评论
打印
A worldwide food crisis
会有全球粮食危机吗？
Historically, only local governments worried about a widespread food crisis, but today, a sharp spike in food prices and the resulting food crisis can quickly become a worldwide phenomenon. Recent droughts along the equator, and in Russia and Ukraine - two countries which account for one-fourth of world wheat exports - caused wheat prices to surge. Many worry the tight supply will cause inflationary prices. They fear the skyrocketing grain costs in 2007, which harshly struck the world's poor and led to food riots, will recur.
在历史上，只有地方政府才会担心大范围的粮食危机，而如今，粮食价格的急剧上涨及由此导致的粮食危机会很快成为一种全球现象。最近发生在赤道沿线、俄罗斯及乌克兰的干旱使小麦价格不断飆升——俄罗斯和乌克兰两国小麦出口总量占世界出口总量的四分之一。许多人担心小麦供应短缺会引发其价格膨胀，他们害怕 2007 年使世界穷人遭受重创并引发食品骚乱的飞涨的粮食价格会再次出现。
Is their fear grounded? Consultancy firms measuring the status of commodities like wheat don't think so. Stocks of wheat are at sufficiently high levels, and harvest turnout from other big producers like the US is expected to stay strong. So unlike in 2007, the supply situation isn't desperate, meaning wheat prices should eventually calm down and level off.
他们的担心有根据吗？负责对像小麦这样的商品现状进行评估的咨询公司并不这样认为。目前小麦的储备非常充足，并且，重要农业生产国如美国等的农作物生产也有望十分强劲。所以，与 2007 年不同，现在粮食供应状况并不那样令人绝望，这也意味着小麦价格最终会恢复正常并平稳下来。
However, this rosy picture provides only temporary security. The bigger picture discloses a reality not so optimistic. Though current prices aren't as sky-high as in the panicked market of 2007, they're still at higher levels than before and are likely to stay that way. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development sees the average prices of products classified as essential such as grains, vegetable oils, and dairy products rising for the next decade.
但是，这一美好的画面只能带来短暂的安心。更大的画面所揭示的现实不容乐观。虽然目前粮食价格没有达到 2007 年引起恐慌的市场上的那种天价，但和以前相比，价格仍然居高不下，而且很有可能维持这样。经济合作与发展组织认为，谷物、植物油和奶制品这些基本食品的平均价格在未来十年都将持续上涨。
It doesn't take an oracle to foretell that the fight to feed the world will be a huge challenge facing the global economy over the next 20 years. Food production is suffering from decades of neglect of agriculture, a period when the sector was starved of the resources and technology it needed to keep up with rising world demand. Though more and more people are intrigued by the issue and there is a growing global consensus about the need for reform in farming, we're really only at the beginning of a long, expensive, process of repairing world agricultural practices. That means food prices will stay high over the next several years, as will the risk of dangerous price fluctuations like the current one with wheat.
未来 20 年，让世界上所有人都吃饱饭将是全球经济所面临的巨大挑战，这一点很明确，不需要通过行家来预言。由于过去几十年对农业的疏忽，粮食生产受到影响，而这几十年正是农业这一行业急需得到资源和技术支持以满足日益增长的世界需求的重要时期。虽然现在越来越多的人对这一问题表示出兴趣，对农业耕作进行改革的需要也获得全球越来越广泛的认同，但事实上，在修复全球农业作业这样一项耗时长、代价高的工作中，我们还只处于起步阶段。这也意味着，粮食价格在未来几年会居高不下，正如目前小麦价格波动所带来的风险也会居高不下一样。
