评论
打印
Russia's economy was suffering long before the invasion of Ukraine.
早在入侵乌克兰之前，俄罗斯的经济就不太景气了。
That suffering is now increasing.
俄罗斯经济不景气的情况现在正在加剧。
But a total collapse is unlikely, several economists say.
但一些经济学家表示，完全崩溃的可能性不大。
Richard Connolly is an expert on the Russian economy at the Royal United Services Institute in Britain.
理查德·康诺利是英国皇家联合军种研究所的俄罗斯经济专家。
He said Russia has built, "an economy that's geared for conflict."
他说，俄罗斯已经建立了一个“为冲突做好准备的经济体”。
The Russian government's involvement in the economy, and the money it continues to make from oil and gas exports, will help ease the economic effects for many workers.
俄罗斯政府对经济的干涉以及它继续从石油和天然气出口中赚取的钱将有助于缓解对许多工人的经济影响。
Russia has experienced three serious financial crises in the last 30 years.
俄罗斯在过去30年里经历了三次严重的金融危机。
Still, the value of Russian money has fallen greatly.
不过，俄罗斯货币已经大幅贬值。
That will drive up prices for imported goods.
这将推高进口商品的价格。
Inflation was already at 9 percent before the conflict.
在冲突之前，通货膨胀率已经达到了9%。
Sanctions have frozen a large amount of Russia's foreign money.
制裁措施冻结了俄罗斯的大量外汇。
State finances, however, are doing well with low debt.
然而，由于债务较低，俄罗斯的国家财政状况良好。
When the government does need to borrow, it can borrow money from local banks.
当俄罗斯政府确实需要借款时，它可以从当地银行借款。
Additionally, the government announced support this week for large companies it believes are important to the economy.
此外，俄罗斯政府本周宣布其支持它认为对本国经济重要的大公司。
The short-term effects of Russia's economic growth have differing estimates.
人们对俄罗斯经济增长的短期影响有不同的估计。
Tim Ash is a senior market researcher at BlueBay Asset Management.
蒂姆·阿什是BlueBay资产管理公司的高级市场研究员。
He said, "Russians will be a lot poorer --they won't have cash to holiday in Turkey or send their kids to school in the West--and even then, because of Putin, they will not be welcome."
他说：“俄罗斯人会变得更穷——他们没钱去土耳其度假，也没钱送他们的孩子去西方国家上学——即使那样，因为普京，他们也不会受到欢迎。”
He sees economic growth dropping 10 percent.
他预计俄罗斯的经济增长将会下降10%。
Other economists see a drop of as little as 2 percent or something in between.
其他经济学家认为降幅只有2%或2%至10%之间。
The long-term outlook for Russia's economy is not good, for reasons that were clear before the war.
由于战前俄罗斯经济就明显不景气，俄罗斯经济的长期前景并不乐观。
A few favored insiders control major companies and industries.
少数受青睐的内部人士控制着大公司和行业。
Russia mainly depends on the oil and gas industry.
俄罗斯主要依赖石油和天然气行业。
The average amount a Russian person produces in 2020 was around what it was in 2014.
俄罗斯2020年的人均产量与2014年的人均产量差不多。
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, foreign investments built up over the last 30 years, and jobs it brought, are leaving Russia.
自苏联解体以来，过去30年积累起来的外国投资及其带来的就业机会正在离开俄罗斯。
Large companies like Apple and Ikea have stopped sales or production in Russia.
苹果和宜家等大公司已经停止在俄罗斯销售或生产产品。
Large energy companies like BP, Exxon and Shell have said they will stop buying Russian oil and gas or leave their partnerships.
英国石油公司、埃克森美孚公司和壳牌等大型能源公司表示，他们将停止购买俄罗斯的石油和天然气，即退出合作伙伴关系。
Russia's central bank has stepped in.
俄罗斯央行已经介入。
It has attempted to strengthen the ruble and the banking system, restrict taking out foreign money from banks, and has kept the stock market closed for nearly two weeks.
它试图强化卢布和银行体系，限制从银行撤出外国资金，并让股市关闭了近两周。
The Russian government has announced measures to restrict foreign investors from fleeing.
俄罗斯政府宣布了限制外国投资者逃离俄罗斯的措施。
Such restrictions avoid a complete financial collapse, but they also close off the economy to trade and investment that could fuel growth.
这些限制措施避免了金融体系的全面崩溃，但它们也向可能会促进经济增长的贸易和投资封锁了经济。
Since facing sanctions over its 2014 seizure of Ukraine's Crimea, Russia has prepared for sanctions brought on by the West.
自2014年因接管乌克兰克里米亚而面临制裁以来，俄罗斯已经准备好应对西方国家的制裁。
Connolly has written a book on Russia's reaction to sanctions.
康诺利写了一本有关俄罗斯对制裁的反应的书。
He said Russia's economy is "a durable, in some ways primitive system."
他说，俄罗斯的经济是“一个持久的、在某些方面是原始的体系”。
He said it is based on low debt and the government controls most of the banking system.
他说，它是建立在低债务的基础上的，俄罗斯政府控制着大部分银行系统。
The central bank is able to intervene and support the ruble and banks.
央行能够干预并支持卢布和银行。
"I'm not saying they're going to have a wonderful time. I'm saying they have the resources to deal with these problems," he said.
他说：“我不是说他们会过得很愉快，我是说他们有足够的资源来解决这些问题”。
Trade will fall and fewer goods will be available.
贸易量将会下降，可供购买的商品将会减少。
But the weaker ruble means the Russian government earns more money for the oil it sells because oil is priced in dollars.
但卢布贬值意味着俄罗斯政府可以从其卖出的石油中赚更多的钱，因为石油是以美元定价的。
With recently higher prices, Connolly estimates Russia is getting 2.7 times the number of rubles from oil compared with 2019.
随着最近油价的上涨，康诺利估计，俄罗斯从石油中获得的卢布数量是2019年的2.7倍。
That money can pay workers and those who are retired.
这些钱可以支付工人和退休人员的工资。
U.S. and British officials said they will ban oil imports from Russia.
美国和英国官员表示，他们将禁止从俄罗斯进口石油。
Europe, which depends more on Russia for energy, has held back.
在能源上更依赖俄罗斯的欧洲则有所迟疑。
I'm Gregory Stachel.
格雷戈里·施塔赫尔为您播报。
译文为可可英语翻译，未经授权请勿转载！
