他在早晨用Cleanblend搅拌奶昔时，看到维他密斯已经打折到仅300美元，于是一阵懊悔袭上心头。
