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经济学人:发烧预测(2)

时间:2020-04-03 16:04:00 编辑:Ceciliya 可可英语APP下载 | 可可官方微信:ikekenet

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Identifying individuals who are infected is important, in order to stop them passing the virus on.
鉴别谁是被感染者很重要，这样才能阻止他们传播病毒。

But temperature data can also be used to track the epidemic as it spreads.
但是温度数据也可被用来追踪疫情的传播。

This is the goal of Kinsa Health, a firm in San Francisco that has sold
这是旧金山一家名为Kinsa Health的公司的目标，

or donated more than 1m smartphone-connected thermometers to households in America.
该公司已经美国家庭出售或捐赠了一百多万个智能手机连接的温度计。

The phones these thermometers are linked to carry an app that transmits back to base each body-temperature recording which its user makes.
这些连接温度计的手机，配有应用程序，将用户的体温记录传回基地。

The app can then give simple medical advice
然后，该应用程序可以给出简单的医疗建议

(for example, based on age, sex and so on, does a user with a particular temperature need to see a doctor or not?)
（例如，根据年龄、性别等等，出于某种体温段的用户需不需要去看医生？）

The app also provides epidemic information about the neighbourhood, including such things as how badly local schools are affected.
该应用还提供了该地区的流行病信息，包括当地学校受影响的严重程度等。

Using its thermometers and apps, Kinsa has built up a trove of data on past fevers in America.
利用其温度计和应用，Kinsa收集了美国过去发烧病患的大量数据。

Besides being good for public health, this information has commercial value.
这些信息除了对公众健康有益外，还有商业价值。

One American pharmacy chain pays Kinsa for fever data in order to avoid particular stores selling out of things the feverish may wish to purchase.
一家美国连锁药店向Kinsa支付发烧数据的费用，以避免某些商店销售发烧患者可能想买的东西。

In the past, Kinsa's focus has been on influenza. But now the fear is that any elevated body temperature is the result of covid-19.
在过去，Kinsa的重点一直都是流感。但现在人们担心的是，任何体温升高都是covid-19导致的。

On March 18th the firm began posting relevant data, duly anonymised, but more or less in real time, on a website called Health Weather.
3月18日，该公司开始在一家名为Health Weather的网站上发布相关数据，这些数据都是匿名的，但或多或少是实时的。

In contrast to this "nowcasting", a government site called FluView,
和这种“即时预报”相反，一家名为FluView的政府网站

which is run by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention, relies on sources like hospitals to provide it with data,
（由疾病控制及预防中心运营）依赖医院等渠道提供数据，

and tends to lag an epidemic by about two weeks.
并且对疫情的通报会延迟两周。

Once a fever kicks in, people tend to take their temperature frequently.
一旦发烧，人们就会频繁地量体温。

Kinsa therefore knows a lot about how an epidemic is progressing, and how severe it is, in lots of different places around America.
因此，Kinsa非常了解在美国各地的许多地方，流行病是如何发展以及有多严重。

In the past, this has enabled it to make accurate forecasts of disease burden down to the level of individual zip codes.
以前，这使它能够准确预测疾病负担，能到达精确到各个邮政编码的水平。

According to Nirav Shah of Stanford University, who advises the firm, such forecasts can look up to 20 weeks into the future for influenza.
斯坦福大学的Nirav Shah是该公司的顾问，据他说，这样的预测可以预测未来20周的流感。

Covid-19 is not influenza, of course, and presumably has different patterns of spread.
当然，Covid-19不是流感，可能有不同的传播方式。

But even before these have been worked out properly, data from Kinsa's remote thermometers are flagging up useful warnings.
但即使在这些数据被正确计算出来之前，来自Kinsa的远程温度计的数据已经标记出了有用的警告。

As The Economist went to press, atypically high numbers of fevers had popped up in much of peninsular Florida.
就在本期《经济学人》付印之际，佛罗里达半岛的大部分地区出现了罕见的高发病例。

Time, then, for Floridians to get off the beaches and start keeping their distance from one another.
那么，佛罗里达人是时候离开海滩，开始彼此保持距离了。

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1.transmit 传输；传播
Parents can unwittingly transmit their own fears to their children.
父母自己的恐惧有可能在无意中感染了孩子。
2.affect 影响
The south of the country was worst affected by the drought.
该国南方旱情最严重。
3.rely on 依赖
We had to rely on a compass and a lot of luck to get here.
我们不得不依靠指南针和不错的运气找到这儿来。
4.properly 正确的
Make sure the letter is properly addressed.
一定要正确书写信上的地址。

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重点单词		查看全部解释
affect	[ə'fekt]	想一想再看 vt. 影响，作用，感动	联想记忆 X 单词affect 联想记忆： af一再，fect做，力求－力求使人做－影响
track	[træk]	想一想再看 n. 小路，跑道，踪迹，轨道，乐曲 v. 跟踪
prevention	[pri'venʃən]	想一想再看 n. 阻止，妨碍，预防
avoid	[ə'vɔid]	想一想再看 vt. 避免，逃避	联想记忆 X 单词avoid 联想记忆： a朝向，void空－空城计－避开
accurate	['ækjurit]	想一想再看 adj. 准确的，精确的	联想记忆 X 单词accurate 联想记忆： ac+cur关心+ate→一再关心，弄精确为止→准确的，精确的
transmit	[trænz'mit]	想一想再看 vt. 传输，传送，代代相传，传达 vi. (	联想记忆 X 单词transmit 联想记忆： trans横＋mit=send送，放出→横送过去→寄送；传达
compass	['kʌmpəs]	想一想再看 n. 指南针，圆规 vt. 图谋，包围，达成	联想记忆 X 单词compass 联想记忆： com共同，pass通过－指南针的针，和磁场的线，共同通过一个方向。
base	[beis]	想一想再看 n. 基底，基础，底部，基线，基数，(棒球)垒，[化]碱
relevant	['relivənt]	想一想再看 adj. 相关的，切题的，中肯的	联想记忆 X 单词relevant 联想记忆： re再→lev提高,举起,变轻+ant→再举起→有关的;中肯的
tend	[tend]	想一想再看 v. 趋向，易于，照料，护理