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Few people would wish to trade places with Giuseppe Conte, Italy's prime minister.
没什么人愿意和意大利总理朱塞佩·孔特交换位置。
As covid-19 spread he put the entire country into lockdown for the first time since the second world war.
随着covid-19的传播，整个国家自二战以来第一次进入了禁闭状态。
Now he must try to contain the economic effects. But he is finding that tackling them also depends on lenders and Europe's institutions.
现在他必须设法控制经济影响。但他发现，解决这些问题也依赖于放贷机构和欧洲机构。
The immediate prognosis is a severe contraction. Economists at JPMorgan Chase, a bank,
目前的形势预报是严重收缩。摩根大通银行的经济学家预测
expect GDP to fall at an annualised rate of 7.5% in the first quarter of the year.
按年率计算，今年第一季度的GDP将下降7.5%。
The hope at least is that recovery is rapid.
至少希望经济能够得到迅速的复苏。
To that end, Mr Conte said on March 11th that he would set aside 25bn euro ($28bn, or 1.4% of GDP)
为此，孔特在3月11日表示，他将拨出250亿欧元（280亿美元，占GDP1.4 %）
in order to cushion the epidemic's economic effects.
以缓冲流行病的经济影响。
The precise measures were yet to be agreed as The Economist went to press,
在刊付印之际，具体的措施尚未达成一致，
but were expected to include compensation for companies that lose revenues and workers who are laid off.
但预计将包括对失去营业收入的公司和下岗工人的补偿。
Ministers have also promised to help banks suspend repayments on mortgages and small-business loans for a year.
部长们还承诺帮助银行在一年内暂停偿还抵押贷款和小企业贷款。
As people fall ill and quarantines are imposed, businesses and households face abrupt disruptions to their income.
生病的人被强制隔离，企业和家庭的收入会突然中断。
That means quick fixes are in high demand. Unlike public-spending measures,
这意味着对快速解决问题方法的需求很高。与公共支出措施不同，
bank forbearance does not need legislation, and so can take immediate effect.
银行宽限不需要立法，因此可以立即生效。
But Italy's lenders, which already have higher non-performing loan ratios than the euro-area average,
但意大利的放贷机构（这些机构的不良贷款率已经高于欧元区平均水平）警告称，
warn that they cannot cope with the loss in interest income unless the government guarantees unpaid loans,
除非政府为未偿还贷款提供担保，否则他们无法应对利息收入的损失，
so that they do not have to hold more provisions.
这样他们就不必持有更多准备金。
In any case, leniency from lenders will help some of those most disrupted by the epidemic, but not all.
无论如何，放贷机构的宽容会帮助一些受疫情影响最严重的人，但不是所有人。
Small firms, which are more likely to rely on bank finance, will benefit. But only 15% of Italian households have mortgages.
更倾向于依靠银行融资的小企业将从中受益。但是只有15%的意大利家庭有房屋贷款。
The neediest, says Tito Boeri, a former head of the social-security administration, cannot take out loans in the first place.
社会保障署前署长表示，最需要帮助的人一开始就无法获得贷款。
More helpful would be to extend unemployment benefit to cover the self-employed, who make up a fifth of the workforce,
更帮助的做法是将失业救济金扩大到占劳动力五分之一的个体经营者
and temporary workers whose contracts are due to expire. For as long as the outbreak lasts,
和合同即将到期的临时工。只要疫情持续，
benefits will need to be unconditional and generous, notes Francesco Giavazzi of Bocconi University.
福利就必须是无条件且慷慨的，博科尼大学的弗朗切斯科·贾瓦齐说到。
If they are too stingy, people will start hoarding cash, fearing that the government could withdraw its support.
如果过于吝啬，人们就会开始囤积现金，担心政府可能会撤回对他们的支持。
译文由可可原创，仅供学习交流使用，未经许可请勿转载。
