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This is THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY. I'm Darian Woods. And I'm Wailin Wong. So you've probably heard of peak oil.
这里是THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY。我是Darian Woods。我是Wailin Wong。你可能听说过石油峰值。
Yeah, the theory that we've already hit maximum conventional oil production. There's also peak TV.
我们已经达到最大常规石油产量的理论。还有顶峰电视。
That's how some critics describe a golden age of television in the early 2000s. Now let us introduce you to peak 65.
这就是一些评论家对21世纪初电视黄金时代的描述。现在让我们向你介绍65岁峰值。
Yeah. So peak 65 refers to a record number of Americans who are retiring. It's the biggest retirement surge in history, and it started this year.
65岁峰值指的是退休的美国人数量创下历史新高。这是历史上最大的退休潮，从今年开始。
More than 4 million Americans will turn 65 each year between 2024 and 2027. That's over 11,000 people hitting this milestone every single day. It's a lot of birthday candles.
2024年至2027年期间，每年将有超过400万美国人年满65岁。也就是说，每天有超过11000人达到这一里程碑。生日蜡烛可不少。
Yes. We are going to need a bigger cake, or more importantly, we are going to need more robust systems to make sure this record number of retirees is financially secure
我们将需要更大的蛋糕，或者更重要的是，我们将需要更强大的系统来确保创纪录数量的退休人员在经济上有保障，
because we've probably all seen the headlines about how Social Security is in huge trouble. The program's cash surplus is expected to run out in less than a decade.
因为我们可能都看到过关于社会保障陷入巨大困境的头条新闻。该计划的现金盈余预计将在不到十年的时间内耗尽。
The country's retirement systems are due for an overhaul, maybe even one as radical as the creation of Social Security back in 1935.
该国的退休制度需要彻底改革，甚至可能像1935年建立社会保障一样彻底。
Today on the show, we explain the origins of Social Security, and we look at some big ideas to tackle the challenges of peak 65 and beyond.
今天在节目中，我们解释了社会保障的起源，并探讨了一些应对65岁及以后挑战的重大想法。
James Chappel is a historian at Duke University. He has a book coming out in November about the history of aging in the U.S. It's called "Golden Years: How Americans Invented And Reinvented Old Age."
詹姆斯·查佩尔（James Chappel）是杜克大学的历史学家。他有一本关于美国老龄化历史的书将于11月出版。这本书名为“Golden Years: How Americans Invented And Reinvented Old Age”。
And in his book, James makes a bold assertion. He says that Social Security created old age in the U.S.
詹姆斯在他的书中做出了大胆的断言。他说，社会保障在美国创造了老年。
So people have always had concepts of old age, but what has not been around is the idea we have that your life is divided basically into three parts, which is - one is called youth; one is called middle age, and one is called old age.
人们一直都有老年的概念，但我们没有这样的想法，即你的生命基本上分为三个部分：青年、中年、老年。
You cannot find that really before the Social Security era. And a lot of people, of course, didn't even know their own age.
在社会保障时代之前，你真的找不到这个。当然，很多人甚至不知道自己的年龄。
I think there's a whole Blink-182 song about this. It's a classic. What's my age again? What's my age again? You won't hear me singing it. I'm not sure if I'm too old for this. What's your age again, Darian? Not saying.
我认为Blink-182乐队有一整首歌都是关于这个的。这是一首经典歌曲。我几岁了？你不会听到我唱这首歌的。我不确定我是否太老了。你几岁了，达里安？不说。
Anyway, James says there was a recognition that older adults saw a decline in their physical and mental health.
詹姆斯说，人们认识到老年人的身心健康状况正在下降。
But there were no political discussions about what this group needed, nor were there organizations like the AARP.
但没有关于这个群体需要什么的政治讨论，也没有像美国退休人员协会（AARP）这样的组织。
And James says, in the early 1900s, there was not yet this idea of retirement or exiting the labor force with a pension.
詹姆斯说，在20世纪初期，还没有退休或带着养老金退出劳动力市场的想法。
Over in Europe, Germany and England had set up public pension systems, but these kinds of payouts were still a rarity in the U.S.
在欧洲，德国和英国已经建立了公共养老金制度，但这种支付方式在美国仍然很少见。
The idea that, you know, you're 65. Let's have a party. You get a golden watch, and now you're going to hang out on the beach. Like, that does not exist.
你65岁了。让我们开个派对。你得到一块金表，现在你要去海滩闲逛。这根本不存在。
Civil War veterans were getting pensions and a couple of other kind of small fields, like railway workers. But most Americans could not look forward to anything like that.
内战老兵可以领取养老金，还有一些其他小领域的养老金，比如铁路工人。但大多数美国人并不指望这样的事情。
Then came the Great Depression and the realization that older Americans were living in poverty. In addition, working-class families couldn't afford to take care of their parents.
随后大萧条来临，人们意识到美国老年人生活在贫困之中。此外，工薪阶层家庭无力照顾父母。
And so when Roosevelt comes into office and is trying to think about the New Deal, old age pensions is one of the things at the top of his agenda.
当罗斯福上任并试图考虑新政时，老年养老金是他议程上的首要任务之一。
But there are lots of ways to do it. And Americans hadn't been thinking about this very hard for very long. And so there was kind of a chaos of ideas on the table.
但有很多方法可以做到这一点。美国人并没有花很长时间认真考虑这个问题。因此，当时的想法有点混乱。
Here's one of those ideas. It came from a California physician named Francis Townsend. In 1933, he wrote a letter to his local newspaper outlining a plan.
这是其中的一个想法。它来自一位名叫弗朗西斯·汤森（Francis Townsend）的加利福尼亚医生。1933年，他给当地报纸写了一封信，概述了一项计划。
Townsend argued that automation and new technology were going to put large numbers of workers permanently out of a job.
汤森认为，自动化和新技术将使大量工人永久失业。
And so how can we save this economy? Well, let's take a big class of people, say, your job is no longer to labor. Your job is to consume. And what's the fairest way to do it? Well, how about old people? They've already done their work.
那么我们怎样才能拯救这个经济体呢？以一大群人为例，你的工作不再是劳动，而是消费。最公平的做法是什么？老年人呢？他们已经完成了他们的工作。
Townsend proposed that the federal government give every American over the age of 60 $200 per month, regardless of race or gender or employment status.
汤森建议联邦政府每月给每个60岁以上的美国人200美元，无论种族、性别或就业状况如何。
The catch is that they would have to spend that money. And then all that shopping would help lift the U.S. out of the Depression.
问题是他们必须花掉这笔钱。然后所有的购物将有助于美国摆脱大萧条。
Look, Grandpa Joe is out getting a new horse or whatever it is. That's the model that actually catches people's imaginations. There were, like, millions of Americans writing letters to Congressmen in support of the Townsend plan.
爷爷乔出去买了一匹新马或别的什么。这个模型确实吸引了人们的想象力。有数百万美国人写信给国会议员，支持汤森计划。
Someone get Grandpa Joe a horse already. The thing about the Townsend plan, though, was it was super expensive. Two hundred dollars a month works out more than $5,000 today. So this proposal didn't prevail.
有人已经给爷爷乔买了一匹马。不过，汤森计划的问题是它非常昂贵。每月两百美元相当于今天的五千多美元。所以这个提议没有成功。
An earlier and also unsuccessful idea came from a group called the Ex-Slave Mutual Relief, Bounty and Pension Association.
一个早期的、同样不成功的想法来自一个名为前奴隶互助救济、赏金和养老金协会的组织。
It called for pensions to be paid to formerly enslaved people as a form of reparations. But remember, this was the early 1900s. The racism of the Jim Crow era doomed this proposal.
它呼吁向以前被奴役的人支付养老金作为赔偿。但请记住，这是20世纪初。种族歧视注定了这项提议的失败。
And now we get to the idea that won out. There was a group called the Fraternal Order of Eagles. This was an all-male, whites-only organization, and it wanted pensions for older men who were impoverished because they couldn't work in factories anymore.
现在我们来看看最终获胜的想法。有一个名为“雄鹰兄弟会”的组织。这是一个全男性、仅限白人的组织，它希望为那些因为无法再在工厂工作而陷入贫困的老年男性提供养老金。
That's the vision that wins out with Social Security. And someone from the Fraternal Order of Eagles is there with Roosevelt when it's signed.
这就是社会保障最终获胜的愿景。当罗斯福签署该法案时，雄鹰兄弟会的某个人也在那里。
This Social Security measure gives at least some protection to 30 millions of our citizens.
这项社会保障措施至少为我们的3000万公民提供了一些保护。
James describes Social Security as the most important poverty reduction program. It was a massive federal investment in older Americans.
詹姆斯将社会保障描述为最重要的减贫计划。这是联邦政府对美国老年人的一项大规模投资。
And that brings us to the important question of who counts as old. The architects of Social Security settled on the age of 65.
这给我们带来了一个重要的问题：谁算老年人。社会保障的制定者将退休年龄定在65岁。
And you might remember from our previous episodes on Social Security that each generation of workers pays for the generation above them.
您可能还记得，我们之前关于社会保障的报道中提到，每一代工人都要为他们上一代人支付费用。
Sixty-five was calculated to be the age that would provide for a self-sustaining system without imposing heavy payroll taxes.
65岁是可以维持自给自足的制度而无需征收高额工资税的年龄。
In 1983, the retirement age was raised to 67. And now, given the crisis looming for Social Security, some Republican lawmakers have proposed raising it more, potentially closer to 70.
1983年，退休年龄提高到67岁。现在，鉴于社会保障即将面临的危机，一些共和党议员提议将退休年龄提高更多，可能接近70岁。
You know, in France, when they raised the retirement age recently, it was just to 64, and there were public protests.
在法国，他们最近将退休年龄提高到64岁，并引发了公众抗议。
I think some old folks here in the U.S. might want to riot if the age goes to 70 because, by... Sure.
我认为，如果退休年龄提高到70岁，美国的一些老年人可能会想要暴动。
Some estimates, that would result in a nearly 20% cut in their benefits. The Biden administration, for its part, wants to tax wages above the current cutoff of $400,000 in order to make Social Security more solvent.
有人估计，这将导致他们的福利减少近20%。拜登政府则希望对超过目前40万美元的工资征税，以使社会保障更具偿付能力。
But either way, older Americans are already financially vulnerable. The financial picture for older Americans has been changing.
但无论如何，美国老年人在经济上已经很脆弱了。美国老年人的财务状况一直在变化。
Karen Andres leads the inclusive saving and investment initiative at the Aspen Institute.
凯伦·安德烈斯(Karen Andres)领导着阿斯彭研究所的包容性储蓄和投资计划。
She says not only are people living for longer after retirement, but they're also carrying more debt into older adulthood. They have student loans and mortgages.
她说，人们退休后不仅寿命更长，而且他们在老年时背负的债务也更多。他们有学生贷款和抵押贷款。
We are left in a situation where people are facing many more years of life without labor income at the same time that the systems really aren't working to meet that challenge.
我们面临的情况是，人们在没有劳动收入的情况下还要面对更多年的生活，而与此同时，这些系统实际上并没有发挥作用来应对这一挑战。
More than 30 million Americans have state and local government pensions, but those plans are underfunded and have thrown some state budgets into disarray over the years.
超过3000万美国人拥有州和地方政府养老金，但这些计划资金不足，多年来导致一些州的预算陷入混乱。
Then in the private sector, nearly half of workers don't have access to an employer-sponsored retirement plan.
然后在私营部门，近一半的工人无法获得雇主赞助的退休计划。
Karen says one way to address this gap is creating new kinds of emergency savings accounts at work. Some employers, including Starbucks and Delta, already offer these accounts.
凯伦说，解决这一差距的一种方法是在工作中创建新的应急储蓄账户。包括星巴克和达美航空在内的一些雇主已经提供这些账户。
Workers can withdraw from these types of accounts if they're hit with an emergency. It's an alternative to tapping into their 401(k) accounts early, which could carry penalties.
如果遇到紧急情况，员工可以从这些类型的账户中提款。这是提前动用401(k)账户的替代方案，因为提前动用401(k)账户可能会受到处罚。
And then for older workers who are eligible to claim Social Security, they can put off doing that, which means a bigger payout later.
对于有资格申请社会保障的老年工人来说，他们可以推迟申请，这意味着以后可以获得更大的赔付。
I think one of the big ideas that we're ready to wrestle with is, should the role of retirement savings in that pre-retirement or early retirement period be about helping people delay claiming as long as possible?
我认为我们准备解决的一个大问题就是，退休储蓄在退休前或提前退休期间的作用是否应该是帮助人们尽可能推迟申请？
Karen points out that designing systems to make older Americans less financially precarious isn't just a necessity of this peak 65 period we're living in.
凯伦指出，设计系统以减少美国老年人的财务不稳定不仅仅是我们所处的65岁高峰期的必要条件。
The millennial generation that's coming up behind the baby boomers - it's an even bigger group. So it's about shoring up their future financial security, too.
紧随婴儿潮一代之后的千禧一代——这是一个更大的群体。这也是为了巩固他们未来的财务安全。
