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Utopian dystopia: What will humans do if artificial intelligence solves everything?
乌托邦式的反乌托邦：如果人工智能解决了一切问题，人类要做什么？
When technology has solved humanity’s deepest problems, what is left to do?
当科技解决了人类最深层次的问题之后，还有什么可做？
That is one question considered in a new publication by Nick Bostrom, a philosopher at the University of Oxford, whose last book argued that humanity faced a one-in-six chance of being wiped out in the next 100 years, perhaps owing to the development of dangerous forms of artificial intelligence (AI).
这是牛津大学哲学家尼克·博斯特罗姆在一本新书中考虑的一个问题，博斯特罗姆的上一本书认为，人类有六分之一的概率会在未来100年内灭绝，这可能是因为危险型人工智能的发展。
In Mr Bostrom's latest book, "Deep Utopia", he considers a rather different outcome. What happens if AI goes extraordinarily well?
在博斯特罗姆的新书《深度乌托邦》中，他考虑了一个完全不同的结果。如果人工智能进展得非常顺利，会发生什么？
Under one scenario Mr Bostrom contemplates, the technology progresses to the point at which it can do all economically valuable work at near-zero cost.
在博斯特罗姆设想的一种情况下，人工智能进步到了可以几乎零成本完成所有有经济价值的工作的地步。
Under a yet more radical scenario, even tasks that you might think would be reserved for humans, such as parenting, can be done better by AI.
在一种更极端的情况下，即使是你认为是人类独有的任务，比如育儿，也可以由人工智能更好地完成。
"Positional goods", which boost the status of their owners, are also still likely to exist and are, by their nature, scarce.
“地位商品”可以提升所有者的地位，这种商品也可能仍然存在，而且从本质上讲，它们是稀缺的。
Even if AIs surpass humans in art, intellect, music and sport, humans will probably continue to derive value from surpassing their fellow humans, for example by having tickets to the hottest events.
即使人工智能在艺术、智力、音乐和体育方面超过人类，人类也可能继续从超越人类同胞中获得价值，例如，拥有最热门赛事的门票。
In 1977 Fred Hirsch, an economist, argued in "The Social Limits to Growth" that, as wealth increases, a greater fraction of human desire consists of positional goods.
1977年，经济学家弗雷德·赫希在《增长的社会极限》一书中指出，随着财富的增加，地位商品在人类欲望中所占的比例越来越大。
Time spent competing goes up, the price of such goods increases and so their share of GDP rises. This pattern may continue in an AI utopia.
花在竞争上的时间增加了，这类商品的价格也增加了，因此它们在GDP中的份额也增加了。这种模式可能会在人工智能乌托邦中继续下去。
Several groups in society today give us a sense of how future humans might spend their time.
当今社会中的几个群体让我们对未来人类可能如何度过他们的时间有了一点体会。
Aristocrats and bohemians enjoy the arts. Monastics live within themselves. Athletes spend their lives on sport. The retired dabble in all these pursuits.
贵族和波西米亚人喜欢艺术。僧侣们生活在自己的内心世界。运动员把他们的一生都花在体育运动上。退休的人所有这些爱好都沾一点。
These dynamics suggest a "paradox of progress". Although most humans want a better world, if tech becomes too advanced, they may lose purpose.
这些动态表明了一种“进步悖论”。虽然大多数人想要一个更美好的世界，但如果技术变得过于先进，他们可能会失去目标。
Mr Bostrom argues that most people would still enjoy activities that have intrinsic value, such as eating tasty food.
博斯特罗姆认为，大多数人仍然会喜欢有内在价值的活动，比如吃美味的食物。
Utopians, believing life had become too easy, might decide to challenge themselves, perhaps by colonising a new planet to try to re-engineer civilisation from scratch.
乌托邦主义者认为生活已经变得太容易了，他们可能会决定挑战自己，也许是去殖民一个新的星球，试图从头开始重新设计文明。
At some point, however, even such adventures might cease to feel worthwhile.
然而，在某个时候，即使是这样的冒险也可能失去了价值感。
It is an open question how long humans would be happy hopping between passions, as Peer does in "Permutation City".
人类通过不断地换爱好能快乐多久，就像佩尔在《置换城市》中的行为那样，这是一个悬而未决的问题。
Economists have long believed that humans have "unlimited wants and desires", suggesting there are endless variations on things people would like to consume.
经济学家长期以来一直认为，人类拥有“无限的愿望和欲望”，这意味着人们想要消费的东西有无穷无尽的变化。
With the arrival of an AI utopia, this would be put to the test. Quite a lot would ride on the result.
随着人工智能乌托邦的到来，这一点将受到考验。未来的很多事情将取决于考验的结果。
