评论
打印
Outlook
前景
The good news is that, after six years of disappointing growth, the world economy is gaining momentum as a cyclical recovery holds out the promise of more jobs, higher incomes, and greater prosperity going forward.
眼下的好消息是，经过六年令人失望的增长后，世界经济势头正在加强，周期性复苏带来了今后就业机会增加、收入水平上升、繁荣程度提高的希望。
But just as we see this momentum unfolding, we also see – at least in some advanced economies – doubts about the benefits of economic integration, about the very "architecture" that has underpinned the world economy for more than seven decades.
但是，随着世界经济增长势头加强，我们也看到，至少在某些发达经济体，存在着对经济一体化的惠益的怀疑，存在着对七十多年来支撑世界经济的"建筑"本身的怀疑。
These issues will be on the minds of finance ministers and central bankers from the IMF's 189 member countries when they meet in Washington next week for our Spring Meetings.
当基金组织189个成员国的财政部长和央行行长下周齐聚华盛顿出席我们的春季会议时，这些问题将成为他们关注的焦点。
They will assess the state of the global economy and, as usual, we will release our World Economic Outlook a few days before the meeting. Today, I will touch on some broad trends.
他们将对全球经济状况作出评估，而我们也将照例在会议前几天发布《世界经济展望》。今天，我将谈一谈若干基本趋势。
For advanced economies, the outlook has improved with stronger manufacturing activity. This upswing is broad-based across countries – including in Europe – although some countries here still face high debt and weaknesses in some banks.
发达经济体前景向好，原因在于制造业活动增强。经济前景的改善在各国（包括欧洲国家）不乏广泛的基础，尽管一些国家仍然面临债务高企和部分银行薄弱的问题。
The prospects for emerging and developing economies also bode well for global growth. These countries have driven the global recovery in recent years, and they will continue to contribute more than three-quarters of global GDP growth in 2017.
新兴和发展中经济体的前景也有利于全球增长。这些国家最近几年推动了全球复苏，2017年它们将继续占全球GDP增长的四分之三以上。
Meanwhile, higher commodity prices have brought relief to many low-income countries. However, these economies still face difficult challenges, including revenue levels that are projected to stay well below the boom years.
同时，大宗商品价格的上涨缓解了许多低收入国家的困难状况。然而，这些经济体仍旧面临着诸多严峻挑战，比如财政收入预计将远远低于经济快速增长年份的水平。
Putting all this together, we see a global economy that has a spring in its step – benefiting from sound policy choices in many countries in recent years.
综合上述各方面因素可以看出，全球经济增长的脚步充满活力，这得益于许多国家近年来实施的稳健政策。
Risks
风险
At the same time, there are clear downside risks: political uncertainty, including in Europe; the sword of protectionism hanging over global trade; and tighter global financial conditions that could trigger disruptive capital outflows from emerging and developing economies.
然而，目前显然也存在着一些下行风险：政治上的不确定性，包括在欧洲；全球贸易受到保护主义威胁；以及全球金融环境趋紧，这可能会导致新兴和发展中经济体出现破坏性的资本外流。
And underneath those short-term issues lies a weak productivity trend that continues to be a severe drag on strong and inclusive growth – largely because of population aging, the slowdown in trade, and weak private investment since the 2008 financial crisis.
这些短期问题的根源在于生产率增长疲软，这一趋势继续对强有力的包容性增长造成严重阻碍——很大程度上是因为自2008年金融危机以来出现的人口老龄化、 贸易增长放缓以及私人投资疲弱等问题。
We estimate that, if productivity growth had followed its pre-2008 crisis trend, overall GDP in advanced economies would be about 5 percent higher today. That would be the equivalent of adding a country with an output larger than Germany to the global economy.
我们估计，如果生产率按照2008年危机前的趋势增长，那么发达经济体的总体GDP将比目前的水平大约高出5%。相当于全球经济中又增加了一个产出大于德国的国家。
Policies
政策
This suggests that there is no room for complacency when it comes to economic policies.
这表明，就经济政策而言，我们没有理由沾沾自喜。
We need to build on the policies that have delivered so much for the world. And at the same time, we must avoid policy missteps – or as I have described them, "self-inflicted wounds."
我们需要利用那些已经对世界经济发挥了重大作用的各项政策。与此同时，我们必须避免种种政策失误，也就是我所说的那些"自讨苦吃"的行为。
How do we do this? I see three dimensions of economic policies:
我们该怎么做？我认为应当从经济政策的三个方面入手：
Supporting growth, with an emphasis on productivity;
支持增长，强调生产率；
Sharing the benefits more equitably; and
更加公平地分享收益；
Cooperating across borders through a multilateral framework that has served the world well.
通过已经有效服务于世界的多边框架，开展跨境合作。
