Third, we need to accelerate the creation of a new development dynamic.
第三个问题:加快构建新发展格局
The Recommendations for Formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social Development and Long-Range Objectives through the Year 2035 defined the creation of a new development dynamic that focuses on domestic flow and features positive interplay between domestic flow and international engagement as a major strategic task that concerned China's overall development interests. This task must be correctly understood and actively promoted according to the overall situation.
加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,是“十四五”规划《建议》提出的一项关系我国发展全局的重大战略任务,需要从全局高度准确把握和积极推进。
In recent years, we have witnessed a backlash against economic globalization and profound adjustments to the circulation patterns in the international economy. The Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated the trend of deglobalization, and many countries have now become more inward-looking. When the epidemic was prevalent, I visited several provinces around the country to gain an in-depth understanding of the situation on epidemic containment and investigate the problems that had emerged in reopening the economy. During my visit to Zhejiang Province, I found that global industrial and supply chains had been partially disrupted due to the pandemic. This had directly impacted flows in the domestic economy. Many companies were forced to suspend operations because they could not bring in the raw materials and personnel they needed or send their goods overseas. I realized just how much things had changed; the environments and conditions that had facilitated largescale imports and exports were no longer in place. Given these new circumstances, we needed to come up with new thinking to steer development. Accordingly, in April last year, I proposed that we create a new development dynamic that focused on domestic flow and featured positive interplay between domestic flow and international engagement. At the Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee in October 2020, we made comprehensive arrangements for this task. The establishment of the new development dynamic is a strategic and proactive step for taking the initiative in development, a major historic mission that must be fulfilled in the new development stage, and an important measure for applying the new development philosophy.
近年来,经济全球化遭遇逆流,国际经济循环格局发生深度调整。新冠肺炎疫情也加剧了逆全球化趋势,各国内顾倾向上升。新冠肺炎疫情期间,我到几个省进行调查研究,深入了解抗疫情况,调研复工复产中出现的问题。我在浙江考察时发现,在疫情冲击下全球产业链供应链发生局部断裂,直接影响到我国国内经济循环。当地不少企业需要的国外原材料进不来、海外人员来不了、货物出不去,不得不停工停产。我感觉到,现在的形势已经很不一样了,大进大出的环境条件已经变化,必须根据新的形势提出引领发展的新思路。所以,去年4月,我就提出要建立以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局,党的十九届五中全会对构建新发展格局作出全面部署。这是把握未来发展主动权的战略性布局和先手棋,是新发展阶段要着力推动完成的重大历史任务,也是贯彻新发展理念的重大举措。
As a socialist country with a large population and a vast market, China is certain to encounter various pressures and stern challenges in the process of modernization, the likes of which no other country will have ever experienced. In 1936, Mao Zedong made a remark that still holds true for us even today. He said, "No matter how complicated, grave, and harsh the circumstances, what a military leader needs most of all is the ability to function independently in organizing and employing the forces under his command. He may often be forced into a passive position by the enemy, but the important thing is to regain the initiative quickly. Failure to do so spells defeat. The initiative is not something imaginary but is concrete and material." If we can, by dint of our own efforts, ensure unimpeded domestic flow to effectively shield ourselves from harm, we will have the vigor and vitality to not only survive but thrive amid volatile international situations, making it impossible for anyone to keep us down or to back us into a corner. We must speed up our efforts to create a new development dynamic, so that no matter the challenges or difficulties we encounter, whether anticipated or not, we will be better able to survive, compete, and maintain sustainable development. This way, we can ensure the course of national rejuvenation is never delayed or interrupted.
我国作为一个人口众多和超大市场规模的社会主义国家,在迈向现代化的历史进程中,必然要承受其他国家都不曾遇到的各种压力和严峻挑战。毛泽东同志1936年的一段话,至今都对我们有启示意义。他说:“无论处于怎样复杂、严重、惨苦的环境,军事指导者首先需要的是独立自主地组织和使用自己的力量。被敌逼迫到被动地位的事是常有的,重要的是要迅速地恢复主动地位。如果不能恢复到这种地位,下文就是失败。主动地位不是空想的,而是具体的,物质的。”我们只有立足自身,把国内大循环畅通起来,努力炼就百毒不侵、金刚不坏之身,才能任由国际风云变幻,始终充满朝气生存和发展下去,没有任何人能打倒我们、卡死我们!加快构建新发展格局,就是要在各种可以预见和难以预见的狂风暴雨、惊涛骇浪中,增强我们的生存力、竞争力、发展力、持续力,确保中华民族伟大复兴进程不被迟滞甚至中断。
In practice, there are some misunderstandings that we need to guard against. First, some people tend to only speak about the first half, or the domestic flow element as the main factor, of the new development dynamic, and call for China to sharply reverse its opening to the outside world. Second, some others speak only of the latter half, or the positive interplay between domestic flow and international engagement, and still subscribe to the old development dynamic of large-scale imports and exports with two ends of the economic process – markets and resources – being located abroad, despite the changes to the international landscape. Third, acting in one's own way and only focusing on one's own sphere of interest is also a mistake. Some are neglecting the task of building a unified national market and promoting overall domestic flow, preferring instead to focus on their own local or regional market. Fourth, some have equated unimpeded economic flow with smooth logistics and are focused only on this basic level of circulation. Fifth, in resolving technological bottlenecks, some people want to do everything themselves, which result in needless replication, or they carry out extravagant projects that ultimately fail because they don't take account of reality and the industrial base. Sixth, in working to expand domestic demand and boost the domestic market, some people have begun blindly handing out loans for investment and over-stimulating consumption, or even reverting back to energy-intensive, high-emissions projects. Seventh, some are concentrating on demand-side management at the expense of supply-side structural reform, making it impossible to achieve a higher-level, dynamic equilibrium at which supply boosts demand. Eighth, some think that the new development dynamic is a matter for the economic and technology departments and has little to do with themselves. All of these understandings are incomplete or even erroneous; we must guard against them and rectify them should they arise.
在实践中,我们要注意防范一些认识误区:一是只讲前半句,片面强调“以国内大循环为主”,主张在对外开放上进行大幅度收缩;二是只讲后半句,片面强调“国内国际双循环”,不顾国际格局和形势变化,固守“两头在外、大进大出”的旧思路;三是各自为政、画地为牢,不关心建设全国统一的大市场、畅通全国大循环,只考虑建设本地区本区域小市场、搞自己的小循环;四是认为畅通经济循环就是畅通物流,搞低层次物流循环;五是一讲解决“卡脖子”技术难题,什么都自己干、搞重复建设,专盯“高大上”项目,不顾客观实际和产业基础,结果成了烂尾项目;六是讲扩大内需、形成国内大市场,又开始搞盲目借贷扩大投资、过度刺激消费,甚至又去大搞高能耗、高排放的项目;七是不重视供给侧结构性改革,只注重需求侧管理,无法形成供给创造需求的更高水平动态平衡;八是认为这只是经济科技部门的事,同自己部门关系不大,等等。这些认识都是片面的甚至是错误的,必须加以防范和纠正。
The key to building a new development dynamic is to ensure unimpeded economic flow, just the same as a healthy person needs to keep the blood vessels circulating freely to maintain a good balance of vital energy and blood. Economic activity requires the integration of various production factors at the stages of production, allocation, distribution, and consumption in order to realize a circular flow. Under normal circumstances, smooth economic flow will lead to increased material products, greater social wealth, improved wellbeing among the people, and enhanced national strength, giving rise to an upward spiral of development. When obstructions and breakages emerge, economic flow is disrupted. From a macroeconomic perspective, the economic growth rate drops, unemployment rises, risks build up, and the balance of payments falls into disequilibrium. At the microeconomic level, problems such as overcapacity, declining enterprise returns, and falling personal incomes arise.
构建新发展格局的关键在于经济循环的畅通无阻,就像人们讲的要调理好统摄全身阴阳气血的任督二脉。经济活动需要各种生产要素的组合在生产、分配、流通、消费各环节有机衔接,从而实现循环流转。在正常情况下,如果经济循环顺畅,物质产品会增加,社会财富会积聚,人民福祉会增进,国家实力会增强,从而形成一个螺旋式上升的发展过程。如果经济循环过程中出现堵点、断点,循环就会受阻,在宏观上就会表现为增长速度下降、失业增加、风险积累、国际收支失衡等情况,在微观上就会表现为产能过剩、企业效益下降、居民收入下降等问题。