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演讲简介：
汉斯·罗素林曾在印度学习，那时，他意料到亚洲可以重夺其经济霸主地位。在TED印度，他用他神奇的泡泡图表来预测中印两国何时会赶超美国。
adj. 卑下的，谦逊的，粗陋的
vt. 使
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- Now, back to my projections. When will it catch up? I have to go back to very conventional graph.
- 好，回到我的预测。但两国何时能迎头赶上？我们必须使用传统图表。
- I will show income per person on this axis instead, poor down here, rich up there.
- 竖轴代表着人均收入，穷富递进相增。
- And then time here, from 1858 I start the world. And we shall see what will happen with these countries.
- 回溯到1858年，世界由此开始。让我们来观察下世界将会如何改变。
- You see, China under foreign domination actually lowered their income and came down to the Indian level here.
- 中国正处于半殖民半封建时期，而他们国民收入已降低至印度的水准。
- Whereas U.K. and United States is getting richer and richer. And after Second World War, United States is richer than U.K.
- 同一时间，英美则越来越富有。二战后，英国被美国赶超。
- But independence is coming here. Growth is starting, economic reform.
- 与此同时，独立的曙光则洒在中印两国头上。经济经过改革后开始增长。
- Growth is faster, and with projection from IMF you can see where you expect them to be in 2014.
- 增长速率加快，并且加上国际货币组织的预测，这正是两国于2014年会到达的水平。
- Now, the question is, "When will the catch up take place?" Look at, look at the United States.
- 现时的问题则是：“他们何时会赶上？”再来回看下美国。
- Can you see the bubble? The bubbles, not my bubbles, but the financial bubbles. That's the dot com bubble.
- 看的见那些泡泡？不是我的泡沫，而是经济泡沫。
- This is the Lehman Brothers doorstep there. You see it came down there. And it seems this is another rock coming down there, you know.
- 看，雷曼兄弟的门槛在这。看这里的下滑趋势。英国也因受影响而下滑。
- So they doesn't seem to go this way, these countries. They seem to go in a more humble growth way, you know.
- 这些国家走的并不是阳光大道。反而是崎岖不平的。
- And people interested in growth are turning their eyes towards Asia.
- 是故关注经济增长的人们则转移视线至亚洲。
- I can compare to Japan. This is Japan coming up. You see, Japan did it like that.
- 我们将日本也加进来。日本是日趋上升。
- We add Japan to it. And there is no doubt that fast catch up can take place.
- 日本是这样发展的。日本也加入美英的行列。毫无疑问，他们追的很快，且赶上了。
- Can you see here what Japan did? Japan did it like this, until full catch up, and then they follow with the other high-income economies.
- 看看日本怎么做的。直到完全赶上，日本是这样发展的，接下来就紧随着高收入国家的脚步。
- But the real projections for those ones, I would like to give it like this. Can be worse, can be better.
- 不过我做出的预测则是这样的。是福祸相依的。
- It's always difficult to predict, especially about the future. Now, a historian tells me it's even more difficult to predict about the past.
- 未来是难以预测的。偏偏有一位历史学家告诉我过去更难预测。
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| 重点单词 | 查看全部解释 | |||
| humble | ['hʌmbl] | 联想记忆 | ||
| domination | [.dɔmi'neiʃən] | |||
| conventional | [kən'venʃənl] | |||
| reform | [ri'fɔ:m] | 联想记忆 | ||
| bubble | ['bʌbl] | |||
| axis | ['æksis] | |||
| independence | [.indi'pendəns] | |||
| predict | [pri'dikt] | 联想记忆 | ||
| graph | [grɑ:f] |
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