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This is THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY. I'm Wailin Wong. And I'm Paddy Hirsch.
这里是THE INDICATOR FROM PLANET MONEY。我是Wailin Wong。我是Paddy Hirsch。
There is a big fight going on in Pennsylvania right now about the future of U.S. Steel, which recently agreed to sell itself to a Japanese firm called Nippon Steel for $15 billion.
宾夕法尼亚州目前正在就美国钢铁公司的未来展开一场大斗争，该公司最近同意以150亿美元的价格将自己出售给新日铁。
And the fight has arranged itself in an interesting way - not left against right, the way it might have a decade ago, but economists against politicians.
这场斗争以一种有趣的方式展开——不是像十年前那样左翼与右翼的对抗，而是经济学家与政客的对抗。
Yeah, economists are for it. They say the deal will save jobs. Politicians oppose the deal on the grounds that American manufacturers should stay American.
是的，经济学家支持这笔交易。他们说这笔交易将挽救就业。政客们反对这笔交易，理由是美国制造商应该保持美国特色。
But there are loads of American companies that are owned by foreigners - right? - like Firestone. Japanese.
但是有很多美国公司是外国人所有的——对吧？——比如日本所有的凡士通。
Anheuser-Busch. Belgian-Brazilian. And Ben & Jerry's, the iconic ice cream company is owned by the Brits. I'm going to throw it into the ocean. Not - as long as it's not pistachio.
比利时-巴西所有的安海斯-布希公司。标志性的冰淇淋公司Ben & Jerry's归英国人所有。我要把它扔进海里。不——只要它不是开心果。
So why the resistance to foreign ownership now? Well, here's the thing - U.S. Steel is based in Pennsylvania,
那么，为什么现在会抵制外资所有权呢？事情是这样的——美国钢铁公司总部设在宾夕法尼亚州，
and Pennsylvania is a so-called battleground state, one of the very few in the nation that is hotly contested in this upcoming presidential election.
宾夕法尼亚州是所谓的战场州，是即将到来的总统选举中全美为数不多的几个激烈竞争的州之一。
Which raises the question, is the opposition to the U.S. Steel deal really about economics and jobs and national security or is it about politics and perception, trying to win precious votes at any cost?
这就提出了一个问题，反对美国钢铁交易的真正原因是经济、就业和国家安全，还是出于政治和观念，不惜一切代价试图赢得宝贵的选票？
On today's episode, we'll look at how politics can often distort economics and find out whether that's what's happening in Pennsylvania and some other battleground states right now. That's coming up after the break.
在今天的节目中，我们将看看政治如何经常扭曲经济，并找出宾夕法尼亚州和其他一些战场州现在是否正在发生这种情况。休息后会讲到。
It is the economy, stupid. This is a phrase used by James Carville, a Clinton political adviser in the 1992 elections.
笨蛋，关键是经济！这是克林顿1992年大选中政治顾问詹姆斯·卡维尔使用的一句口号。
It was true then, and it seems to be true today. The economy is the top issue for voters in this election.
当时是这样，现在似乎也是如此。经济是选民在这次选举中关注的首要问题。
But what does the economy actually mean? Michael Strain is a director of economic policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute. That's a think tank that you might say leans gently to the right.
但经济到底意味着什么？迈克尔·斯特兰（Michael Strain）是美国企业研究所经济政策研究主任。你可能会说，这是一个略微右倾的智库。
Mike says that when it comes to the U.S. Steel deal in Pennsylvania and the opposition to it from both presidential candidates, the economy doesn't necessarily mean good economics.
迈克说，当谈到美国宾夕法尼亚州的钢铁交易以及两位总统候选人对此的反对时，经济并不一定意味着好的经济状况。
The idea that we should be, you know, troubled by foreign investment in the United States is completely backwards.
我们应该对外资在美国感到不安的想法完全是错误的。
Foreign investment is a good thing and is, you know, a very important source of productivity growth and wage growth for workers. It helps to make American companies more competitive.
外资是好事，是生产力增长和工人工资增长的重要来源。它有助于提高美国公司的竞争力。
And before you say to yourself, well, he's one of those business-friendly conservatives, here's Betsey Stevenson, former chief economist in the Department of Labor under the Obama administration.
在你对自己说，他是那些商业友好的保守派之一之前，以下是奥巴马政府劳工部前首席经济学家贝齐·史蒂文森（Betsey Stevenson）的发言。
We should welcome getting savings from Japanese consumers coming in and helping Japanese companies invest in U.S. jobs.
我们应该欢迎日本消费者的储蓄进入美国，帮助日本公司投资美国就业。
Like, that's the dream - right? - having outside investment support a growing U.S. economy.
这就是美国梦——对吧？——让外资支持不断增长的美国经济。
So while economists of all political leanings pretty much agree that the U.S. Steel deal with Nippon Steel should go ahead, politicians of all political leanings - or the ones that matter at least - say it should not.
尽管所有政治倾向的经济学家都基本同意美国钢铁公司与新日本制铁的协议应该继续进行，但所有政治倾向的政客——至少是那些重要的政客——都表示不应该。
Yes. Former President Trump opposes the deal. So does President Biden and Vice President Harris.
前总统特朗普反对这项交易。拜登总统和哈里斯副总统也反对。
They're worried about a potential threat to around 14,000 North American jobs, and the Steel Union agrees. It doesn't trust Nippon Steel to keep those workers employed.
他们担心这可能会对大约14000个北美工作岗位构成潜在威胁，钢铁工会也同意这一观点。它不相信新日铁能让这些工人继续就业。
Mike Strain points out that without a deal, U.S. Steel could go under. He says not only has Nippon Steel offered to pay $15 billion for U.S. Steel... In cash.
迈克·斯特兰指出，如果没有达成协议，美国钢铁公司可能会破产。他说，新日铁不仅愿意现金支付150亿美元收购美国钢铁公司。
My goodness. It has also pledged a further 1.4 billion to refurbish U.S. Steel's aging facilities. That will protect those jobs, he says, and potentially even create more.
它还承诺再投入14亿美元翻新美国钢铁公司的老化设施。他说，这将保护这些工作岗位，甚至可能创造更多工作岗位。
The deal doesn't close any manufacturing facilities and move them to Japan. The deal keeps everything in the United States. Moreover, the deal would strengthen America's steel-producing capacity.
该协议不会关闭任何制造工厂并将其转移到日本。该协议将所有东西都留在了美国。此外，该交易将增强美国的钢铁生产能力。
The rules of orthodox economics then dictate that the U.S. Steel-Nippon Steel deal should go ahead.
正统经济学规则决定了美国钢铁公司与新日铁的交易应该继续进行。
But of course, the two candidates in the presidential race aren't focused on orthodox economics in Pennsylvania.
但当然，总统竞选中的两位候选人并不关注宾夕法尼亚州的正统经济学。
They're focused on politics, on winning the votes of Pennsylvanians. Betsey says that is an entirely different kettle of fish.
他们关注的是政治，关注的是赢得宾夕法尼亚州人的选票。贝齐说，这完全是两回事。
Everybody's fighting over a very small number of marginal voters, that you have to get them to deeply believe you're on their side and you're trying to make it right for them.
每个人都在争夺极少数的边缘选民，你必须让他们深信你站在他们一边，你正在努力为他们争取利益。
I think that that's the way in which politics is hijacking economics, leading for people to argue for the kind of populist policies that make economists want to claw their eyes out because they seem like they don't make any sense.
我认为这就是政治劫持经济的方式，导致人们争论那种让经济学家想挖出自己眼睛的民粹主义政策，因为它们看起来毫无意义。
It's not just in Pennsylvania that economics have been hijacked. It's Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina - all battleground states that have become crucibles of debate about the future of manufacturing in the U.S.
不仅仅是在宾夕法尼亚州，经济被劫持了。密歇根州、威斯康星州、北卡罗来纳州——所有这些战场州都已成为美国制造业未来的争论焦点。
And manufacturing, of course, used to be a big employer in the U.S. - one of the biggest, even. But Betsey says that hasn't been the case for a long time.
当然，制造业曾经是美国最大的雇主。但贝齐说，这种情况已经很久没有发生了。
Today, it's a mere 8% of U.S. jobs. And I think that's really hard for people who grew up and were young adults at a time when the middle class really depended on a strong manufacturing sector.
如今，制造业仅占美国就业岗位的8%。我认为这对那些在中产阶级真正依赖强大制造业时代长大的人来说真的很难。
That voter nostalgia has driven both Harris and Trump to focus on the revival of manufacturing in their campaigns.
选民的这种怀旧情绪促使哈里斯和特朗普在竞选中关注制造业的复兴。
Mike Strain says that populist impulse is making for some questionable economic calls.
迈克·斯特兰说，民粹主义冲动正在引发一些值得怀疑的经济呼吁。
We're seeing a lot of silly and harmful ideas of what seems to be a willingness to continue policies from the Trump and Biden administrations where we have demonstrable evidence of harm to American workers and to the U.S. economy.
我们看到很多愚蠢和有害的想法，似乎愿意继续特朗普政府和拜登政府的政策，而我们有确凿的证据证明这些政策对美国工人和美国经济造成了伤害。
Mike is talking here about protectionism, tariffs, subsidies. Protectionism's designed to shield American industry from foreign competition, maybe even to keep America self-sufficient, which may sound like a good idea in principle.
迈克在这里谈论的是保护主义、关税和补贴。保护主义旨在保护美国工业免受外国竞争，甚至可能让美国自给自足，这在原则上听起来是个好主意。
But Mike argues that history has shown that protectionism taken to an extreme comes with a sting in its tail.
但迈克认为，历史表明，保护主义走极端会带来副作用。
If you are arguing that the U.S. should be self-sufficient, then you are arguing that American workers should be less productive, that American workers should have lower wages,
如果你认为美国应该自给自足，那么你就是认为美国工人的生产力应该降低，美国工人的工资应该降低，
that American households should have lower income and that America's, you know, long-term economic future should be quite dim.
美国家庭的收入应该降低，美国的长期经济前景应该相当暗淡。
The most recent round of protectionism, mainly aimed at protecting U.S. industry from Chinese competition, was ushered in by the Trump administration, and it's been maintained by President Biden since.
最近一轮的保护主义主要是为了保护美国工业免受中国竞争，是由特朗普政府发起的，此后拜登总统一直维持这一政策。
But protectionism is not a new thing, nor is it the province of any one political party as loyal INDICATOR listeners know.
但正如忠实的INDICATOR听众所知，保护主义并不是什么新鲜事，也不是任何一个政党的领域。
In this presidential campaign, the distortion of economics by populist politics is a feature of both party's platforms in the battleground states, but it's not confined to those states.
在这次总统竞选中，民粹主义政治对经济的扭曲是两党在战场州政纲的一个特点，但并不局限于这些州。
Betsey Stevenson says the remarkable thing about the stances taken by both the Harris and the Trump campaigns is that they're so consistent in their messaging across the U.S. and so similar to each other in content.
贝齐·史蒂文森说，哈里斯和特朗普竞选团队所持立场的非凡之处在于，他们在美国各地传递的信息如此一致，内容也如此相似。
This protectionism, it's the same on both sides of the aisle.
这种保护主义，两党都一样。
Yeah. Both candidates essentially agree that protectionism is good and, in the case of U.S. Steel, that foreign ownership is bad
是的。两位候选人基本上都同意保护主义是好的，就美国钢铁公司而言，外资所有权是坏事，
even if that investment comes from an ally, bails a U.S. company out, shores up the American steel industry and saves American jobs.
即使这种投资来自盟友，拯救了一家美国公司，支撑了美国钢铁业，挽救了美国的就业机会。
Betsey says that protectionist message may fly in the face of good economic practice, but it resonates with a significant chunk of the American population -
贝齐说，保护主义信息可能与良好的经济实践背道而驰，但它引起了相当一部分美国人的共鸣——
whatever state they live in - because they feel the economy hasn't necessarily been good to them for a while now.
无论他们住在哪个州——因为他们觉得一段时间以来经济对他们来说并不一定很好。
It feels like the system's rigged, that somehow you don't have a fair shot.
感觉就像这个系统被操纵了，不知何故你没有公平的机会。
You know, it's like a deep-seated notion of unfairness that I think a lot of people feel deep in their bones, and how they're reacting to that unfairness is different.
这就像一种根深蒂固的不公平观念，我认为很多人都深有体会，而他们对这种不公平的反应也各不相同。
But it's causing everybody to feel like I need to keep more for myself. That's protectionism - more for me.
但这让每个人都觉得我需要为自己保留更多。这就是保护主义——更多属于我自己。
Betsey says and Mike Strain agrees the distortion of economics by populist and protectionist politics hasn't been manufactured by this campaign. It's been a long time coming.
贝齐说，迈克·斯特兰也同意，民粹主义和保护主义政治对经济的扭曲并不是由这场竞选造成的。这是长期存在的。
Nor is the distortion confined to the battleground states - they just happen to be where the spotlight is shining right now and where we can see exactly how these policies are playing out.
这种扭曲并不局限于战场州——它们恰好是目前聚光灯照耀的地方，我们可以清楚地看到这些政策是如何发挥作用的。
