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And it seems to me that the first question
我的看法是，
is entirely a biology question,
第一个问题完全是生物学的问题，
and it's extremely hard to answer.
这是非常难回答。
One has to be very speculative,
一个人必须非常投机，
and many of my colleagues would say that we should not do this speculation,
和我的许多同事会说，我们不应该做这种推测，
that we should simply keep our counsel until we know more.
我们应该简单地保持沉默，直到我们了解更多。
I say that's nonsense.
我觉得这是一派胡言。
I say we absolutely are irresponsible if we stay silent on this.
保持沉默，绝对是不负责任的。
We need to give our best guess as to the time frame,
我们需要给我们最好的猜测有时间框架，
in order to give people a sense of proportion
以便使人们有个概念，
so that they can assess their priorities.
使他们能够评估他们的优先事项。
So, I say that we have a 50/50 chance
所以，我说，从我们应用强健老鼠再生的科技
of reaching this RHR milestone,
的十五年内，我们有百分之五十的机会
robust human rejuvenation, within 15 years from the point
实现强健人类再生科技
that we get to robust mouse rejuvenation.
这个重要的里程碑。
15 years from the robust mouse.
强健老鼠再生的科技应用的十五年内，
The public's perception will probably be somewhat better than that.
人们的看法可能会变好。
The public tends to underestimate how difficult scientific things are.
因为人们往往低估的科学进步的困难性。
So they'll probably think it's five years away.
因此，他们很可能会认为只需五年。
They'll be wrong, but that actually won't matter too much.
他们可能是错误的，但实际上这不太重要。
And finally, of course, I think it's fair to say
最后，当然，我认为公众对于老龄化
that a large part of the reason why the public is so ambivalent about aging now
的看法这么的矛盾的主要原因，
is the global trance I spoke about earlier, the coping strategy.
是我刚才谈到的全球恍惚的应对策略。
That will be history at this point,
这将是历史性的一刻，
because it will no longer be possible to believe that aging is inevitable in humans,
因为公众将不再认为老化是人类不可避免的，
since it's been postponed so very effectively in mice.
因为它已经非常有效地在小老鼠体内被推迟。
So we're likely to end up with a very strong change in people's attitudes,
因此，我们很可能会看到人们的观念有了巨大变化，
and of course that has enormous implications.
而这将会具有极大的影响。
So in order to tell you now how we're going to get these mice,
为了现在要告诉你我们要如何得到这些老鼠，
I'm going to add a little bit to my description of aging.
我要补充一点我对老化的描述。
I'm going to use this word "damage"
我会用“损害”这个词来表示
to denote these intermediate things that are caused by metabolism
所有由新陈代谢中阶段造成的东西，
and that eventually cause pathology.
而最终导致不可避免的死亡。
Because the critical thing about this
因为这个关键的是，
is that even though the damage only eventually causes pathology,
尽管这些损害只有在最终才会造成不可避免的死亡，
the damage itself is caused ongoing-ly throughout life, starting before we're born.
它们是从我们出生之前就开始累积的东西，我们整个人生它们都不断累积。
But it is not part of metabolism itself.
但是这些损害不是新陈代谢的一部分，
And this turns out to be useful.
这一点对我们来说是有益的。
Because we can re-draw our original diagram this way.
因为这样我们可以重新绘制我们的原始图。
We can say that, fundamentally, the difference between gerontology and geriatrics
我们可以说，老年学和老年病学之间根本区别就是，
is that gerontology tries to inhibit the rate
老年学试图抑制新陈代谢，
at which metabolism lays down this damage.
这些“损害”累积的速度。
And I'm going to explain exactly what damage is
我等一下会准确地解释我所谓
in concrete biological terms in a moment.
的“损害”在生物学里指的是什么。
And geriatricians try to hold back the sands of time
老年病学呢，就试图阻止
by stopping the damage converting into pathology.
这些“损害”所带来的的后果，
And the reason it's a losing battle
比如说死亡。这是一个败仗，
is because the damage is continuing to accumulate.
因为损害只会继续积累。
So there's a third approach, if we look at it this way.
如果我们这样看的话，有第三种办法。
We can call it the "engineering approach,"
我们可以把它叫做工程方法，
and I claim that the engineering approach is within range.
我声称工程方法是在人类的科技，技术范围之内。
The engineering approach does not intervene in any processes.
该工程方法不会干预任何过程。
It does not intervene in this process or this one.
它不会干预这个过程，也不干预这一个。
And that's good because it means that it's not a losing battle,
这很好，因为这意味着这不是一个败仗，
and it's something that we are within range of being able to do,
并且它是在我们现在的范围之内能够做到的事情，
because it doesn't involve improving on evolution.
因为它不涉及对人类进化改善。
The engineering approach simply says,
该工程方法只是表示，
"Let's go and periodically repair all of these various types of damage --
“我们定期修复所有的这些不同类型的损害 –
not necessarily repair them completely, but repair them quite a lot,
他们不一定完全修复，
so that we keep the level of damage down below the threshold
但修复的足以让我们继续避免
that must exist, that causes it to be pathogenic."
一个会造成导致死亡或生病的程度。”
We know that this threshold exists,
我们知道这个门槛程度的存在，
because we don't get age-related diseases until we're in middle age,
因为我们只有当我们在中年时才会得到与年龄有关的疾病，
even though the damage has been accumulating since before we were born.
即使损害已经从我们诞生时就开始累积了。
Why do I say that we're in range? Well, this is basically it.
为什么我说，在人类近期的技术范围内呢？这基本上就是原因。
The point about this slide is actually the bottom.
这图片的重点在底部。
If we try to say which bits of metabolism are important for aging,
如果我们试图说新陈代谢的那个部分才是对老化过程有着重要的影响，
we will be here all night, because basically all of metabolism
那我们可能要在这里呆一整晚，
is important for aging in one way or another.
因为基本上新陈代谢的每个组件都对老化有影响。
