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High-frequency data present a similarly muddled picture. Global mobility measures are still edging up, according to a recent report by JPMorgan Chase, a bank, suggesting continued growth in GDP. Yet Britain, the first big, rich country to be hit hard by the Delta variant, is telling a different story. Our “economic-activity index” for the country, using Google data on visits to workplaces, transit stations and sites of retail and recreation, has dropped by about 5% since peaking in June (and there is little sign of greater mobility from July 19th onwards, when England lifted all domestic covid-19 restrictions). The British story seems likely to set a trend to a degree. In America surveys suggest that the uptick in coronavirus infections linked to the Delta variant has been accompanied by a pickup in people’s reported fear of the virus.
高频数据也呈现出相似的混杂局面。根据摩根大通银行最近的一份报告，全球流动性指标仍在缓慢上升，这表明GDP仍在持续增长。然而，作为第一个遭受德尔塔变异毒株重创的富裕大国，英国的情况却截然不同。根据谷歌关于前往工作场所、公交站点和零售及娱乐地点的数据，我们国家的“经济活动指数”自6月份见顶以来已经下降了约5%（自7月19日英格兰解除地区内所有的新冠限制措施后，流动性几乎没有增加）。在某种程度上，英国的经历似乎奠定了一种趋势。在美国，调查显示，随着与德尔塔变异毒株有关的冠状病毒感染的增加，人们对该病毒的恐惧也有所增加。
The hardest sort of data—releases from official statistical agencies—do not yet reflect the impact of rising covid-19 infections. But they also give contradictory signals. Measures of economic “surprise” in activity indicators (ie, a comparison of the published numbers with economists’ forecasts) still look fairly positive, especially in Europe. Housebuilding in America is proving more vigorous than almost anyone expected; Britain’s government is borrowing less than economic forecasters thought it would, a sign of a decent recovery in tax receipts. But there have also been disappointments. In America, for instance, the University of Michigan’s index of consumer sentiment declined in July, against expectations of an increase.
官方统计机构发布的最硬的数据还没有反映出新冠肺炎感染人数上升所产生的影响。但它们也释放了相互矛盾的信号。经济活动指标中的“意外”指标（即公布的数据与经济学家的预测相比较）看起来仍然相当乐观，特别是在欧洲。事实证明，美国的住房建设几乎比所有人预期的都要活跃；英国政府的借款比经济预测者预期的要少，说明税收收入恢复得相当不错。但也有令人失望的地方。例如，在美国，7月份，密歇根大学的消费者信心指数有所下降，与预期的上升恰恰相反。
Owing in part to the movements in activity indicators, economists’ revisions to their expectations of GDP growth—our fourth measure—also send mixed messages. Analysts at JPMorgan reckon that American output will rise at an annual rate of 4.3% in July, which is lower than what they had forecast a week ago (yet represents an acceleration compared with the month of June). Economists at Goldman Sachs, another bank, see downside risks to the global economy but still expect a robust recovery in 2021.
部分归因于经济活动指标的变动，经济学家们对GDP增长预期(我们的第四大指标)的修正也给出了复杂的信息。摩根大通的分析师认为，7月份美国的产出将以4.3%的年率增长，这比他们一周前预测的数字要低（但与6月份相比，增长速度有所加快）。另一家银行高盛(Goldman Sachs)的经济学家认为，全球经济存在下行风险，但仍预计2021年将出现强劲复苏。
Bring all this together and the picture is one of increasing uncertainty about whether or not the global economic recovery carries on at a rapid clip. In the rich world consumers are still sitting on piles of hoarded savings, and workers are in high demand. Yet the biggest rebound in activity, flattered by a favourable comparison with last year’s lockdown-induced depths and, in America, generous stimulus cheques, has passed. In its place are niggling doubts about whether the recovery can be sustained. Governments’ emergency stimulus programmes are coming to an end. There are growing fears that, as the Delta variant of the coronavirus spreads, the resurgence in cases could impinge on economic growth, especially in places with large unvaccinated populations.
综上所述，全球经济能否快速复苏的不确定性越来越大。在发达国家，消费者仍然坐拥大量储蓄，对工人的需求也很高。然而，与去年因封锁而导致的深度衰退和美国慷慨的经济刺激计划相比，我们所谓的经济活动的最大反弹已经成为过去。取而代之的是对经济复苏能否持续的质疑。各国政府的紧急刺激计划已接近尾声。人们越来越担心，随着冠状病毒变异毒株德尔塔的传播，病例的反弹可能会影响经济增长，尤其是在有众多未接种疫苗人群的地区。
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