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In front of millions of people each of them think they are an expert on what are good baseball plaers
有几百万人评价他们的一举一动 他们中的每一个人都认为 他们是成为优秀棒球运动员方面的专家
They had statistics attached to every move they made on their job
他们做的每一件事都有数据统计
And yet they were misvalued because the wider world was blind to their luck
但他们却被错估了 因为这个世界忽视了他们的运气成分
So I think you have to ask if a professional athlete paid millions of dollars a year can be misvalued who can't be?
所以你不得不问 如果一个百万美元身价的 职业球员可以被错估 那谁不会被错估呢？
If the supposedly pure meritocracy of professional sports can't distinguish between lucky and good, who can?
如果完全奉行精英主义的职业体坛 无法区分好运和优异 谁又能够区分呢？
The Moneyball story has practical implications
《点球成金》这个故事具有实际意义
If you use better data, you can find better values there are always market inefficiencies to exploit, and so on
如果你使用更好的数据 你可以找到更好的价值 总会存在价值有待挖掘的市场低效配置 等等
But it has a broader and less practical message don't be deceived by life's outcomes
但它有一个更广泛而不那么实际的信息 不要被生活的结果蒙骗
Life's outcomes, while not entirely random have a huge amount of luck baked into them
生活的结果 虽不是完全随机的 却掺杂了很多运气成分在其中
Above all, recognize that if you have had success you have also had luck, and with luck comes obligation
最重要的 是要认识到 如果你获得成功 你也同时曾获得好运 而运气带来义务
You owe a debt, and not just to your Gods
你欠了一笔债 不只是欠你的神
You owe a debt to the unlucky
你也欠那些没你那么好运的人的债
I make this point because—along with this speech it is something that will be easy for you to forget
我特别提出这一点 是因为和这个演讲一样 这将是你很容易遗忘的东西
I now live in Berkeley, California
我现在住在加州伯克利
A few years ago, just a few blocks from my home a pair of researchers in the Cal psychology department staged an experiment
几年前 就在离我家几个街区远的地方 加大心理系的 几个研究人员搞了一个实验
They began by grabbing students like you to use like lab rats
他们像抓小白鼠一样 找来了一批学生
Then they broke the students into teams, segregated by sex
然后他们给学生分组 按性别分开
Three men, or three women, per team
每组三个男生 或者三个女生
Then they put these teams of three into a room and arbitrarily assigned one member of the team to be the leader
然后他们让这样的小组进到房间里 然后随机选取三人中的一个作为组长
Then they gave them some complicated moral problem to solve say what should be done about academic cheating or how to regulate drinking on campus
然后他们让他们处理各种复杂的道德问题 比如说应该如何对待学术造假 或者如何控制校园酗酒问题
