评论
打印
Will the place that it finally settles in come November matter to the election?[qh]
它最终在11月落户的地方会对选举产生影响吗？[qh]
How people say they are feeling about the economy in an election year—alongside more direct measures of economic health, such as GDP growth and disposable income—has in the past been a good predictor of whom voters choose as president; a healthy economy and good sentiment strongly favor the incumbent.[qh]
过去，人们对大选年经济的看法--以及GDP增长和可支配收入等更直接的经济健康指标--曾很好地预测选民选择谁当总统；健康的经济和良好的情绪强烈有利于现任总统。[qh]
Despite all the abnormalities of 2020—a pandemic, national protests, a uniquely polarizing president—economic models that factored in both economic fundamentals and sentiment predicted the result and margin of that year’s presidential election quite accurately (and much more so than polling), according to an analysis by the political scientists John Sides, Chris Tausanovitch, and Lynn Vavreck.[qh]
根据政治学家约翰·赛德斯、克里斯·陶萨诺维奇和林恩·瓦夫雷克的一项分析，尽管2020年出现了各种反常现象--大流行、全国性的抗议活动、一位独特的两极分化的总统--但根据政治学家约翰·赛德斯、克里斯·陶萨诺维奇和林恩·瓦夫雷克的一项分析，同时考虑了经济基本面和情绪的经济模型非常准确地预测了当年总统选举的结果和优势(而且比民调要准确得多)。[qh]
It is of course possible that consumer sentiment is becoming a more performative metric than it used to be—a statement about who you are rather than how you really feel—and perhaps less reliable as a result.[qh]
当然，有可能消费者情绪正成为比过去更具表现力的指标--一种关于你是谁的声明，而不是你的真实感受--结果可能不那么可靠。[qh]
Still, the story that voters have in their heads about the economy clearly matters.[qh]
尽管如此，选民头脑中关于经济的故事显然很重要。[qh]
If that story were influenced solely by the prices at the pump and the grocery store or the number of well-paying jobs, then—absent another crisis—we could expect the mood to be buoyant this fall, significantly helping Biden’s prospects for reelection.[qh]
如果这个故事仅仅受到加油站和杂货店的价格或高薪工作岗位数量的影响，那么--如果没有另一场危机--我们可以预计今年秋天的气氛会很乐观，这对拜登连任的前景有很大帮助。[qh]
But the stories we tell ourselves are shaped by everything from the news we read to the political messages we hear to the identities we adopt.[qh]
但我们告诉自己的故事是由各种因素塑造的，从我们读到的新闻，到我们听到的政治信息，再到我们所采用的身份。[qh]
And, for better or worse, those stories have yet to be fully written.[qh]
而且，无论是好是坏，这些故事还没有完全写完。[qh]
