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Fortunately, Europe had the benefit of the social safety net. It held down European growth rates in good times, but it served its purpose in the downturn and the recession in Euroland turned out to be less severe than expected. Now that the fears of an economic collapse have subsided, the European Union is showing some signs of political revival. For instance, the European Central Bank has effectively bailed out the Irish banking system and Ireland has resoundingly endorsed Lisbon Treaty. So perhaps I should not be too pessimistic about Europe.
幸运的是，欧洲受益于社会安全网。它在适当的时候使欧洲的增长率得到了控制。它在控制增长率方面虽有成效，但最终表明，欧元区增长率的降低对衰退并没有起到预想的作用。由于对经济崩溃的担忧已经减弱，欧盟出现了政治复苏的迹象。例如，欧洲央行已有效地挽救了爱尔兰银行系统，而爱尔兰也成功地通过了《里斯本条约》。因此，我们对欧洲也不应该太过悲观。
The fact that the financial crisis is having different long-term impacts on different countries may turn out to be more of a problem. In the short term, all countries were negatively affected, but in the long term there will be winners and losers. Although the range of uncertainties for the actual course of events is very wide, shifts in relative positions can be predicted with greater certainty. To put it bluntly, the United States stands to lose the most and China is poised to emerge as the greatest winner. The extent of the shift is already exceeding most expectations. There will be significant changes in the relative positions of other countries as well but from a global perspective the one between the United States and China is the most significant.
金融危机对不同国家产生的长期影响具有差异性，这一点最终将使问题更突出。在短期内，所有国家所受的都是不利影响，但从长远来说，终将会有贏家和输家之分。虽然不确定因素涵盖的实际范围很广泛，但我们可以预见相对位置一定会发生变化。说得大胆一些，美国将会输得最多，而中国则势必成为最大的贏家。如此巨大的转变，已出乎大多数人的意料。而其他国家的相对位置也会发生很大的变化。但从全球的角度看，美国与中国之间的变化才具有最重要的意义。
