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A major international bank is predicting that a recession could be on the horizon for the United States.
一家大型国际银行预测，美国可能即将出现经济衰退。
It's defined as a period of decreased economic activity when a nation's gross domestic product contracts or shrinks.
经济衰退被定义为当一个国家的国内生产总值收缩时经济活动减少的时期。
The effects of a recession might include fewer retail sales, less manufacturing, lower income and more people without jobs.
经济衰退的影响可能包括零售额减少、制造业减少、收入降低和更多的人失业。
The organization predicting this is Deutsche Bank.
对此做出预测的是德意志银行。
It's a corporation based in Germany that has a network in 58 countries from Europe to America to Asia.
这是一家总部设在德国的公司，该公司拥有从欧洲到美洲到亚洲的58个国家的关系网。
It's the first major financial institution that's predicting a recession in the U.S. though some other economic groups have said chances are growing for one.
这是第一个预测美国经济衰退的主要金融机构，尽管其他一些经济组织表示，出现衰退的可能性正在增加。
When would this hit?
什么时候会发生呢?
Deutsche Bank says probably between late next year and early 2024, though it adds there's, quote, considerable uncertainty about the timing and how bad the recession might be.
德意志银行表示可能会在明年年底至2024年初之间发生，不过该机构补充说，“经济衰退的时机和严重程度存在相当大的不确定性 ”。
So is this doom and gloom?
经济前景会变得黯淡吗？
Not necessarily. The bank thinks the potential recession will be mild, lasting a relatively short time.
不一定。德意志银行认为，潜在的衰退将是温和的，持续的时间相对较短。
It may be a matter of months with an unemployment rate of more than 5 percent hitting in 2024.
到2024年，失业率将超过5%，这可能只是几个月的事。
For perspective, the current rate, the percentage of American workers who don't have jobs is 3.6 percent.
从目前的情况来看，美国工人的失业率是3.6%。
Why would any of this happen?
为什么会发生这种事?
Inflation, the rapid rise in prices for the things we buy has grown by its fastest pace in 40 years.
通货膨胀，即我们所购买物品价格的快速上涨，以40年来最快的速度增长。
Economic experts think prices will probably stay high for the foreseeable future.
经济专家认为，在可预见的未来，物价可能仍将居高不下。
There is a tool that America's central bank has to try to reduce inflation.
美国中央银行必须设法使用一种降低通胀的工具。
The Federal Reserve can raise interest rates which makes it more expensive to borrow money and that can help lead to price decreases.
美联储可以提高利率，这使得借贷成本更高，这有助于导致价格下跌。
But there are side effects to that.
但这也有副作用。
Deutsche Bank says because inflation is so high, it thinks the FED will raise interest rates so quickly, that it'll slam the brakes on economic growth and put the U.S. into recession.
德意志银行表示，由于通货膨胀率过高，该机构认为美联储将加息过快，这将使经济增长踩下刹车，使美国陷入衰退。
Again, none of this is certain, but the bank thinks all of these events will align in the years ahead.
同样，这一切都不确定，但该银行认为，所有这些事件将在未来几年保持一致。
So, what's the difference between a recession and a depression?
那么，衰退和萧条之间的区别是什么呢?
It comes down to how long the economy contracts.
归根结底，这取决于经济萎缩了多长时间。
A recession is typically defined as two negative quarters of economic growth and as part of the normal business cycle.
经济衰退通常被定义为两个季度的经济负增长，是正常商业周期的一部分。
The U.S. economy has fallen into recession more than 30 times since 1854.
自1854年以来，美国经济已经30多次陷入衰退。
A depression is something vastly different.
而经济萧条则截然不同。
It happens when the economic decline is sustained and might potentially go on for years.
当经济衰退持续并可能持续数年时，就会发生经济萧条。
That's only occurred once in American history in 1929, and it lasted 10 years.
这在美国历史上只发生过一次，那是在1929年，持续了10年。
Because it lasts so long, a depression is more severe.
因为持续时间过长，所以经济萧条会更严重。
A decade ago, unemployment hit 10 percent during the worst of the Great Recession.
十年前，在经济大衰退最严重的时候，失业率达到了10%。
But during the Great Depression, the jobless rate peaked at nearly 25 percent.
但在经济大萧条期间，失业率达到了近25%的峰值。
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