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These computer models can use real-world climate influences, like how much CO2 is present in the atmosphere,
这些计算机模型可以利用真实世界的气候影响，比如大气中有多少二氧化碳，
to create a more complete timeline of extreme events.
来创建一个更完整的极端事件时间表。
Or, they can create hundreds of hypothetical histories that span thousands of years to test our world against.
它们还可以创造成百上千年的假想历史来检验我们的世界。
This allows researchers to look at the world without human-caused climate change, and assess the probability of events happening.
这使得研究人员能够观察没有人为气候变化的世界，并评估事件发生的可能性。
By comparing the probability between Earth with and without climate change, researchers can begin to quantify the changes in risk ...
通过比较地球有无气候变化的概率，研究人员可以开始量化风险的变化……
and test how much the frequency and magnitude of extreme events have changed over time.
并测试极端事件的频率和规模随时间变化的程度。
Over the past decade, the emerging field of extreme event attribution has used these tools to help researchers find strong evidence of climate change's relationship to changing events like heat,
在过去的10年里，新兴的极端事件归因领域利用这些工具帮助研究人员找到了气候变化与变化事件之间关系的有力证据，比如热浪、
as well as tropical cyclones, wildfires, sea ice coverage, and flooding.
热带气旋、山火、海冰覆盖和洪水。
By combining observational records with climate models and our growing knowledge of how global warming affects Earth's natural processes,
通过将观测记录与气候模型以及我们对全球变暖如何影响地球自然过程的日益增长的知识结合起来，
we're also getting better at distinguishing between the roles that human influence on the climate system and climate variability play in specific climate events.
我们也越来越善于区分人类对气候系统的影响和气候变化在特定气候事件中所起的作用。
Being able to attribute specific climate events to climate crisis is extremely useful on many fronts.
能够将特定的气候事件归因于气候危机在许多方面都非常有用。
For one, it can help researchers develop better climate models that can then be used by governments to inform climate action plans.
首先，它可以帮助研究人员开发出更好的气候模型，供政府用于制定气候行动计划。
It can also help us better understand the impact we're having on the climate and be better equipped to brace for these impacts.
它还可以帮助我们更好地了解我们对气候的影响，更好地准备应对这些影响。
A lot of our infrastructure, a lot of our planning is, is designed around, statistical analyses that assume stationarity in the climate system.
我们的很多基础设施，我们的很多规划，都是围绕着假设气候系统稳定的统计分析而设计的。
If the global warming that's already happened has already changed the odds of those extremes,
如果已经发生的全球变暖已经改变了这些极端的可能性，
then everything that we've designed and built based on that, there's risk of those thresholds being exceeded.
然后，我们基于此设计和构建的所有东西，都有超过这些阈值的风险。
The infrastructure in many communities, from sidewalks to levees to storm surge barriers,
许多地方的基础设施，包括人行道、堤坝和风暴潮屏障，
is built and managed based on the probability of the recurrence of climatic extremes.
都是根据极端气候重现的概率建立和管理的。
For cities sitting on a floodplain, the likelihood of a major flood happening in a given year will often determine how resilient their levees and dams must be.
对于坐落在涝原上的城市来说，一年内发生大洪水的可能性往往决定了他们的堤坝必须有多大的适应性。
If a city uses the 100-year floodplain as its threshold,
如果一座城市以百年一遇的洪泛平原为门槛，
that means that its levees and dams are built to anticipate the 1% chance that a major flood could happen in any given year.
这意味着这里的防洪堤和水坝的建设预计，任何一年发生大洪水的可能性为1%。
But the probability of these thresholds being exceeded is changing, and the fact is that too many communities just aren't adequately prepared.
但超过这些门槛的可能性正在改变，事实是，太多的地方并没有做好充分的准备。
Extreme events don't just affect and disrupt essential infrastructure.
极端事件不仅仅影响和破坏重要的基础设施。
They can have an outsized effect on public health, our food supply, and our global economy.
它们可以对公众健康、食品供应和全球经济产生巨大的影响。
The idea is that by being better able to know what to expect from the climate crisis,
我们的想法是，通过更好地了解气候危机会带来什么，
the world can brace for the worst while making informed decisions to stop the worst from happening.
世界就可以做好最坏的准备，同时做出明智的决定，阻止最坏的情况发生。
We see it year after year in the US and around the world.
我们在美国和世界各地年复一年地看到它。
We're living with a world where unprecedented, extreme events are more likely. They're happening more often.
我们生活在一个史无前例的极端事件更有可能发生的世界里，它们发生得更频繁了。
We're living with that now.
它们伴随着我们现在的生活。
And the impacts of those extremes are growing the cost that we're bearing.
这些极端的影响正在增加我们所承受的代价。
While extreme event attribution is helping us more confidently connect the dots between climate change and individual weather events,
虽然极端事件归因有助于我们更好地将气候变化和个别天气事件联系起来，
it's still a very new field and there's a lot to learn.
但这仍然是一个非常新的领域，有很多东西需要学习。
Check out our video here on how scientists are modeling a world without clouds.
请查看我们的视频，看看科学家们是如何模拟一个没有云的世界的。
Don't forget to subscribe to Seeker, and as always, thanks for watching.
别忘了订阅《科学探秘之旅》哦，还是那句话，谢谢收看。
