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Rolling five straight sevens at the craps table. Sinking eight consecutive three-point basketball shots. Making the light at the intersection every day all week.
在赌桌上连续掷出五个七点。投中八个连续三分球。一周七天，每天开启十字路口的灯光。
Such streaks are all easily within the bounds of statistical probability. But when they’re happening, people believe that they have what is often called the hot hand. Our brains are hardwired to find such patterns and meaning. And now researchers find that other primates also appear to believe in streaks.
在统计概率范围内，这种连战连胜都很容易做到。但当它们发生时，人们认为它们是所谓的热手效应。我们的大脑习惯于找这样的模式和意义。现在，研究人员发现其他灵长类动物也热衷于连战连胜。
Scientists created computer games that could be played by rhesus monkeys. Some of the games were programmed to show clear patterns—that is, they were fixed. But one game gave random results.
科研人员给猕猴开发了一些电脑游戏。有些游戏模式清晰——这些模式是固定的。而有一种游戏给出的则是随机结果。
The monkeys played more than a thousand rounds, for rewards. They did well in the games with the obvious patterns. But in the random game, the monkeys made moves indicating that they nevertheless expected patterns to occur. The study is in the Journal of Experimental Psychology: Animal Learning and Cognition. [Tommy C. Blanchard, Adreas Wilke and Benjamin Y. Hayden, Hot-hand bias in rhesus monkeys]
为获得奖品，这些猴子玩了上千次。在有清晰模式的游戏中，它们表现得很好。但在随机游戏中，猴子们就蠢蠢欲动了，这表明它们仍期待能创造出一些模式来。这项研究在实验心理学期刊：动物的学习和认知栏目中发表。（托米·C`布兰查德，威尔克和本杰明·Y·海登，论猕猴的热手效应偏好）
Evolution clearly favors the ability to find patterns—foraging for food and noticing where bunches of fruits occur is a great survival tool. But believing in a hot hand, especially in casinos, can make monkeys out of all of us.
显然，寻求模式的能力更顺应进化的需要——觅食或注意哪些地方可以找到大量的水果是一个重要的生存之道。但信仰热手效应，尤其在赌场中，能使猴子在人群中脱颖而出。
译文属可可英语原创，未经允许，不得转载。
