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经济学人:西班牙经济最糟的情况即将结束

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Europe Spain's economy The worst may be over
欧洲西班牙经济最糟的情况即将结束

Mariano Rajoy predicts economic joy, but Spain still has a long way to go
马里亚诺?拉霍伊预测经济形势可喜，但是西班牙仍然任重道远。

THE Prado museum, lined with works by Goya, Velazquez and El Greco, is a sanctuary of peace in busy centralMadrid.
陈列着戈雅，委拉兹开斯，格列柯等人作品的普拉多博物馆无疑是喧闹的马德里市中心最宁静的天堂。

When the museum advertised for eleven gallery attendants recently, it also seemed the perfect refuge fromSpain's job-starved economy: 18,700 people applied.
尤其是当18700人申请它登出的11个画廊服务员招聘广告时，在导致西班牙大面积失业的经济危机中它似乎也成为了完美的避难所。

As Spain timidly emerges from a double-dip recession that has ripped 7% out of GDP over five years, job-seekers remain desperate.
由于在过去5年的双底衰退中胆怯的西班牙国内生产总值已经降低了7%，求职者们仍然显得非常绝望。

Unemployment is stuck at 26% and emigration is picking up.
失业率达到了26%，而且移民的人数也在持续增长。

So will the recovery create jobs and sendSpaininto a virtuous cycle of increased domestic consumption, a higher tax take, healthy public finances and more jobs?
所以经济复苏是否会带来更多工作并且将西班牙送入一个良性循环？持续增长的国内消费，更高的税收，公共医疗资金和更多的工作岗位。

Presenting next year's budget on September 30th, Cristobal Montoro, the budget minister, did not offer rapid relief.
9月30日在报告第二年财政预算时，预算部长克里斯托瓦尔蒙托罗并没有送出让人迅速解脱的消息。

Projected growth of 0.7% next year falls short of the government's own estimates for job creation.
预期的0.7%的增长将会低于政府自身对明年增加就业机会的估计。

And with a planned deficit of 5.8% of GDP adding to an already worrying debt pile, stimulus spending is impossible.
而且随着一个有计划的占GDP5.8%的财政赤字增添到一堆已经很让人担忧的债务上，刺激消费已经是不可能的了。

Civil-service pay is being frozen for a fourth year in a row and pensions will not keep up with inflation, yet the public debt will still reach almost 100% of GDP.
公务员薪金已经连续第四年被冻结而且养老金即将跟不上通货膨胀的势头，但是国债仍然将接近国内生产总值的100%。

Spanish companies and households are busy trying to pay off their own debts.
西班牙企业家和民众都忙着还清他们自己的债务。

After taking a 41 billion ($55.6 billion) bail-out last year,Spain's banks find it safer to lend to the government than to business.
在去年得到了410亿欧元（556亿美元）的经济援助之后，西班牙的银行发现借钱给政府比借钱给商人更安全。

Even so,Spain's story is now one of hope.
即使是这样，西班牙的形势现在仍然是存在希望的。

Mariano Rajoy, the prime minister, says the third quarter will show a return to growth.
首相拉霍伊表示第三季度将会呈现出恢复增长的态势。

Deep in the real economy, exciting things are happening.
深入到现实经济中，一些令人激动的事正在发生。

Car plants are humming, taking work from less competitive factories in Europe.
汽车工厂都是非常活跃的，并且正从欧洲那些缺少竞争力的工厂手中争得业务。

Retail sales figures are improving elsewhere.
在其它方面零售数据也正在改善。

Even consumer credit has crept up in recent months.
甚至是贷款消费在最近几个月也在缓慢增长。

Recession inflicted a brutal cull on businesses, but those still standing are more efficient and productive than ever.
经济衰退对企业进行了一次残酷的淘汰，但是那些依然坚挺的企业比以往任何时候都更有效率和创造力。

Exports, spurred by Spain's new competitiveness, should grow more than 5% both this year and next, doubling their pre-recession weight in the economy.
由于西班牙新的竞争环境的鞭策，它的出口业在今明两年会得到超过5%的增长—这是经济衰退前的两倍数值。

With exports booming, the current account has swung into surplus.
随着出口业的蓬勃发展，往来账户已经开始变得有盈余。

Recovery in the European Union,Spain's main export market, will help further.
同时随着西班牙主要出口市场—欧盟的经济好转，将进一步地帮助西班牙经济复苏。

The stock market is soaring, with the Ibex-35 indicator gaining 11% in September.After a bruising 21 months in office, Mr Rajoy predicts economic happiness next year.
股市也在疯涨，9月Ibex-35指数上涨了11%。在办公室中度过了21个月难熬的日子之后，拉霍伊预测明年经济将大为好转。

His Popular Party (PP) has even seen a bounce in opinion polls.
民意调查显示他的人民党支持率甚至出现反弹。

But Javier Diaz-Gimenez, of the IESE business school, warns that the recovery is anaemic, fragile and unlikely to create jobs.
但是IESE商学院的哈维尔?迪亚斯—希门尼斯警告说这种复苏是无力的和脆弱的并且不太可能去创造更多工作。

Average GDP growth of 1%, he points out, would not see Spain return to pre-recession levels until 2021.
他指出平均国内生产总值只增长了1%，不太可能在2021年之前看到西班牙经济恢复到经济衰退前的水平。

The IMF sees 25% unemployment through to 2018.
国际货币基金组织（IMF）认为25%的失业率将持续到2018年。

The danger, warns Angel Laborda of the Funcas think-tank, is relaxation.
智库储蓄银行联合会的安格列拉博发出警告说政府的松懈是危险的。

Already he worries that this year's 6.5% deficit target will be missed.
他已经开始担心今年6.5%的财政赤字会被人们所忽视。

Overall fiscal pressure is relatively low for a country that wants a sophisticated welfare system.
总的来说一个国家的财政压力与它复杂的福利体系相比相对较低。

Structural reforms are still needed, he says, but Spain enters a two-year period of elections in 2014, sapping political courage.
他表示体制改革仍然是有必要的，但是西班牙在2014年即将进入一个为期2年的选举阶段，这有可能会削弱政府的勇气。

Overconfidence threatens to slow the fall in house prices, making it even harder to sell the 700,000 new homes left by the housing bubble that pitched Spain into recession.
过分的自负预示着房价下调将会变慢，这让由房地产泡沫遗留下来的70万余套房屋更难售出，这也是导致西班牙经济衰退的主要原因。

Fitch, a ratings agency, warns that at current rates of selling it will take six years to clear the overhang.
来自评价机构的菲奇警告说以当前的水平要将房屋的过剩量全部售出将需要6年。

Prices have fallen 30% or more from the peak, but Jesus Encinar of idealista.com, a property portal, sees a further 20% drop.
房价比顶峰时期已经下降了30%，但是来自idealista网站的房地产专家Jesus Encinar认为将来还会有20%的降价。

The next test for Mr Rajoy is pensions.
对于拉霍伊的下一个考验就是养老金。

A diet rich in olive oil, wine and fresh vegetables helps make Spaniards among the longest-living people in Europe.
既节制的又富有的包含着橄榄油，酒和新鲜蔬菜的饮食习惯帮助西班牙人民成为欧洲最长寿的人之一。

The baby-boomers will retire over the coming decade.
在接下来10年生育高峰期即将过去。

By 2050, the number of pensioners will have leapt from just over 9m to 15m; and the social-security system already loses the equivalent of 1.4% of GDP.
到2050年，领取养老金的人数将从900万猛增到1500万;但同时社保体系却已经失去了相当于1.4%的国内生产总值的资金。

The previous government hiked the retirement age to 67, but that is not enough.
早先政府将退休年龄提高到67岁，但这并不足以解决问题。

To claim that the current system is sustainable is like saying smoking does not cause cancer, says Mr Diaz-Gimenez.
吉姆表示如果宣称现行体系是可维系下去的就像宣称吸烟不会导致癌症一样可笑。

The government has made bold proposals to calculate pensions according to life expectancy and the size of the state pension pot.
政府已经开始根据平均寿命和国家养老金的余额去分配养老金了。

But Mr Rajoy is under pressure to backtrack.
但是拉霍伊依然承担着走老路的压力。

Even the employers' federation has warned of pensioners' lost spending power.
即使雇主联合会已经警告过已经丧失消费能力的养老金领取者。

Labour reforms have helped to boost productivity, allowing employers and unions to opt for wage moderation rather than sackings.
劳务改革确实对提高生产效率有帮助，允许雇主们和公会去自行调整工资水平而不是一刀切。

More may be needed if jobs are to be created.
但如果有可能还是需要更多地工作机会。

Lowering, or scrapping, the minimum wage might help.
降低或者废除最低工资标准可能会有效果。

Taxes could also be cut, but only if public spending is cut.
税收也应该降低，但仅仅在公共花销也降低的情况下。

Luis de Guindos, the finance minister, says jobs will come when growth reaches 1%.
财政部长Luis de Guindos 表示当经济增长达到1%时将会有更多地工作。

Until then, the Prado museum remains a safe harbour.
在那之前，普拉多博物馆依然是一个安全的港湾。译者：曾擎禹校对：周雨晴

扫描二维码进行跟读打分训练

1.pick up 捡起

例句:We drove to the airport the next morning to pick up Susan.

我们第二天早晨开车去机场接苏姗。

2.add to 添加到

例句:The new film won't add to your credit.

这部新影片将不会增加你的声誉。

3.keep up with 紧跟;跟上

例句:Owing to his illness, peter couldn't keep up with the rest of the class and get badly behind.

由于生病，彼得没法跟上班级的其他同学，他落后一大截了。

4.pay off 付清

例句:It would take him the rest of his life to pay off that loan.

他得用余生来还清那笔贷款。

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重点单词		查看全部解释
decade	['dekeid]	想一想再看 n. 十年	联想记忆 X 单词decade 联想记忆： dec+ade表名词,表示“状态，物品”参考：decagon十角形→十年
equivalent	[i'kwivələnt]	想一想再看 adj. 等价的，相等的 n. 相等物	联想记忆 X 单词equivalent 联想记忆： equ平等，val力量－力量平等的
competitiveness	[kəm'petitivnis]	想一想再看 n. 竞争能力
sophisticated	[sə'fistikeitid]	想一想再看 adj. 诡辩的，久经世故的，精密的，老练的，尖端的	联想记忆 X 单词sophisticated 联想记忆： sophist诡辩+icate+d→老于世故的；精致复杂的
unlikely	[ʌn'laikli]	想一想再看 adj. 不太可能的
bubble	['bʌbl]	想一想再看 n. 气泡，泡影 v. 起泡，冒泡
fragile	['frædʒail]	想一想再看 adj. 易碎的，脆的，精细的	联想记忆 X 单词fragile 联想记忆： flag＝fract 断裂，ile易…的－易碎的
sanctuary	['sæŋktjuəri]	想一想再看 n. 圣所，耶路撒冷的神殿，至圣所	联想记忆 X 单词sanctuary 联想记忆： sanct神圣+ary表名词，“人，场所，物”→圣堂；避难所
overall	[əuvə'rɔ:l]	想一想再看 adj. 全部的，全体的，一切在内的 adv.
budget	['bʌdʒit]	想一想再看 n. 预算 vt. 编预算，为 ... 做预算