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In Ukraine, the battle map has been shifting in Kyiv’s favor.
在乌克兰，战斗地图正在向有利于基辅的方向转变。
Yet in the critical weeks ahead, it’s the weather map that may turn out to matter more.
然而，在未来关键的几周，天气地图可能会变得更重要。
In the Kremlin, in war-ravaged Ukraine, and in the allied capitals on which Ukraine is relying for military and financial support, the countdown to winter has begun.
在克里姆林宫，在饱受战争蹂躏的乌克兰，以及乌克兰赖以获得军事和财政支持的盟国首都，冬季的倒计时已经敲响。
Russian President Vladimir Putin is hoping it will be a long and punishingly cold one.
俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京希望将迎来一个漫长而严酷的寒冬。
And he’s giving every indication that he is determined to maximize day-to-day suffering – and economic damage – by denying heat and electricity to Ukraine and its allies in Europe.
他释放出种种迹象，表明他决心通过拒绝向乌克兰及其欧洲盟友提供暖气和电力，最大限度地增加他们每天的痛苦和经济损失。
The twin aims are to break the morale of Ukrainians and to weaken European public support for Kyiv by raising the price of such solidarity.
这两个目的是通过增加乌克兰与欧洲盟友团结的代价，打击乌克兰人的士气，削弱欧洲公众对基辅的支持。
The question is whether it will work.
问题是这是否会奏效。
His invasion six month ago, intended to subdue and swallow up Ukraine within days, proved an epic misjudgment.
他6个月前入侵乌克兰，意图在几天内镇压并吞并乌克兰，结果被证明是一个巨大的误判。
Has he miscalculated again?
他又算错了吗?
The answer will lie with the Ukrainians and their allies.
答案将取决于乌克兰及其盟友。
And for months now, they too have had their eyes on the winter ahead.
几个月来，他们也在关注着即将到来的冬天。
That has already been evident in Ukraine’s dramatic offensive against Russia’s occupation forces in the east of the country.
乌克兰在该国东部对俄罗斯占领军发动的戏剧性攻势已经明显地体现了这一点。
As long ago as mid-July, a top aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was stressing the need to make major advances before winter, when the Russians would be able to “dig in” and better resist attacks to dislodge them.
早在7月中旬，乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽连斯基的一名高级助手就在强调，有必要在冬季之前取得重大进展，因为在冬季，俄罗斯人将能够“掘壕固守”，更好地抵御驱逐俄军的攻击。
That helps explain the urgency with which Ukraine has moved – retaking some 1,500 square miles of its territory in the northeast – and its push to make further gains before winter sets in.
这有助于解释乌克兰采取行动的紧迫性——重新夺回东北部约1500平方英里的领土——以及解释乌克兰在冬季到来之前取得的进一步进展。
How successful they are will hinge only partly on the Russian army’s readiness to fight; more important is whether Ukraine’s allies are ready to provide more and more powerful weaponry.
他们的成功程度只在一定程度上取决于俄罗斯军队的战斗准备；更重要的是，乌克兰的盟友是否准备好提供越来越强大的武器。
But the Kremlin will be just as worried by another aspect of Europe’s winter planning – the continent’s intensive efforts to cushion the effects of the energy crisis that Mr. Putin is counting on to undermine support for Mr. Zelenskyy.
但克里姆林宫同样担心的是欧洲冬季计划的另一个方面——欧洲大陆为缓解能源危机的影响所做的密集努力，而普京指望能源危机会削弱欧洲对泽连斯基的支持。
For months, European Union states have been urgently restocking badly depleted stores of natural gas.
几个月来，欧盟国家一直在紧急补充快要耗尽的天然气储备。
This week, the president of the EU’s executive commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced that their storage facilities were now nearly 85% full.
本周，欧盟执行委员会主席乌尔苏拉·冯德莱恩宣布，他们的能源存储设施现在已接满85%。
