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China's economy is likely to pick up pace and grow steadily in 2024 after a bumpy recovery last year, propelled by the gradual increase in domestic demand and with more stimulus policies in the offing, officials and economists said on Wednesday.
2024年1月17日，官员和经济学家表示，在去年的波折复苏后，受国内需求逐步增加和更多刺激政策的推动，中国经济可能会在2024年加速增长并稳步增长。
As the broader economy is still facing pressures from a property downturn, lack of effective demand and risks associated with local government debts, economists said the country needs to set an annual GDP growth target of around 5 percent to boost business confidence, and the policy easing should focus on housing and fiscal measures.
由于宏观经济仍然面临房地产低迷、有效需求不足和地方政府债务风险等压力，经济学家表示，中国需要设定一个约5%的年度GDP增长目标来提振商业信心，而政策放松应该集中在住房和财政措施上。
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday that China's GDP expanded by 5.2 percent year-on-year in 2023 to 126.06 trillion yuan ($17.63 trillion), surpassing the country's preset annual growth target of around 5 percent.
国家统计局1月17日发布的数据显示，中国2023年GDP同比增长5.2%，至126.06万亿元人民币(17.63万亿美元)，超过了国家预先设定的约5%的年度增长目标。
In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Chinese economy grew 5.2 percent year-on-year, following a 4.9 percent growth in the third quarter.
在2023年，中国经济继第三季度增长4.9%之后，第四季度同比增长5.2%，。
"China's 5.2 percent growth rate is higher than the anticipated global growth rate of around 3 percent, outpacing many major economies," Kang Yi, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a news conference in Beijing on Wednesday. "China is projected to have contributed more than 30 percent of global economic growth in 2023, making it a primary engine driving global growth."
1月17日，国家统计局局长康毅在北京的新闻发布会上表示：“中国5.2%的增长率高于预期的全球增长率（约3%），超过了许多主要经济体。预计到2023年，中国对全球经济增长的贡献率将超过30%，成为推动全球增长的主要引擎。”
Despite the challenges and difficulties ahead, Kang said that China possesses many advantages and enjoys several opportunities, which outweigh the challenges.
尽管未来仍面临挑战和困难，但康毅表示，中国拥有许多优势和机遇，这些优势能够克服挑战。
He said that China's economy is bound to see a steady recovery and improvement in 2024, given the continuing recovery trend, the continuous deepening of reforms and ample policy scope.
他表示，鉴于持续的复苏趋势、改革的不断深化和宽松的政策空间，中国经济在2024年必将迎来稳定的复苏和改善。
Louise Loo, lead economist at British think tank Oxford Economics, said: "There's plenty to be positive about in China's year-end reported numbers. The cyclical trough is likely behind us."
英国智库牛津经济研究院首席经济学家路易丝·卢（Louise Loo）表示：“中国年终报告的数字有很多值得肯定的地方。经济的周期性低谷很有可能已经过去。”
She added that industrial production is likely to accelerate on improved capacity utilization, higher industrial profits, and forward-looking restocking needs.
她补充说，工业生产可能会因更高的产能利用率和更高的工业利润，以及前瞻性的库存需求而加速。
Industrial production is already showing signs of improvement, with China's value-added industrial output growing by 6.8 percent last month after a 6.6 percent growth in November.
工业生产已经显示出改善的迹象，中国工业增加值在2023年11月增长6.6%后，于12月增长了6.8%。
She said that keeping up with the current growth momentum will require an ongoing and coordinated stimulus effort over the next few quarters.
她表示，要保持当前的增长势头，需要在未来几个季度持续和协调的刺激措施。
Zou Yunhan, deputy director of the macroeconomic research office at the State Information Center's Department of Economic Forecasting, said she expects the nation's economy to expand by around 5 percent in 2024.
国家信息中心经济预测部宏观经济研究室副主任邹云汉表示，预测2024年我国经济将增长约5%。
"The momentum of China's economic recovery is poised to undergo further consolidation this year, propelled by robust policy support, the advancement of industrial transformation and upgrading, and the continuous deepening of reforms."
“在强有力的政策支持、产业转型升级的推进和改革的不断深化的推动下，中国经济复苏的势头今年将进一步巩固。”
Meanwhile, due to the "scarring effect" of the COVID-19 pandemic over the past few years, it could still take time for people's spending power to recover, Zou said.
同时，邹云汉表示，由于过去几年新冠肺炎疫情的“创伤效应”，人们的消费能力恢复可能仍需要时间。
Retail sales, a key measurement of consumer spending, increased by 7.4 percent in December, down from the 10.1 percent growth a month earlier.
衡量消费者支出的关键指标——零售额在12月增长了7.4%，低于一个月前的10.1%。
Yu Yongding, an academician at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the contributions of consumption and net exports to GDP growth will likely be lower compared with 2023, and capital formation will thus play a bigger role in maintaining a high growth rate this year.
中国社会科学院院士余永定表示，2024年的消费和净出口对GDP增长的贡献可能比2023年有所下降，因此资本形成在今年保持高增长率方面将发挥更大的作用。
"If the growth rate of consumption in 2024 is lower than that in 2023, achieving a 5 percent GDP growth may require double-digit growth in infrastructure investment," he said.
他说：“如果2024年的消费增长率低于2023年，那么实现5%的GDP增长可能需要基础设施投资的两位数增长。”
Yu said that China should set an annual growth target of at least 5 percent, and the focus should be on expanding budgeted fiscal deficit rates and increase in treasury bonds to provide funding for infrastructure investment.
余永定表示，中国应该设定至少5%的年度增长目标，重点应该是扩大预算财政赤字率和增加国债，为基础设施投资提供资金。
NBS data showed that China's fixed-asset investment rose by 3 percent in 2023. Infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment grew by 5.9 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, while real estate investment fell by 9.6 percent in 2023.
国家统计局数据显示，2023年中国固定资产投资增长了3%。基础设施投资和制造业投资分别增长了5.9%和6.5%，但房地产投资下降了9.6%。
Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, said that China's policymakers have been doing the right thing by attempting to manage the problem of oversupply without triggering a complete collapse in the real estate sector. He said there will be enough stimulus, financing and support for homebuyers this year.
彭博经济(Bloomberg Economics)首席经济学家汤姆·奥尔利克(Tom Orlik)表示，中国的政策制定者一直在做正确的事情，试图在不引发房地产行业全面崩溃的情况下管理供应过剩的问题。他说，今年将有足够的刺激、融资和支持购房者。
He said that China has the scope to keep monetary and fiscal policies supportive to help bolster the economy's recovery, adding that a forceful fiscal policy will play a bigger role in boosting domestic demand.
他说，中国有空间保持货币和财政政策的支持，以帮助支撑经济的复苏，并补充说，有力的财政政策将在提振内需方面发挥更大的作用。
Zheng Houcheng, chief macroeconomist at Yingda Securities, said a further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio as well as policy rate cuts will likely happen in the first half of 2024.
英大证券（Yingda Securities）首席宏观经济学家郑厚成（Zheng Houcheng）表示，进一步降低存款准备金率以及政策利率的降息可能会在2024年上半年发生。
