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Sam, let’s start with you.What are the most important capabilities that ChatGPT will develop in the next year?
萨姆，你先说吧。明年，ChatGPT最重要的能力是什么？
The world had like a two-week freakout with GPT-4, right? "This changes everything. AGI is coming tomorrow. There are no jobs by the end of the year." And now people are like, "Why is it so slow?"
GPT-4给世界造成了长达两周的恐慌，人们评论道：“这改变了一切。人工通用智能（AGI）明天就要来了。到年底还没有工作岗位。”现在人们反而会问：“为什么更新迭代得这么慢？”
And I love that. I think that’s a great thing about the human spirit, that we always want more and better.
我喜欢这种转变。我认为这是人类精神的伟大之处，我们总是想要更多、更好。
We’ve not had this where there has been some general-purpose technology whose diffusion happened instantaneously everywhere.
我们还没有见过某种通用技术可以瞬间传播到各地。
In any place health care and education is most of the government spend.
在任何地方，医疗保健和教育都占了政府支出的大头。
You now have, right, the ability to give every student and every citizen of the globe better health advice and a better personalised tutor.
是的，您现在有能力为全球每个学生和每个公民提供更好的健康咨询和个性化导师。
You know, I often think one interesting way to measure this is, "What percent of tasks can GPT-4 do?" Let’s say it’s 10%. Can GPT-5 do 12% of human tasks? Or 15%, or 20%?
我经常认为衡量这一点的一个有趣方法是：“GPT-4 可以完成多少任务？” 假设是10%，那么 GPT-5 可以完成12%吗？还是15%，或是20%？
But the fact that so many people are able to use it for productivity in their workflow,
但事实上，很多人都能够在工作流程中使用它来提高生产力，
That’s the power and I know it’s not a satisfying as saying here’s each thing it will do.
这就是其强大之处，我知道，仅仅说它会做的每件事并不能令人满意。
But it’s that it becomes a companion for knowledge work. It becomes a way to use a computer.
但它可以充当脑力工作的助手，成为一种使用计算机的方式。
I hear that and that’s an absolutely appropriate answer to my question, but I guess, I’m trying to get at the sense of whether this is incremental or whether it’s radical, even in the next year?
这是对我提出问题的一个绝佳回答，但我想知道，即便是在明年，这是渐进的还是激进的？
I believe that some day we will make something that qualifies as an AGI by whatever fuzzy definition you want, the world will have a two-week freakout and then people will go on with their lives.
我相信终有一天我们会制造出可算作AGI的东西，无论你想要什么模糊的定义，世界都将经历两周的恐慌，然后人们会继续他们的生活。
Sam Altman just said the world would only have a two-week freakout when we get to AGI. That’s quite a statement to make.
萨姆·奥尔特曼刚刚说，当我们进入AGI时代时，世界只会经历两周的恐慌。这是一个非常值得发表的言论。
One thing I say a lot is no one knows what happens next and I can’t see to the other side of that event horizon with any detail, but it does seem like the deep human motivations will not go anywhere.
我经常说的一件事是，没有人知道接下来会发生什么，我也看不到另一面的任何细节，但似乎人类内心深处不想去到任何地方。
This is when people start getting alarmed that we have no idea...we’re going to have an intelligence that is more intelligent than all of us, and we have no idea what happens next.
当人们开始担心我们不知道......我们则将拥有更大的智慧，但我们不知道接下来会发生什么。
No, no, one thing I love to do is go back and read about the contemporaneous accounts of technological revolutions at the time.
不，我喜欢做的一件事就是回顾当时技术革命的同期记录。
And the expert predictions are just always totally wrong.
专家的预测总是完全错误的。
And you need to have some flexibility in your opinions and look, have a tight feedback loop with how it’s going with the world.
你的需要灵活看待问题，对世界发展要有一个紧密的反馈回路。
