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经济学人:美国大选如何影响股市(2)

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  • Investors appear to be especially keen on downside protection around this election.
  • 在这次大选期间,投资者似乎尤其热衷于“下档保护”。
  • In September Cameron Crise, a strategist at Bloomberg, wrote that VIX futures markets have "never had an event risk command this sort of premium".
  • 今年9月,彭博(美国财经资讯公司)策略师卡梅伦·克里兹写道,VIX期货市场“从未有过事件风险导致如此高的溢价”。
  • Even more unusually, VIX futures prices are elevated not just around the date of the election,
  • 更不寻常的是,VIX期货价格不仅在大选前后上涨了,
  • but for the months between the vote on November 3rd and the inauguration on January 21st.
  • 在11月3日投票到1月21日就职典礼之间的几个月里也在上涨。
  • There are plenty of reasons for investors to worry about post-election chaos: the coronavirus pandemic means an enormous number of voters
  • 投资者有很多理由担心选举后的混乱局面:新冠肺炎这一流行病意味着今年将有大量选民
  • will opt to avoid crowded polling stations this year and send their ballots in by post instead.
  • 会选择避开拥挤的投票站转向邮寄投票。
  • These votes can take longer to count, raising the prospect of a period without a clear winner.
  • 这些选票可能需要更长的时间来计票,增加了一段时期内获胜者不明的可能性。
  • Even once a victor is declared, a slew of lawsuits may follow.
  • 即使结果出来了,随之而来的也可能是一系列的诉讼。
  • The uncertainty is exacerbated by President Donald Trump's suggestion that postal ballots may be fraudulent, and his reluctance to say that he will accept the election result.
  • 唐纳德·特朗普总统暗示邮寄选票可能是伪造的,而且表明自己将不接受选举结果,使得不确定性加剧。
  • The nearest guide to market reaction in such a situation would be to look at the contest between Al Gore and George Bush in 2000,
  • 要了解市场在这种情况下的反应,最直接的方法就是看看2000年阿尔·戈尔和乔治·布什之间的竞争。
  • which was too close to call on election day and involved recounts and lawsuits.
  • 当时在选举日,双方势利难分,还涉及重新计票和诉讼。
  • Markets dropped by 1.6% the day after the election as it became clear there was no decisive winner.
  • 大选后的第二天,由于尚未确定获胜者,市场下跌了1.6%。
  • The S&P 500 sank by more than 8% by the end of the year—though at least some of that probably re-flects the beginnings of the dotcom bust.
  • 到今年年底,S&P 500下跌了超过8%——尽管其中至少有一部分可能再现了互联网泡沫破裂之初的情形。
  • A happier scenario for investors—and citizens more broadly—would see a clear victor emerging on election day.
  • 更能让投资者和广大公民感到欣慰的结果是,获胜者在选举日当天就被选出。
  • And it may be that investors have begun to think this has become more likely than they did mere days ago.
  • 或许投资者们已经感觉到了较之前几天这种可能性的加大。
  • Though the news that Mr Trump had been diagnosed with covid-19 sent VIX futures higher on October 2nd, by the 7th futures maturing in November,
  • 虽然特朗普被诊断为新冠的消息在10月2日推高了VIX期货,
  • December and January had dropped below the level they had reached after the first presidential debate on September 29th.
  • 但到11月、12月和1月到期的7个期货价格已经低于9月29日第一次总统辩论之后的水平,
  • That might be thanks to a flurry of polls putting Joe Biden, Mr Trump's Democratic challenger, even further ahead.
  • 这大概得益于一项结果为“特朗普的民主党竞争者乔·拜登领先”的民调。
  • As the campaign moves into the home straight, investors are betting on less, rather than more, chaos.
  • 随着大选接近尾声,投资者的押注混乱并没有愈演愈烈,相反在逐渐平息。


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1.inauguration 就职典礼

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Many African American families attended the inauguration of the country's first black president.

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很多非洲裔美国家庭参加了美国第一位黑人总统的就职典礼Q#7xwrV]ivQ;

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2.opt to 选择

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Some boards opt to hand it over to a risk committee.

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一些董事会选择将这一问题交给某个风险委员会来处理SXhWcpSJ!2PGar.ePj%y

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重点单词   查看全部解释    
chaos ['keiɔs]

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n. 混乱,无秩序,混沌

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democratic [.demə'krætik]

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adj. 民主的,大众的,平等的

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victor ['viktə]

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n. 胜利者 Victor: 维克托(男子名)

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strategist ['strætidʒist]

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n. 战略家,军事家,策士

 
inauguration [in.ɔ:gju'reiʃən]

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n. 就职典礼,落成典礼,开幕仪式

 
decisive [di'saisiv]

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adj. 决定性的

 
uncertainty [ʌn'sə:tnti]

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n. 不确定,不可靠,半信半疑 (学术)不可信度; 偏差

 
enormous [i'nɔ:məs]

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adj. 巨大的,庞大的

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campaign [kæm'pein]

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n. 运动,活动,战役,竞选运动
v. 从事运

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contest ['kɔntest,kən'test]

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n. 竞赛,比赛
vt. 竞赛,争取

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