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I asked her how powerful she thought life2vec’s mortality predictions are and she said, quote, “I would not quit my job and go to the Bahamas based on this thing.”
我问她，她认为life2vec的死亡预测有多强大，她回答说：“我不会因为这件事辞掉工作去巴哈马。”
Haha, Ok, that’s kind of a burn?
哈哈，好吧，这算是一种不满吧?
It’s more of a statement on how hard it is to predict something like death.
这更像是在说明预测死亡之类的事情是多么困难。
And to assess the accuracy of something so new–there’s nothing obvious to compare life2vec to.
要评估如此新的工具的准确性--没有什么明显的工具可以与life2vec进行比较。
You can’t just see how much better it is than flipping a coin or something?
看不出这个工具的准确性比抛硬币之类事情好多少?
Nope! Data and statistics are wonky, particularly around death which is a rare event, if you think about it.
看不出! 数据和统计不可靠，特别是死亡方面的数据。如果你仔细想想，死亡是一个罕见事件。
It only happens once in a person’s life and young people don’t tend to die very often.
死亡在人的一生中只发生一次，年轻人往往不会经常死亡。
In fact, if you were to just assume that everyone between like 25-50 in a population was going to live in a given year, you’d already be a really accurate death oracle. You’d be right most of the time.
事实上，如果假设人口中25-50岁之间的每个人都会在某一年活下来，那么这就已经是一个非常准确的死亡预测了。大多数情况下你预测的都是对的。
Ah, Ok, so you’ve gotta figure out what it means to actually be good at predicting death, and then compare life2vec to that.
啊，好，你得弄清楚擅长预测死亡到底是怎么回事，然后再将其与life2vec进行比较。
Totally! And that’s kind of a question mark.
完全认同! 这是一个问题。
So what could you use this for, if not to tell you when it’s time to go permanent vacation mode?
如果这个工具无法告诉你什么时候会进入永久休假模式，你还能用它做什么?
If we don’t really know how good it is, what’s the point?
如果我们不知道这个工具有多好，那还有什么意义呢?
There are lots of potential uses–down the road, with more testing.
这个工具拥有很多潜在的用途。在未来，需要进行更多的测试。
For one, the model could help us understand disease prognosis and health outcomes.
首先，这个模型可以帮助我们了解疾病预后情况和健康结果。
And from a sociology angle, you can use life2vec to tease out hidden societal biases, like unexpected links between age or country of origin and professional advancement.
从社会学的角度来看，可以使用life2vec挑出隐藏的社会偏见，比如年龄、原籍国与职业发展之间意想不到的联系。
All of that sounds theoretically cool, but I’m stuck on this idea that–actually– this will be used in a bad and scary way.
从理论上讲，所有这些用途听起来都很好，但我坚持认为，就实际情况而言，这个工具会被用在一个邪恶可怕的地方。
Like, Minority Report-style punishing crimes before they happen, sort of stuff.
就像《少数派报告》里那样，在犯罪发生前就可以进行惩罚。
It’s a valid concern!
这是一个合理的担忧!
Thank you for validating.
谢谢你的认同。
Of course. There is definitely an ethical risk with a tool like this.
当然, 使用这样的工具肯定有道德风险。
The study authors were careful to note all the ways that Danish privacy and anti-discrimination laws restrict how life2vec can be used.
这项研究的作者谨慎地指出，丹麦的隐私和反歧视法限制了life2vec的使用方式。
It’s not just going to be a freely available tool.
life2vec不仅仅是一个免费可获取的工具。
Academic and government researchers will have to apply to use it for specified purposes and then have a responsibility to protect peoples’ data.
学者和政府研究人员必须提出申请，将其用于特定目的，对保护丹麦人的数据负责，才可以使用这个工具。
Cool, Ok–that’s better than nothing I guess.
好，我想这总比什么都没有好。
Yeah, if it makes you feel any better– the study author I spoke with, Sune Lehmann, told me that he worked on this research because he trusts the Danish government, but in the U.S.--or another country without a comprehensive data privacy law– he wouldn’t have been so comfortable.
是的，研究论文作者苏恩·莱曼告诉我，他从事这项研究是因为他信任丹麦政府，但在美国或其他没有全面数据隐私法的国家，他就不会这么放心了，也许这能让你感觉好一点。
