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Franz Ferdinad's plans for liberalizing the empire, granting all men the vote, and giving each nationality more autonomy may have come from a cynical calculation
弗朗茨·斐迪南的帝国自由化计划，给予所有人选举权，给予每个民族更多自治权可能是出于一种愤世嫉俗的算计，
that it was the only way to keep his family in power, but it really would've improved things for millions.
他认为这是保持家族权力的唯一途径，不过这确实能够改善数百万人的生活状况。
It's not beyond the realms of possibility that a reformed, federal Austria-Hungary would've survived right up to today.
一个经过改革的联邦奥匈帝国能够存活到今天的可能性并不大。
But we'll never know for sure, because Franz Josef nixed every single plan Ferdinand had.
但我们永远无法确定，因为弗朗茨·约瑟夫否决了斐迪南的每一个计划。
In the court, these stifled reforms turned Franz Ferdinand into a laughing stock.
在法庭上，这些令人窒息的改革让弗朗茨·斐迪南成了笑柄。
It was whispered in Vienna that the heir was clinically insane, that his family's inbreeding had caught up with him.
维也纳有传言说，这位继承人被诊断为精神失常，他的家族近亲结婚害了他。
For a while, Ferdiand tried to brave the storm.
有一段时间，斐迪南试图勇敢面对风暴。
But even this insanely unpopular man wasn't immune to public opinion.
但即便这个本身就极不受欢迎的人也无法不受公众舆论的影响。
In the mid-1900s, Ferdinand and Sophie abruptly quit Vienna.
20世纪中期，斐迪南和索菲突然离开维也纳。
They retired to their home of Konopiste in what is now the Czech Republic, and settled down to a life of domestic bliss.
他们退休后回到了科诺皮斯特，也就是现在的捷克共和国，安顿了下来，过着幸福的家庭生活。
It was almost a happy ending.
这个结局几乎皆大欢喜。
Together, the couple had three children; and Franz Ferdinand settled back into his old passion of horticulture, creating one of the world's largest rose gardens.
这对夫妇总共生了三个孩子。弗朗茨·斐迪南回归了他对园艺的热爱，建造了世界上最大的玫瑰园之一。
In another time, in another place, that might have been the end of things: with Sophie a happy mother, and Ferdinand quietly pressing his roses by candlelight, all the cares of empire forgotten.
如果在另一个时代，另一个地方，这也许就是这个故事的大结局了：苏菲，一个幸福的母亲，斐迪南在烛光下静静地压着玫瑰，将所有帝国的烦恼抛在脑后。
But this was Europe in the early 20th Century, a tinderbox less than a decade away from exploding.
然而这是20世纪初的欧洲，一个不到十年就会爆炸的火药桶。
For Franz Ferdinand and Sophie there would be no peace.
对于弗朗茨·斐迪南和索菲来说没有和平可言。
The wheels were already in motion. Their violent fate was waiting for them.
车轮已经开动了，他们暴烈的命运正等着他们。
On 28 June, 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife Sophie disembarked from a train in the Bosnian city of Sarajevo and stepped into an open-topped car.
1914年6月28日，弗朗茨·斐迪南大公和他的妻子索菲在波斯尼亚城市萨拉热窝下了火车，走进了一辆敞篷汽车。
It was a hot day and the river running through the center of the city was lower than usual.
那是一个炎热的日子，就连流经市中心的那条河的水位也比平时低了些。
But as the motorcade whipped past, it wasn't the river the archduke should've been looking at. It was the crowds.
但当车队疾驰而过时，大公应该注意的不是这条河，而是人群。
Near the city's old Latin Bridge, Nedeljko Cabrinovic and Gavrilo Princip waited, anonymous faces amid the assembled masses.
就在这座城市古老的拉丁桥附近，卡布里诺维奇和普林西普等待着，人群中有很多陌生的面孔。
In their pockets of their heavy coats sat bombs and guns.
他们厚重的外套口袋里装着炸弹和枪支。
Near their trembling fingertips lay cyanide capsules.
他们颤抖的手里攥着氰化物胶囊。
They and their comrades had one goal: to kill the heir of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
他们以及他们的同伴只有一个目标：杀死奥匈帝国的继承人。
To understand why, we need to quickly wind back Father Time's videotape.
要想知道原因，我们得赶紧把“时间老人”的录像带往回倒。
Remember when we told you Sarajevo was part of the decaying Ottoman Empire?
还记得我们说过萨拉热窝是衰落的奥斯曼帝国的一部分吗？
Well, fifteen years after Franz Ferdinand's birth, in 1878, the Ottoman Empire had completely decayed in the Balkans, losing nearly all its territories.
在弗朗茨·斐迪南出生15年后，也就是1878年，奥斯曼帝国在巴尔干半岛彻底衰败，几乎失去了所有领土。
Into this power vacuum the Austro-Hungarians had marched, taking over Bosnia on the strict understanding that they were only there to keep the region from imploding.
奥匈帝国进入了这一权力真空，占领了波斯尼亚，他们认为自己的存在只是为了防止该地区瓦解。
But Vienna and Budapest had no intention of ever leaving.
但是维也纳和布达佩斯并没有离开的打算。
In 1908, they'd officially annexed the region.
1908年，他们正式吞并了该地区。
But rather than passing virtually unnoticed, it had caused a European crisis.
但这件事并没有悄无声息地过去，反而引发了一场欧洲危机。
An outraged Russia had permanently turned its back on Austria-Hungary.
愤怒的俄国永远地背弃了奥匈帝国。
In the Balkans, Serbs had declared the empire their mortal enemy.
在巴尔干半岛，塞尔维亚人曾宣布这个帝国是他们的死敌。
And now Cabrinovic and Princip were determined to make the empire pay.
现在卡布里诺维奇和普林西普决定让帝国付出代价。
Interestingly, they nearly didn't get their chance.
有趣的是，他们机会很少。
The night before, Franz Ferdinand had had a premonition that all would not be well in Sarajevo.
前天晚上，弗朗茨·斐迪南就预感到萨拉热窝的一切都不会好。
But it was his and Sophie's wedding anniversary, and these semi-unofficial trips with minimal security were the only ones Franz Josef allowed Sophie to go on.
但那天是他和索菲的结婚纪念日，弗朗茨·约瑟夫只允许索菲参加这种半非官方的、安全措施最少的旅行。
So here the couple were, speeding alongside the half-dry river in Sarajevo, blissfully unaware of the men waiting to kill them.
这对夫妇在萨拉热窝半干涸的河边超速行驶，非常幸福，并没有意识到有人在等着杀他们。
As the car roared past the Latin Bridge, Cabrinovic whipped out a bomb and hurled it.
当汽车呼啸着驶过拉丁桥时，卡布里诺维奇突然掏出一枚炸弹，把它扔了出去。
But the bomb bounced off the car and hit the police escort behind, blowing them up instead.
但炸弹从汽车上弹开，击中了后面的警察护卫队，把他们炸飞了。
In panic, Cabrinovic forgot his gun and tried to commit suicide by leaping into the river… …only to land on the dried-out bank, missing the water and breaking his legs.
慌乱中，卡布里诺维奇忘记带枪，试图跳入河中自杀…… 结果落在干涸的河岸上，错过了水，摔断了腿。
As Gavrilo Princip watched in a daze, the car carrying his and Cabrinovic's target motored away at speed.
普林西普茫然地看着，载着他和卡布里诺维奇的目标的汽车飞快地开走了。
He'd failed. Except, as you already know, he hadn't.
他失败了。不过，正如你已经知道的，他没有失败。
What came next was like something out of a tragic farce.
接下来发生的事情就像是一场悲剧性的闹剧。
The car carrying Ferdiand and Sophie stopped at the City Hall, as scheduled.
载着斐迪南和索菲的汽车如期在市政厅停了下来。
But rather than focus on getting the hell away from Sarajevo, everyone carried on like nothing had happened.
但大家并没有把注意力集中在逃离萨拉热窝上，而是继续像什么都没发生过一样。
Once the ceremony was over, Franz Ferdinand even insisted on driving back into town to check on the wounded.
仪式一结束，弗朗茨·斐迪南甚至坚持要开车回镇上检查伤员。
As someone who'd been there that day later said: "We all felt awkward, because we knew that when he went out he would certainly be killed."
正如后来那天在场的一个人所说：“我们都觉得尴尬，因为我们知道，他出去肯定会被杀。”
Yet no-one stopped the archduke from getting back in the car.
但没有人能阻止大公回到车里。
No-one told the driver to take a different route in case more assassins were waiting.
没有人告诉司机换条路线以防更多等在那里的杀手。
And no-one raised a finger as Ferdinand and Sophie headed back towards the Latin Bridge, where Gavrilo Princip was still standing in shock, unable to believe he'd missed his chance to assassinate the Austrian heir.
当斐迪南和索菲返回拉丁桥时没有人阻止，加夫里洛·普林西普仍震惊地站在那里，不敢相信自己错过了刺杀这位奥地利继承人的机会。
