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18 minutes is an absolutely brutal time limit,
十八分钟是一个非常紧的时间限制，
so I'm going to dive straight in, right at the point
因此我直入主题，讲重点的，
where I get this thing to work.
我将马上开始。
Here we go. I'm going to talk about five different things.
好，我要谈五个不同的事情。
I'm going to talk about why defeating aging is desirable.
一，我要谈谈为什么抗老化是可行的。
I'm going to talk about why we have to get our shit together,
二，我要谈谈为什么我们必须打起精神，
and actually talk about this a bit more than we do.
多讨论这个课题，并且发觉我们应该指望战胜老化。
I'm going to talk about feasibility as well, of course.
当然，三，我也会谈谈战胜老化的可行性。
I'm going to talk about why we are so fatalistic
四，我要谈谈为什么我们在人类抗老化上采取的行动这么的认命，
about doing anything about aging.
以为都是注定的。
And then I'm going spend perhaps the second half of the talk
然后，第五，我也许在这个节目的下半段的时间谈谈
talking about, you know, how we might actually be able to prove that fatalism is wrong,
我们如何证明这个对战胜老化漠不关心以及以为是注定的心态是错误的，
namely, by actually doing something about it.
并且实际上做点什么事来纠正这个错误。
I'm going to do that in two steps.
这第五点，我会用两个步骤来谈论。
The first one I'm going to talk about is
第一个步骤是
how to get from a relatively modest amount of life extension --
如何从一个相对适中的延长寿命治疗科技 -
which I'm going to define as 30 years, applied to people
我这就把它定义为可延长三十年寿命，
who are already in middle-age when you start --
并且在已经是中年年龄的人开始应用 –
to a point which can genuinely be called defeating aging.
直到一个能真正被称为战胜老化问题的程度。
Namely, essentially an elimination of the relationship between
也就是说，实质上消除了你多大年纪，
how old you are and how likely you are to die in the next year --
以及你在下一年死去或
or indeed, to get sick in the first place.
生病的可能性之间的关系。
And of course, the last thing I'm going to talk about
最后一件事第五件事情，
is how to reach that intermediate step,
第二个步骤我要谈的是如何实现过度步骤，
that point of maybe 30 years life extension.
那个能给我们每一个人延长三十年寿命的治疗科技。
So I'm going to start with why we should.
好，我就从为什么要延长人类的寿命开始。
Now, I want to ask a question.
现在，我想问一个问题。
Hands up: anyone in the audience who is in favor of malaria?
观众席里有谁赞成疟疾是有利的？请举手。
That was easy. OK.
好，这很简单。
OK. Hands up: anyone in the audience
行。行。请不知道疟疾
who's not sure whether malaria is a good thing or a bad thing?
是好事还是坏事的人举手？
OK. So we all think malaria is a bad thing.
好。所以，我们都认为，疟疾是一件坏事。
That's very good news, because I thought that was what the answer would be.
这是一个非常好的消息，因为我原以为这就是答案。
Now the thing is, I would like to put it to you
现在我希望你们想一想
that the main reason why we think that malaria is a bad thing
我们认为疟疾是一件坏事主要的原因，
is because of a characteristic of malaria that it shares with aging.
是因为疟疾和老化有着共同的特征。
And here is that characteristic.
那个特征就是两者都杀死人。
The only real difference is that aging kills considerably more people than malaria does.
唯一真正的区别是，老龄化杀死的人数比疟疾杀死的多许多。
Now, I like in an audience, in Britain especially,
现在，我喜欢观众，尤其是在英国的观众，
to talk about the comparison with foxhunting,
比较一下老化和打猎狐狸。
which is something that was banned after a long struggle,
打猎狐狸是是经过长期斗争
by the government not very many months ago.
不久前被政府禁止的活动。
I mean, I know I'm with a sympathetic audience here,
我的意思是，虽然我知道富有同情心的观众应该大多数都反对打猎狐狸，
but, as we know, a lot of people are not entirely persuaded by this logic.
但我们知道，很多人并不是完全被这个逻辑说服。
And this is actually a rather good comparison, it seems to me.
在我看来，这其实和老化是一个不错的比较。
You know, a lot of people said, "Well, you know,
你知道，很多郊外的人说：“你们这些
city boys have no business telling us rural types what to do with our time.
住在城市的人没有权利告诉我们什么活动可以做什么东西不能做。
It's a traditional part of the way of life,
这是我们住在郊外的人的传统生活方式的一部分，
and we should be allowed to carry on doing it.
我们应该有权力继续做它。
It's ecologically sound; it stops the population explosion of foxes."
这是促进生态健全的，它控制了狐狸数量爆涨。”
But ultimately, the government prevailed in the end,
但是，政府最终占了上风，
because the majority of the British public,
因为大多数的英国公众，
and certainly the majority of members of Parliament,
还有国会多数成员，
came to the conclusion that it was really something
得出的结论，就是这打猎狐狸
that should not be tolerated in a civilized society.
是一个文明社会所不能容忍的活动。
And I think that human aging shares
我认为，人类衰老也有这些特点，
all of these characteristics in spades.
它是一个不能容忍的活动。
What part of this do people not understand?
这有什么难明白的？
It's not just about life, of course --
这当然不只是生命，
it's about healthy life, you know --
这也是有关可以健康的生活下去。
getting frail and miserable and dependent is no fun,
因为无论人们觉得死亡是否好玩是否应该容忍，
whether or not dying may be fun.
身体越来越衰弱，悲惨地依赖别人一点都不好玩。
So really, this is how I would like to describe it.
因此，其实这就是我想要对它的人类衰老描述。
It's a global trance.
这是一个全球性恍惚。
These are the sorts of unbelievable excuses
这是人们对老龄化作出了
that people give for aging.
种种令人难以置信的借口。
And, I mean, OK, I'm not actually saying
而且，我的意思是，好吧，我不是在说
that these excuses are completely valueless.
这些借口是完全没有价值。
There are some good points to be made here,
这些借口也有一些好的积极方面。
things that we ought to be thinking about, forward planning
比如说我们应该思考的种种问题，有规划些，
so that nothing goes too -- well, so that we minimize
来尽量减少我们在战胜老化路途上
the turbulence when we actually figure out how to fix aging.
的不必要的动荡。
But these are completely crazy, when you actually
但只要如果你真正衡量它们，
remember your sense of proportion.
这些借口都是完全疯了！
You know, these are arguments; these are things that
你知道，这些借口的论点
would be legitimate to be concerned about.
是合理的，值得去关注。
But the question is, are they so dangerous --
但问题是，这些论点有没有那么危险?
these risks of doing something about aging --
战胜老化的风险
that they outweigh the downside of doing the opposite,
有没有高过
namely, leaving aging as it is?
不理会人类老化的代价？
Are these so bad that they outweigh
难道这些修复老化的风险如此糟糕，
condemning 100,000 people a day to an unnecessarily early death?
比每天超过十万人面对早死的命运还糟糕？
