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Just because globalization is largely spontaneous propelled by better communications and transportation—does not mean that it is inevitable or completely irreversible. Governments can, in subtle and not-so-subtle ways, shield local industries and workers against imports or discriminate against foreign investors. If only a few countries do, their actions will not matter much. Global capital and trade will go where they are most welcome and productive. Indeed, it is precisely this logic that has persuaded so many countries to accept globalization. If they don't, someone else will. Judged by their behavior, most governments believe they have more to gain than to lose.
正是因为更完善的通信和交通设施，全球化在很大程度上得以自然而然地受到推动——但这不意味着全球化不可避免或不可逆转。政府可以用微妙的或不那么微妙的方式庇护地方工业和工人免受进口的冲击，或是排斥外国投资者。如果只是少数国家这样做，这种行为并不会带来多大的影响。全球资本和贸易会转向它们最受欢迎和最有产出的地方。的确，也正是这种逻辑说服了众多国家接受全球化。如果它们不接受，就会有别的国家接受。从其行为来看，大部分政府相信，他们获得的利益大于损失。
But this does not mean that a powerful popular backlash, with unpredictable consequences, is not possible. In a global recession, too many sellers will be chasing too few buyers. A plausible presumption is that practical politicians would try to protect their constituents from global gluts. If too many countries did, globalization could implode.
但是这并不意味着民众就不会对全球化表示强烈的反对，并导致难以预料的后果。在全球性经济衰退的形势下，过多的卖家将会追逐过少的买家。一个合情合理的假设就是务实的政客们将会尽力保护自己的选民免受全球性供过于求的侵袭。如果太多的国家这样做，全球化将可能会从内部瓦解。
It's a scary prospect. Economic interdependence cuts both ways. Under favorable conditions, it helps everyone; under unfavorable conditions, it hurts everyone: Globalization's promise may exceed its peril—but the peril is still real. Both await the new century. One of the great dramas will be to see which prevails.
这是一种可怕的前景。经济上的相互依赖利弊兼而有之。在有利情况下，它使各方受惠，在不利情况下，对各方都构成伤害。全球化的光明前景也许会超越它的危险性——但这种危险性真实存在。利弊都在等待新世纪的到来。到底哪一方会胜出，将会是新世纪极富戏剧性的重要事件之一。
