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China should aim for an economic expansion of "around 5 percent" for 2024, as that will help boost confidence and revive its recovery momentum, Bloomberg Economics' chief economist Tom Orlik said.
彭博经济研究首席经济学家欧乐鹰（Tom Orlik）在接受《中国日报》独家采访时表示，中国应该在2024年实现“约5%”的经济增长目标，这一目标将有助于提振信心和重振增长势头。
"I think a target of around 5 percent is probably sufficiently ambitious to boost confidence for businesses, and it is not too stretching so as to avoid the risk of overinvestment and over-stimulus," he told China Daily in an exclusive interview.
欧乐鹰表示，5%左右的目标可能足够雄心勃勃，可以增强企业信心，而且不会过于牵强，可避免过度投资和过度刺激带来的风险。
Orlik said China has the scope to keep monetary and fiscal policy supportive to help bolster recovery of the economy.
欧乐鹰表示，中国有能力长期提供货币和财政支持，以此促进经济复苏。
In the monetary realm, a further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio as well as policy rate cuts will be likely in the following months, he said. Orlik said a forceful fiscal policy will play a bigger role in stimulating domestic demand.
就货币政策而言，中国未来几个月可能会进一步下调存款准备金率和政策利率；同时，强有力的财政政策将在刺激国内需求方面发挥更大的作用。
The focus should be on spurring household spending and stimulating the development of emerging fields, including providing subsidies for households and increasing spending on city transport and green transition.
重点应该放在刺激家庭支出和刺激新兴领域的发展上，具体包括：为家庭提供补贴，增加城市交通和绿色转型所需的相关预算。
"I think the big remaining opportunity for China in terms of delivering stimulus is to leverage the central government's balance sheet. "
他表示，在刺激经济增长方面，中国仍有很大的财政政策空间。
"And that means a bigger fiscal deficit and a bigger role for fiscal policy in driving growth," he said.
”这意味着更大的财政赤字，并使其在推动增长方面发挥更大作用。”
Considering stronger policy support, pressure from a real estate downturn, and slowing global growth, Orlik anticipates that China's economy will expand by around 4.5 percent in 2024.
考虑到更强大的政策支持、房地产的下行压力和全球增长的放缓，欧力鹰预计中国经济将在2024年增长约4.5%。
On the headwinds for the Chinese economy, he said policymakers have been doing the right thing and attempting to manage down the problem of oversupply without triggering a complete collapse in the property sector.
谈及中国经济增长面临的阻力，他表示政策制定者一直在做正确的决策，积极采取措施解决房产过剩问题，同时保证房地产行业不会面临全面崩盘。
In 2024, there will be enough stimulus, financing and support for homebuyers to prevent a collapse in the real estate sector," he said.
欧力鹰认为，2024年将会有各种各样的的措施刺激经济增长、融资、为购房者提供支持，以此保证房地产行业免于崩溃的绝境。
Looking ahead, he said it may take two more years of correction in the sector.While the process may cause problems for some developers, banks and households with all or a lot of their wealth in property,
展望未来，他表示该行业可能还需要两年的修整。这一过程对部分开发商、银行和以地产收入为主或以其为唯一收入的家庭来说，不免算是一场阵痛。
China will have a real estate sector that is smaller as a share of the economy at the end of the process.
但唯有如此，房地产行业在中国经济中所占份额才会有所减少。
"It's more sustainable in terms of its future trajectory," Orlik said. "It also means that China will have less productive resources, capital, workers focused on the real estate sector.
欧力鹰说：“就其未来发展轨迹而言，它更具可持续性。这也意味着中国将减少房地产行业的生产资源、资本和工人配置，
So there can be more focus of productive resources on areas like electric vehicles, for example, where there are very strong growth prospects."
进而将生产资源更多地集中用于电动汽车等增长前景非常强劲的领域。
He said booming emerging fields, such as electric vehicles, sustainable energy and high-speed railways, will offer continued growth opportunities for the Chinese economy.
他表示，电动汽车、可持续能源、高铁等新兴领域的蓬勃发展将为中国经济提供持续增长机遇。
More efforts should be made to steadily get through the real estate correction as well as boost confidence of entrepreneurs and global partners.
要稳步渡过房地产调整期，提振企业家和全球合作伙伴信心。
Orlik also expressed optimism about China's medium -and long-term development prospects, saying there is huge growth potential.
欧力鹰对中国中长期发展前景表示乐观。
"China's overall GDP per capita is just one-third of the level in Japan, so China is still a middle-income country. That means there's a huge amount of development space left."
他说：“目前中国总体人均GDP只有日本的三分之一，仍然是中等收入国家，但发展空间巨大。
Going forward, Orlik said China will remain one of the biggest contributors to global growth, creating significant opportunities around the world.
展望未来，中国仍将是全球增长的最大贡献者之一，为世界各地创造重大机遇。”
