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It's crucial to realize that the rate of progress doesn't matter, because any progress is enough to get us into the end zone.
我们要知道这个进程的速度并不重要，因为任何进程都足够让我们走进死胡同。
We don't need Moore's law to continue. We don't need exponential progress. We just need to keep going.
甚至不需要考虑摩尔定律，也不需要用指数函数来衡量，这一切顺其自然都会发生。
The second assumption is that we will keep going.
第二个假设是，我们会一直创新。
We will continue to improve our intelligent machines.
我们会继续改进我们的智能机器。
And given the value of intelligence -- I mean, intelligence is either the source of everything we value or we need it to safeguard everything we value.
由于智慧的价值就是--提供我们所珍爱的事物，或是用于保护我们所珍视的一切。
It is our most valuable resource. So we want to do this. We have problems that we desperately need to solve.
智慧就是我们最有价值的资源。所以我们想继续革新它。因为我们有很多需要迫切解决的问题。
We want to cure diseases like Alzheimer's and cancer. We want to understand economic systems.
我们想要治愈像阿兹海默症和癌症这样的疾病，我们想要了解经济系统。
We want to improve our climate science. So we will do this, if we can.
我们想要改善我们的气候科学，所以只要可能，我们就会将革新继续下去。
The train is already out of the station, and there's no brake to pull.
而且革新的列车早已驶出，车上却没有刹车。
Finally, we don't stand on a peak of intelligence, or anywhere near it, likely. And this really is the crucial insight.
第三种假设是：人类没有登上智慧的巅峰，甚至连接近可能都谈不上。这个想法十分关键。
This is what makes our situation so precarious, and this is what makes our intuitions about risk so unreliable.
这就是为什么我们所处的环境是很危险的，这也是为什么我们对风险的直觉是不可靠的。
Now, just consider the smartest person who has ever lived.
现在，请大家想一下谁是世界上最聪明的人。
On almost everyone's shortlist here is John von Neumann.
几乎每个人的候选名单里都会有约翰·冯·诺伊曼。
I mean, the impression that von Neumann made on the people around him,
冯·诺伊曼留给周围人的印象就是
and this included the greatest mathematicians and physicists of his time, is fairly well-documented.
他是那个时代当中最杰出的数学家和物理学家，这些都是完好的记录在案的。
If only half the stories about him are half true, there's no question he's one of the smartest people who has ever lived.
即使他的故事里有一半是假的，都没有人会质疑他仍然是世界上最聪明的人之一。
So consider the spectrum of intelligence. Here we have John von Neumann.
那么，让我们来看看智慧谱线吧。现在我们有了约翰·冯·诺伊曼。
And then we have you and me. And then we have a chicken.
还有我们大家。另外还有一只鸡。
